While this nine furlong contest has a ton of history, the recent history of this race hasn’t been as fruitful. Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 was the last winner of this race to win the Kentucky Derby. Mo Donegal and Empire Maker are the only two other horses this century to win this race and win a Triple Crown race. Funny Cide lost to Empire Maker in this race in 2003 before turning the tables on his rival in Louisville the following month. Both Cloud Computing and Early Voting parlayed in the money finishes in this race to Preakness victories for Chad Brown. 12 horses are entered in this race, which is definitely going to be a competitive contest. The weather forecast up and down the East Coast is not great this weekend, so that is going to be something to keep an eye on. Post time for this nine furlong race is scheduled for 6:10 (ET).
Aqueduct, Saturday 4/5/25, Race 12: The G2 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented By Resorts World Casino
200 Total Derby points (100-50-25-15-10)
1 – Rodriguez (5-2 ML): Baffert is back and sending his horses across the country in hopes to get as many horses into the starting gate on Derby Day. He sent Getaway Car to Virginia, Madaket Road to Florida, and Cornucopian to Arkansas over the last few weeks, with all three of these horses finishing off the board. He’s leaving his aces, Citizen Bull and Barnes back home at Santa Anita. This Authentic colt has proven that he’s not on their level, hence the need to send him across the country. Baffert has won this race twice in his career, scoring with Congaree in 2001 and Bob and John in 2006. He ran his best career speed figure in his second career start, where he broke his maiden. It’s worth mentioning that was the only time he ran with race day Lasix. He’ll also be facing a larger field for the first time today. He’s only faced 18 rivals in 4 career starts where he’ll be facing 11 today, assuming everyone competes. The rail draw likely commits him to try to set the pace. Sand Devil, Grande, and Bear Claw Necklace could also be trying to get into the act in the early stages. When looking at his pedigree, I also am left to wonder if he’s going to be more effective between 7-8 furlongs. He’s going to take money in this race because the public often is backing Baffert in these big spots. However, I think this one is vulnerable, and this feels like a good spot to get value elsewhere.
2 – Captain Cook (7-2 ML): I definitely had my doubts about this Practical Joke colt in the Withers when we last saw him compete. Most of the better horses sired by Practical Joke have been more successful in one turn races, much like the sire himself. His horses are still capable at two turns, but many of them seem to lose a little bit of their edge. On the other hand, we saw this colt thrive in the Withers. He stalked a sensible pace, came with a three wide bid, and then pulled clear in the final furlong while stopping the clock in 1:51:4, which is a legitimate time for this course in February. Rick Dutrow, who has been on this path before when he won the 2008 with Big Brown, opted to bypass the Gotham where he would have cut back in distance, in favor of running in this spot. He’s been working well in the mornings and he figures to get a similar trip to the one he got in the Withers. He’s won his two races on this course by a combined 11 ½ lengths. His maiden breaking score came in the slop two starts back so an off track certainly shouldn’t hinder his chances. He probably should be the favorite in this race, but with this Baffert shipper coming in, David Aragona made him the second choice in the wagering. I think there’s a real chance that we’ll get fair value on this colt in this race. I definitely see him as a contender.
3 – Tiger Twenty Four (30-1 ML): Three weeks ago, this son of Lord Nelson broke his maiden in his third career start when racing in a one turn mile race at Gulfstream. He certainly took a decent step forward that day after two average efforts in January. Bill Mott isn’t typically this aggressive, but after seeing this one work 47 flat at Gulfstream last week, I’d think that this one is doing well enough to warrant taking this kind of swing. His regular rider, Junior Alvarado, is sidelined so the 2023 Derby winning jockey, Javier Castellano, will take over for the first time. It’s also fair to point out that this will be the first time he races without race day Lasix. He’s definitely a longshot in this race, but I think at this distance, I’m going to be looking elsewhere.
4 – My Mitole (20-1 ML): This son of Mitole is one of three runners that competed in the Gotham Stakes last month that will be trying to stretch out to nine furlongs today. The winner of that race, Flood Zone, is eyeing up an unconventional road to Louisville by shipping to Dubai for the UAE Derby this afternoon. This colt ran 4th that day, getting tired late while posting a career top speed figure. Carlos Martin adds blinkers today, and I’m not sure that is going to help him much in this spot. I don’t really see him as a nine furlong horse.
5 – Sand Devil (8-1 ML): He was one of three notable New York breds to compete in the Gotham last month, but he’s the only Empire bred that will be trying to take down the signature race of the Aqueduct Spring Meet. He had a bit of a bobble at the break, but it didn’t stop him from competing for the early lead while racing in between rivals. He put away the longshot to his inside, but despite battling hard, he could go with Flood Zone in the late stages of that race. The dam was a New York bred stakes winner at two turns and she foaled Can You Diggit, who won the Evan Shipman Stakes at this distance at Saratoga. Horses sired by Violence have won 15.8% of the time (57-359) when running at two turns on the dirt over the last five years. There is a chance that he improves at this longer distance, but I want to see this horse relax more than he did last time out. If he tries to pressure Rodriguez, I don’t think it’s going to end well for him. If he can settle just off the pace in a comfortable stalking spot, I think he’ll have a shot.
6 – Hill Road (9-2 ML): For as much success that Chad Brown has had in New York over the past 15 years or so, this is one of only a few trophies that has eluded him. He sends out this son of Quality Road who caught the eye in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile this past fall when he finished 3rd at 61-1. He was the only closer in that race that was gaining ground over that course at Del Mar. The plan following that race was to keep him in the U.S. while running for Brown. I was a bit surprised to see him make his seasonal debut alongside his stablemate, Chancer McPatrick in the Tampa Bay Derby last month. Brown clearly doesn’t like racing at Gulfstream, but closers struggled mightily in dirt route races at Tampa on their big race days this year. He is definitely going to have to take a step forward in this race. His works at Payson have been a little sharper and the larger field and the pace scenario should both work to his benefit. I’m typically more comfortable playing horses ridden by Joel Rosario who like to be on or near the lead, so how he handles this one remains to be seen. I’ve liked this colt since the Breeders’ Cup though and I’d not ready to give up on him yet.
7 – Grande (5-1 ML): Todd Pletcher has owned this race, winning seven times since 2010. He’s sending out this Curlin colt for his third start while hoping to remain undefeated. The dam ran 10 times, all of which came on the turf, with a Grade 1 victory being her best result. This colt has had no issues with the main dirt track at Gulfstream, scoring twice there over the winter. His N1X allowance score came at this distance, and he finished up very nicely in that race. None of the runners from that contest ran particularly well in the Florida Derby last weekend though, finishing 6th, 7th, and 9th, and a minimum of 16 lengths behind the winner in a race that wasn’t particularly fast. Pletcher’s $1.15 million dollar colt, Disruptor, didn’t run very well either, finishing 5th. None of that flatters this colt, and breaking outside of Rodriguez, My Mitole, and Sand Devil likely means that he’s going to have to prove he can settle off the pace or overcome a wide trip. He’s another runner that will likely be a shorter price than he should be, and I’m not convinced he’s the best fit with this field.
8 – Passion Rules (12-1 ML): Like the Pletcher runner next door, this Friesan Fire colt also comes into this race undefeated. He was a two time winner at the Fair Grounds before shipping to Oakalwn and taking down a nice allowance race there. Despite struggling a little bit at Oaklawn this year, Cox’s barn is rolling nationwide, winning 27% of their races in 2025. He locked up a spot in the starting gate for the Derby with Tappan Street last week. This one is a much more modest colt, who cost $960,000 less than his stablemate at auction. He’s been well-spotted in races with reasonable competition, but this is a big step up in class. He’s owned by Calumet Farm, and they love to see their silks on big race days, even if their horses are overmatched. He’s going to need to take a big step forward to remain unbeaten.
9 – Bear Claw Necklace (50-1 ML): Saffie Joseph won this race two years ago with Lord Miles, but I think he’s going to be up against it today with this son of Lord Nelson, who is the longest shot on the board. After breaking his maiden in December when going seven furlongs, he came back three months later in a N1X allowance race going a mile at Gulfstream. He was tiring late that day where he finished third, nine lengths behind the race winner. He’s another colt that cost little at the auction, so his ceiling certainly could be limited at best. However, it is worth mentioning that he could be a pace factor in this race. If Maragh thinks that his only shot is to try to steal this on the, he might be all over him in the early stages to try to outsprint Rodriguez to the rail. Those tactics could certainly benefit a horse like Hill Road, that is likely looking for a fast pace to develop in front of him.
10 – McAfee (20-1 ML): Rick Dutrow also sends out this colt, who is a half to the champion filly, Thorpedo Anna. He ran a career top speed figure when finishing 5th in the Gotham Stakes last month. That was his first start in over three months and he was also taking a big step up in class, so he likely needed that race. This will be his first try at two turns and doing so when breaking from Post 10 at this distance on a track that is 1 ⅛ miles in circumference is not ideal. He figures to be a horse that could be racing in the middle of the pack, and he could get first run on some of the closers in this spot. Eric Cancel is picking up the mount for the first time aboard this Cloud Computing colt. The pedigree to get the distance is there and I do like his progression coming into this race. Like his sire, his ceiling for this race might be an in the money finish, but for longer priced runners in this race, which has had a recent history with some longshots winning, he’s the one that interests me the most.
11 – Statesman (15-1 ML): Samuel Marin is having a strong 2025 as he’s currently the leading rider at Tampa Bay Downs for their meet which wraps up next month. He’s missing a Saturday there to come to New York to ride this Constitution colt for Shug McGaughey. After three weak efforts to start his career, he came to Tampa and turned things around with Marin in the saddle. He broke his maiden and cleared the N1X allowance condition in his two starts at Tampa this winter. He came from off the pace to win both of those races, which isn’t always the easiest trip there. He’s drawn a tough post for his acid test today and while I prefer others, I could see him taking a decent step forward in his third race of this current form cycle.
12 – Omaha Omaha (30-1 ML): Michael Gorham sends out this Audible colt who has been in last place at the first point of call in all seven of his career races. With post 12, Raul Mena doesn’t have much choice other than to get him to the back of the field and try to make another sustained bid here. His speed figures are slowly improving and he’s finished 3rd in his last two Derby Points races. However, he was well-beaten in both of them, finishing more than 8 lengths behind the winner both times. A faster pace likely benefits him here, but I think third place would be his ceiling in this spot, and I think at this level, his floor is a little lower than it’s been as well.
The Verdict: 2-10-6
In my opinion, I think the one to beat in this race is going to be the Withers winner, Captain Cook (#2). Even though that field wasn’t very good, he was excellent that day and he looked like there was more left in the tank. I was definitely hesitant to take a son of Practical Joke at nine furlongs, especially at that point in the season, but he proved me wrong. I think he’s going to get a favorable trip, behind some suspect runners setting the pace. With the Baffert runner in here, the price should be more than fair on him as the second or possibly third choice in the wagering, depending on how hard the public plays Pletcher’s horse.
I’ll use his less heralded stablemate, McAfee (#10) as the second choice in this race. He’s trending in the right direction while making his second start off a layoff. He needed the Gotham, which was a stronger race this year than it’s been in recent runnings. He’s bred to handle this distance, so I could see him moving forward in this race.
Hill Road (#6) is going to be coming on late in this race, but I do wonder how much work he’ll leave himself to do. He’s been in last place in both of his last two starts before passing some horses late. Citizen Bull was a longshot winner of the Breeders’ Cup, but he’s come back to run well, suggesting that effort was not a fluke. I can forgive the Tampa race, but he’ll need to be much better to get home first today.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
