The Florida Derby has been the gold standard for Derby Prep races having 15 winners of this race go on to win the Kentucky Derby since 1956. More recently, Mage finished second in this race before going on to win the Run for the Roses in 2023. You have to go back to 2017 to find the last Florida and Kentucky Derby winner when Always Dreaming became the third horse in a five year span to accomplish that feat (Orb in 2013 and Nyquist in 2016 were the other two). Maximum Security won this race in 2019 and crossed the finish line first on Derby Day, only to have his number taken down. Tiz the Law won this race in 2020 and went on to win the Belmont, which was the first leg of the 2020 Triple Crown.
Todd Pletcher has won this race last year and has won three of the last four runnings. He’s looking to win the Florida Derby for the 8th time in his Hall of Fame career. Ironically, Bob Baffert, who has records for wins in numerous Grade 1 races for three year olds across the country, has never won this race. He has only saddled one runner in this race in his Hall of Fame career. Both trainers are represented in this race, as Pletcher saddles Disruptor, making his stakes debut, and Baffert saddles the runner up in the Rebel, Madaket Road. To win this race, they’ll both have to beat the Fountain of Youth winner, Sovereignty, who is trained by another Hall of Fame trainer, Bill Mott. Post time for this Grade 1 event is scheduled for 6:42 (ET).
Gulfstream Park, Saturday 3/29/25, Race 14: The G1 Curlin Florida Derby Presented By Hill ‘N Dale Farms at Xalapa
200 Total Derby points (100-50-25-15-10)
1 – Neoequos (10-1 ML): He went off at 14-1 in the Fountain of Youth four weeks ago. That was his first stakes effort in open company. Irad Ortiz put him on the lead that day and he did a lot of the heavy lifting before fading to third. Drawing the rail is going to make life tough on the Baffert invader, Madaket Road, who was very good when going to the front in the Rebel Stakes last month. Saffie Joseph sends of this son of Neolithic who cost a mere $22K in the OBS October Sale in 2023. He’s earned almost nine times that on the track so far, but this is a deep field and I fear others will be going better at the top of the stretch.
2 – Cool Intentions (20-1 ML): This son of Authentic was most recently 5th in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes here at the beginning of January. He’s been sidelined since and has four recorded works at Palm Meadows since that race. By virtue of clearing the N1X condition, he doesn’t have a ton of other options for races at this point. He’s not nominated for the Triple Crown, so it feels like he’s coming into this race behind the eight ball. I’ll be passing on him.
3 – Smoken Boy (30-1 ML): This Puerto Rican import was a total wild card in the Sam F. Davis and he didn’t run particularly well, finishing 8th, almost 20 lengths behind the winner. He was entered for a $75K tag in an optional claiming/N1X allowance race. He finished 13 lengths behind the winner and 10 ½ lengths behind Jimmy’s Dailys, who he’ll face again today. This horse that originally cost $15K was inexplicably claimed for $75K that day. That feels like a huge reach, especially while putting him with a trainer that is 1-30 at the meet and only won 9% of her races in 2024. I don’t see him in the top 3 here.
4 – Disruptor (4-1 ML): Irad Ortiz rode four of the ten runners in this race in their last starts, and all of them finished in the money in their given races. Obviously, his business relation with Todd Pletcher has been well documented, but it still feels important that Ortiz is riding him over Neoequos, Jimmy’s Dailys, and Madaket Road. Ortiz has a pair of Belmont wins and a litany of important Grade 1 victories, however the Derby is one prize that has eluded him at this point in his career. Both Neoequos and Madaket Road finished in the money in a Derby Points race, so taking a chance on this maiden winner tells me everything I need to know about what he thinks about this son of Gun Runner that cost $1,150,000 at the Keeneland September Sale in 2023. Jimmy’s Dailys, who was ridden by Jose Ortiz that day, caught him late when he debuted here in January on the Pegasus World Cup Undercard. He came back on the Fountain of Youth Undercard and scored a decisive 9+ length victory in a seven furlong race. Mike Repole has been involved with the last two winners of this race, Fierceness and Forte, and he’s back while teaming up with Todd Pletcher and St. Elias Stable. The dam never won a race and she’s had five other runners to make it to the track. One was a debut winner as a two year old and another one had a maiden win, but that was it. That tells me that this colt must have looked incredible in the sales ring. Horses sired by Gun Runner have won 19% of the time when making their first route race. On the flip side, he’s going to have to prove that he can be as effective without competing with being administered race day Lasix. The other major players have tougher post positions, which could work in his favor. Pletcher has been quiet on the Derby Trail, but that may change today.
5 – Indecisiveness (30-1 ML): He’s coming out of the same optional claiming/N1X allowance race that both Jimmy’s Daily and Smokem Bay are coming out of. He finished third that day, notching a career high 79 Beyer Speed Figure when finishing third, beaten almost six lengths. He was a little more than three lengths behind Jimmy’s Dailys that day, going off at 53-1 in the wagering. I’m not sure his rival is a top three contender in this race, so while he is improving, I don’t think he’s as good as some of the principal players in this one.
6 – Jimmy’s Dailys (12-1 ML): Brian Lynch sends out the son of Vekoma for his 5th career start today and his first go in stakes company. He was well-backed when debuting in June in a 4 ½ furlong dash at Churchill. He drew the rail and had a rough go of things while being relegated to the back of the pack. Once he was able to escape traffic, he came with a strong bid to get third and had that race been run at five furlongs, he would have won easily. He struggled a bit when returning to the races at the end of 2024, but his last two efforts have been strong. He broke his maiden in a seven furlong sprint here in January and he was a solid second when routing for the first time last month in N1X company. While he’s one of a few runners with experience at this nine furlong distance, it’s also worth noting that he’s going to have to compete in this spot without race day Lasix. While growth can certainly be attributed to his recent speed figure spikes, both of those numbers came when running with Lasix. I don’t love him in this spot and the medication question makes it harder to accept his 12-1 price. He’s more enticing than some of the other longer priced runners, but I’m not yet convinced that he’s going to be a factor at this level of competition yet.
7 – Enterdadragon (30-1 ML): Jose D’Angelo sends out this gelded son of Outwork for the 10th time today. Both of his two career victories came on the turf. He’s bred to handle any surface and his running lines reflect that. However, he’ll need to improve about 20 points on the Beyer scale to win this race and after running nine times, I think that is an unlikely proposition while moving up to the Grade 1 level.
8 – Madaket Road (7-2 ML): After being shut out of the Derby for the last three years, Bob Baffert is back and navigating the Points System for the first time in a while. This Quality Road colt ran a huge race in the Rebel. He used his inward draw and his natural speed to secure the rail while setting hot fractions. The three runners pressing him from the outside all plummeted through the field to finish 10th, 12th, and 13th in that race. He finished ahead of 11 runners, but could not hold off Coal Battle, who is back in action in the Arkansas Derby today. Tiztastic finished 5th in the Rebel and he came back to score in the Louisiana Derby last weekend, securing his spot in the starting gate at Churchill on Derby Day. Mike Smith will be the 5th different rider in five starts for him. He’s been working well for Baffert across the country at Santa Anita. While Baffert has had recent success at Gulfstream, winning the Pegasus World Cup three times since 2017, he has only started one other horse in this race in his career. Speilberg ran in this race a few years back and finished off the board. Taking the blinkers off for the race is a curious move by Baffert. His speed and stamina was what guided him to a strong effort last out and his 46:2 four furlong drill two weeks ago would suggest that he’s going to come out running for the lead. However, removing the blinkers tells me that Baffert might want this one to try to track the leaders, especially if there is a scramble for the early lead. At the end of the day, I think Sovereignty is the better horse and Disruptor might have the higher ceiling. I do think his last race makes him a contender here though.
9 – Tappan Street (5-1 ML): Brad Cox sends out this son of Into Mischief who is coming off a runner-up finish in the Holy Bull Stakes at the beginning of February. He ran well that day when coming from off the pace to take the lead, only to be passed in the late stages by Burnham Square. That one came back to run a dull race here in the Fountain of Youth, so I’m left to wonder how deep of a race that actually was. Cox skipped that race and opted to wait until this spot to make his third start. He’s worked six times, in the last six weeks, never missing a Saturday since returning to the work tab on 2/15. He’s one of four million dollar purchases running in the two Grade 1 Derby prep races this weekend (Disruptor here and both Sandman and Cornucopian in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn). He paired his Beyers in his first two starts and now makes his second career route race. He has more tactical speed than Sovereignty, which could be a weapon, but that could also leave him hanging out to dry from the nine hole if Saez isn’t careful. He’s another contender, but I do have a few reservations.
10 – Sovereignty (8-5 ML): While he doesn’t have the flashy Beyer Speed Figure that Journalism put up at Santa Anita in the San Felipe, I don’t think he was fully cranked for the Fountain of Youth last time out. He was last of six down the backstretch while tracing a moderate pace. He advanced along the rail and then tipped out with a four furlong bid on the turn. Junior Alvarado had to work a little bit, but once he switched leads he surged late to nail River Thames on the wire. One thing to note is that Alvarado is sidelined right now, so Manny Franco gets the pick up mount for Bill Mott. His outside post is typically not ideal for the nine furlong distance here at Gulfstream, but I don’t think that affects him for the race he wants to run. He’ll settle in behind runners and begin to advance down the back side. He’s 2-2 since moving into graded stakes company, winning the Street Sense with authority in October at Churchill. Looking at the efforts that we’ve seen lately from the runners-up, Tiztastic and Sandman, that effort looks even better than it did that afternoon. On big race days, tracks certainly can favor speed, so watching how the track is playing in the dirt races leading up to this race is worth paying mind to. However, I think as long as he’s competing on a fair surface, he’s the best horse in this race.
The Verdict: 10-4-8
While it’s not particularly sexy, I’ll call it like I see it here. The favorite Sovereignty (#10) is on a short list of horses that I think can win the Derby this year. I don’t think he was fully cranked for his start in the Fountain of Youth, but it didn’t matter as he got up in time. His effort in the Street Sense last year was excellent and now he comes into this race in better shape than he was last time. I think he’s too good for this group.
Todd Pletcher has owned this race the way that Bob Baffert has owned just about every three year old Derby Points race west of the Mississippi River. They’ll square off here as Pletcher sends out Disruptor (#4) and Baffert sends out Madaket Road (#8). Both horses have been impressive, but I do have questions about both runners in this spot. This is the first spot where Disruptor will compete without race day medication. I liked his maiden breaking effort here in his last start and I don’t think the added distance will be an issue. Madaket Road was sneaky good in the Rebel, especially when considering where the other pacesetters finished in that spot. While two of those horses were cheap speed, one was a Grade 3 winner. The fact that he’s shipping here tells me that he’s not in the top tier of Baffert horses in the stable, but he’s moving up the ladder while others are falling off. However, taking the blinkers off makes me wonder what kind of tactics are going to be employed here. Both of these runners could easily win this race, but I see them both horses that I’d be backing up with as opposed to keying
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
