This race was put on the map back in 1999 when Charismatic ran huge here two weeks before the Derby and then went on to score with big efforts in the Derby and the Preakness. It’s become a last chance kind of race for some horses to get enough points to put them over the top and gain entry into the Derby. However, it’s probably more of a possible Preakness Prep this year since eight of the nine runners in this race have 0 Derby Points so far, and 20 points isn’t likely going to cut it. Since so few Derby Horses run back in two weeks for the Preakness, this has become a good spot, five weeks away from that race, for a little bit of a late blooming three year old to strut their stuff. Post time for this Grade 3 contest is set for 5:16 PM (ET).
This is the last race in this series for this season. Make sure to check the ITM website frequently leading up to the Derby because there is going loads of content both on the website and for ITM Plus Subscribers that will be essential reading/listening/viewing in order to attack the Derby this year!
Keeneland, Saturday 4/12/25, Race 9: The Grade 3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes:
42 Total Derby points (20-10-6-4-2)
1 – Hard as Life (30-1 ML): The longest shot on the board on the morning line was last seen finishing 6th in the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway back in January. He’s never competed on the dirt before and he’s coming here off a three month break while taking a sizable step up in class. He did work okay over this course, but this feels like it’s asking a lot from a horse that is still eligible for the first level allowance condition.
2 – Bracket Buster (20-1 ML): This son of Vekoma has been on the bench since October when he finished 5th, beaten nine lengths behind Sovereignty in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes. The top three runners in that race are Derby Bound at this point, so his 5th place finish, while not a great effort, certainly looks a little better. Victoria Oliver has lost 56 consecutive races with horses coming back from a 61-180 day layoff. She did have a runner finish first earlier this week in an off the turf race, but he blatantly interfered with his rival, almost certainly costing that one a placing, and was disqualified. You have to go back to March of 2022 to find the last time she won a two turn race with a horse off this kind of layoff, and that was with a turf horse. On the plus side, this one has a win over this track, breaking his maiden in the fall when going off at 33-1. Manny Franco is named to ride, which would make him the 5th different rider in as many starts. The fact that he ran his two best races at two turns, suggests to me that the pairing with Gun Runner was a positive match to the dam which never won beyond six furlongs in her racing career. My gut tells me that barring anything out of the ordinary, his ceiling would be rounding out the trifecta in a race like this. However, he’s probably the longshot with the most upside in this field.
3 – Bullard (9-2 ML): Michael McCarthy has the likely Derby favorite, Journalism, gearing up for the Run for the Roses in three weeks. This Gun Runner colt looks like he has some potential too. He was excellent in his first two starts at Del Mar, coming from off the pace at the end of the Summer Meet to win going away and then scoring in the Grade 3 Bob Hope during the Fall Meet in November. He came back in the San Vicente at Santa Anita at the beginning of the year and was a little flat as he couldn’t keep pace with Barnes, who pretty much had things his own way. He’s been sidelined since that race after missing a month of training in between February and March. He’s been working well in California, but there’s not many opportunities for three year olds in stakes company out west at this point. The dam foaled two runners that were talented at one turn (Cascais and Mundaye Call), but none of them have ventured farther than one mile, and just about all of those efforts were one turn races. This one was sired by Gun Runner, so perhaps there’s more stamina in his pedigree than some of the dam’s other foals. The dirt course at this meet has felt demanding, so this might not be the easiest spot to stretch out for the first time, especially while coming back from over three months away from the game. I think he’s the class of this field, but I do have some reservations.
4 – Rolando (6-1 ML): He’s one of two horses that ran in the Lafayette Stakes on Monday. That race did not offer any Derby Points and was originally scheduled to be run 8 days before this race. Whether or not that has an impact on his status for this race remains to be seen. If he does run in this race, it would be the first time that he’s going two turns in a race. He was very sharp when winning the Hutchenson at Gulfstream two starts, so his dull effort the other day, especially when the favorite wasn’t the best version of himself, was discouraging. His three wins have come at six furlongs and he’s tired in the stretch in his four starts that were longer than that. While the pace picture could be a little kinder in a two turn race, he’s not jumping off the page as a horse that is going to improve when going two turns,
5 – Native Runner (15-1 ML): This Ken McPeek trainee has made some improvements over the last two starts, winning both races at the Fair Grounds. Before we get too excited, it is worth mentioning that he beat some pretty soft fields there. He broke his maiden in a maiden optional claiming race. He was closer to a soft pace in a five horse, optional claiming/starter allowance race. Jose Ortiz was a little more aggressive with him in that spot, and McPeek has secured him for another ride in this spot. I suspect this is going to be too big of a class jump for him in this spot.
6 – Gosger (7-2 ML): Brendam Walsh brings this Nyquist colt to town after a smashing maiden win when going a one turn mile at Gulfstream in February. Two first time starters from that race came back to break their maidens in their last start. Pitkin was a close second that day, but he struggled when trying two turns on this course earlier in the week. A bad start didn’t help his cause though. The dam has foaled some quality runners, most notably Harvey’s Lil Goil who was a stakes winner on both turf and dirt. Brendan Walsh has been off to a strong start at this meet and he teams up with Irad Ortiz. This will be the first time that Ortiz rides this one. He’s one that would likely be pretty pleased if Rolando opted not to go in this race. He has some speed and could use that to secure the rail in the early stages. Praetor would be the only other one that would be likely to really force the issue from a pace standpoint. I do think he’s worth upgrading if Rolando isn’t racing. If that one doesn’t go.
7 – Praetor (2-1 ML): He was an easy winner in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream which was particularly fast last month. However, he was making his first start since September in that race. Tyler Gaffalione was riding him hard in that race, perhaps encouraging him to finish well in a spot where he might have been tiring a bit. Flavien Prat will get the call for Chad Brown, and I see him as a horse that has every right to improve when going two turns here. He took a big step forward in his second career start, beating Sovereignty, who is headed to Louisville in three weeks. His dam, Curlin’s Approval, was a multiple graded stakes winner. Most of her races were of the one turn variety, but she did win the Grade 2 Royal Delta with ease when going this 1 1/16 mile distance. Her first two foals to make it to the track weren’t spectacular, but this one certainly feels more talented. If Rolando doesn’t go here, he might have a relatively easy time of making the lead, and thus making his job easier. If that one is in the race, he might wind up trying to stalk the leaders and ounce on the turn. He should be right in the mix with this group.
8 – Hypnus (6-1 ML): He was my pick in the Louisiana Derby last month when making his third career start. He was a strong debut winner in the slop at the Fair Grounds in January. That effort was good enough to put him in the starting gate for the Rebel stakes in February at Oaklawn. He had a rough trip that day, which made me believe that he was capable of improving in the Louisiana Derby last time out, when facing an average field for that kind of race. His speed figures have all remained in the same neighborhood after three starts. Perhaps he wasn’t completely ready for the 1 3/16 mile trip of that race. Blinkers get added today and after being unseated from a mount earlier in the week, Luis Saez should be in the saddle for this race. This will be his first time riding this Into Mischief colt since his regular rider, Brian Hernandez, will be riding Thorpedo Anna in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn this afternoon. I think this horse still has a high ceiling and I like the cut back in distance, while also facing a softer group. I think he can move forward enough to win this race.
9 – Touchy (8-1 ML): This Nyquist colt ran on Monday in the Lafayette Stakes, which was won by Colloquial. He finished third, about 4 ½ lengths behind that heavy favorite who definitely had a pace edge in a field that was reduced to five starters after some scratches. This horse has started six times and all six Beyers fall in the range of 76-79. I don’t think much has changed since Monday that would convince me that he’s going to be able to improve by about 10 points, which I think he’d need to do to win this race. I’m not sure he plans on running or not, but I’ll be looking in another direction if he competes.
The Verdict: 8-7-6
This is not an easy race to figure out, and having the two runners entered in this spot after racing on Monday also makes things complicated. Rolando is a speed threat that definitely changes the pace dynamics in this race if he’s racing. Since the Lafayette was rescheduled from last Friday to Monday, that leaves only four days off before starting in this race. If he doesn’t run in this race, I would definitely upgrade both Gosger (#6) and Praetor (#7), who figure to be a part of the early pace puzzle as well. If he runs, I’d consider upgrading Bullard (#3). However, I’ll go back to the well with Hypnus (#8) as the top pick. He was a little flat in the Louisiana Derby after a troubled trip in the Rebel Stakes. Both of those races were stronger than this Grade 3 race that does have many question marks. I think cutting back in distance will serve him well on a course that has been demanding over this first week of racing.
Both Gosger and Praetor are unproven over two turns, although, I do feel a little more comfortable about their ability to excel at this distance from their pedigrees, especially when compared with Bullard. Praetor ran a much stronger race in his second career start, so I’d expect him to take a step forward in his second start off the layoff. Gosger has a Grade 1 winning half-sibling who excelled in two turn races on the turf. Irad Ortiz has been riding very well and his runners aren’t always getting pounded at the windows the way they do in New York.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
[…] https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2025-kentucky-derby-the-grade-3-stonestreet-lexington-stak… […]