There’s only five runners in this year’s Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, but this is a very talented collective group. As a result of the small field, the number of points allocated from this race has been reduced.That will have some implications for both Barnes and Baeza for sure in this spot, as both are looking to lock up enough points to make it into the body of the Derby field. In order to do that, they’ll have to defeat Journalism, who was excellent when winning the San Felipe Stakes here last month and Citizen Bull, who was the winner of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. With Keeneland canceling today’s races and pushing them to Tuesday, there will be more focus on this card and the Wood Memorial Card at Aqueduct. Post time for this Grade contest is set for 4:30 (PT).
Santa Anita Park, Saturday 4/5/25, Race 10: The G1 Santa Anita Derby
131 Total Derby points (75- 37 ½ – 18 ½)
1 – Journalism (6-5 ML): He came back from a ten week break with a smashing win in the San Felipe Stakes here last month. He ran the top Beyer Figure of any current Derby contender (108) in that race. He was professional every step of the way, breaking well, then settling along the rail behind Barnes. You could tell the that Mellencamp, who is also trained by Baffert, was trying to keep him pinned down inside, but when the real running began, that one couldn’t keep pace, allowing this talented colt to get into position to come with a three wide bid on the turn. He easily passed Rodriguez, and then switched leads and pulled clear of Barnes, to win by almost two lengths. He’s sired by Curlin out of a talented Uncle Mo mare. He was much the best when beating Getaway Car and Gaming in the Los Alamitos Futurity in his prior start. He’s undefeated at two turns and while a bounce is a little bit of a concern, I think he makes more sense in this race today. I think he wins this race and heads to Louisville as the Derby Favorite.
2 – Citizen Bull (9-5 ML): Imagine paying $675,000 for a horse and having him compete in a race where he is the horse that cost the least amount of money! That is the case here with the winner of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, who also has amassed the biggest bankroll in this field up to this point. He was a two-time Grade 1 winner as a two year old and he started off his three year old season with a stylish win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes when beating both Rodriguez and Madaket Road. While both of those runners ran okay in their next starts, that duo is nowhere near the quality of Journalism and Barnes. He’s been working well and he’s a very good gate horse, so I do see him getting the lead, while Barnes is tracking him, while applying token pressure from the outside. He’s had relatively easy leads in his last three victories, and I’m not sure he’s going to have to work too hard to make the lead in this spot. The bigger question is going to be if he’s good enough to hold off the likes of Journalism and Barnes in the final furlong when going nine furlongs. He’s going to have every chance to do that, and if he’s sitting there as the third choice, he might be a good value play. This is a $500K Grade 1 race, so there will be no free passes, but it’s also worth keeping in mind that Barnes needs this race more.
3 – Westwood (20-1 ML): It looks like CRK Stable and John Shirreffs did the racing office a solid by entering this $700K maiden son of Authentic in this race. He couldn’t keep pace with Baeza in February, and was clearly second behind Voldemort last month. The winner, who is also a Baffert runner, wasn’t super impressive that day, and despite having to steady on the first turn, this colt was simply not as good on that day. There are high expectations for this colt, as he cost $700K at the Keeneland September Sale in 2023. However, I don’t think he’s ready to fully realize that expected potential today.
4 – Barnes (3-1 ML): This son of Into Mischief sold for $3.2 million at the Fasig-Tipton August Sale in 2023, and he’s looked the part early on in his career. He broke his maiden at Churchill in November, getting up just in time in a 5 ½ furlong dash. He was much the best in the Grade 3 San Vincente Stakes when stretching out to seven furlongs in January. He returned to compete in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes last month and he had everything his own way, but he couldn’t quite hold off Journalism, who was just better that day. He’s had four solid works since that start and appears ready to try again today. I do think he’s quicker than Citizen Bull, so Juan Hernandez may try to get to the lead ahead of his stablemate. If he doesn’t get there, I suspect Hernandez is going to be content to let him track the Breeders’ Cup winner. The San Felipe was the first time he was on an uncontested lead and while he did try to fight back when Journalism passed him, his rival had all of the momentum. Perhaps he wants to be more of a stalker like he was in his two sprint wins. While all of this is true, my concern is that he’s just not as good as the favorite right now. He certainly is bred well enough to improve, but I think Journalism might have the pedigree edge as the races get longer.
5 – Baeza (6-1 ML): The dam Puca is becoming the Leslie’s Lady of the 2020’s as no other broodmare has come close to the level of success she’s had recently. She foaled the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner, Mage and the 2024 Belmont winner, Dornoch, who also competed in the Derby. It’s going to take a big effort to have her represented with a foal this year though. She foaled this McKinzie colt that fetched $1,200,000 at the Keeneland September Sale in 2023. John Shirreffs had him debut in a turf race at Del Mar in December, but he’s been much sharper since switching to the dirt for his last two efforts. He ran into Rodriguez when he ran a 100 Beyer for his maiden breaking victory on January 4th. That one has come back to finish second and third in a pair of Derby Points races. He’ll be competing in New York this afternoon, a few hours before this race goes off. He easily beat Mellencamp and Westwood when they met in a maiden special weight here in February. That race was a little too close for the San Felipe, so Shirreffs opted to wait for this spot for him to face winners for the first time. He sure looked good in his last start, but he’s facing a few really good runners that have proven to be faster than him up to this point. While it’s a moot point right now, I think this one would have been an interesting addition to the Toyota Blue Grass, which will now be run on Tuesday. When picking against Journalism to win in the San Felipe, my concern was that with the outside post in a small field, with multiple Baffert runners, it was going to be hard for him to get the trip that he wanted to get. Journalism was just better than his Baffert rivals that day, but I’m not sure that is going to be the case with this runner today. I like this horse going forward, but I think this is a tough spot for him right now.
The Verdict: 1-2-4
It’s boring and it goes along with the morning line odds-maker, but this five horse affair is not a great betting race. It is, however, a fascinating showdown that racing fans should appreciate. As these races get longer, I think Journalism, who is already undefeated in three starts at two turns, should continue to get better. Barnes had the better trip and every advantage they could have asked for, but he was two lengths short that day. While that race should certainly help from a fitness standpoint, you could argue it did the same thing for this Curlin colt. Perhaps a larger field would make things a little easier for either of the Baffert runners, since they figure to be running 1-2 down the backstretch. However, I expect a similar outcome to the San Felipe in this race today, with Journalism traveling better in the final furlong.
Citizen Bull is a tough customer when he gets to run his race and that has been the case in his last three starts. He faced a good field in the Breeders’ Cup when he pulled off the 15-1 upset, but he got the right trip on that track which was kind to front end speed horses. I do think this colt has yet to have been looked in the eye by a better runner and I worry that there’s two of them in this spot. We’ll see how tough he really is in this race.
The ceiling is high for Barnes and he’s been very sharp in his first three starts. He posted a big figure in defeat last time out and he’s been sharper in the mornings since having the blinkers back on. He needs the points more than both Journalism and Citizen Bull, so this really isn’t a spot where Hernandez and Baffert can afford to experiment too much. I also am not expecting him to try to duel with Citizen Bull, as you really don’t see Baffert horses dueling among themselves. He should be in the thick of things, but I see him has having the third best chance of winning this race.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
