This is the first of four stops on the Derby Trail in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Gun Runner Stakes is a recent addition to the Derby Points races. While there aren’t true contenders for the Derby in this race just yet, these are the kinds of races where talented horses can start to make names for themselves. Eight runners, all coming from top barns, are looking to start accumulating some points toward gaining entry into the starting gate at Churchill on the first Saturday in May. The board should be wide open here, with the morning line favorite slotted at 7-2.
Fair Grounds Race Course Race 11: The $100K Gun Runner Stakes (Post Time: 5:45 PM CST)
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Mesquite (9-2 ML): Cherie DeVaux sends out this recent maiden breaker, who is one three co-second choices in the wagering on the morning line. He faced a good field in a fast maiden allowance race at Keeneland back in October. He stretched out from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles for his next start at Churchill where he drew an inside post. He was last early on after some crowding at the break forced him to back of the pack. He came with a wide, prolonged rally, and had to overcome Carson Street forcing him wider on the turn. He was a bit green in the stretch, but she finished nicely once switching leads. Carson Street ended up third and he came back to decimate a maiden allowance field at the Fair Grounds in a race that was originally scheduled to be run on the turf. He’s the third horse to race from an unraced Mineshaft mare. All three of her foals have been winners, but he’s the first to score at two turns. He’s faced strong maiden fields in two tries and I think he has a higher ceiling than some of the other horses in here.
2 – Chip Honcho (9-2 ML): Both him and Liberty National debuted in the same seven furlong maiden allowance race this fall at Keeneland. He was clearly the better animal that afternoon, finishing second to Dr Kapur, while the morning line favorite in this race, Liberty National, finished 6th, beaten 11 lengths. Both horses came back at Churchill to score in different maiden special weight heats. He was the winner in a one turn mile race on a muddy race course that was sealed, while Liberty National scored a week later in a two turn contest. Paco Lopez is riding this Connect colt for Steve Asmussen, and the fact that he is only Asmussen runner here while three horses from his barn are racing at Remington tonight, tells me that they are high on this colt. I like that he paired the two Beyer figures, suggesting he’s ready to move forward in this race. I like the pedigree here and I think he’s going to move forward in this spot.
3 – Liberty National (7-2 ML): He certainly got some style points for his strong win at Churchill when trying this two turn trip for the first time. He was not as impressive in a fast maiden allowance race at Keeneland, but that race clearly served him well. 3 of the 8 runners in that race came back to win their next starts. Brian Hernandez landing here instead of Very Connected, tells me this barn is higher on this Maxfield colt. At this point in the two year old season, there is something to be said for horses that have proven that they can win in two turn races and I think Ken McPeek is one of the better trainers in the country in terms of having his two year olds ready to perform at a high level in route races early in their careers. However, assuming this one goes off as the shortest price on the board, I’m not sure the race shape is going to be great for him today. There isn’t a ton of early speed signed on for this race, so despite the long stretch run at the Fair Grounds, he might be at a bit of a disadvantage. He certainly can win this race, and from a multi-race perspective, he’s one of four or five horses I’d want to be using, however, if there are better prices to be had on those other three runners, I’m going to lean in that direction.
4 – Quality Mischief (10-1 ML): Brad Cox sends out a trio of well-bred horses that have generally been underwhelming thus far in their careers. This son of Quality Road earned his maiden win at Horseshoe Indianapolis in a race that was originally carded for the lawn. That wasn’t a fast race where he was able to get up in the shadow of the wire with a grinding late rally. He’s going to need to take a big step forward in this race to be competitive. He’s starting at 10-1 on the morning line, and he feels like the least likely winner in the field. I think if there was a different trainer attached to him, the morning line odds would likely be closer to 20-1. With two other options from this barn, there’s a reasonable chance that his final price will get there, but honestly, I think the fair odds for this one would be closer to 40-1.
5 – Crown the Buckeye (5-1 ML): There are two Derby Points races today and Mike Maker is represented in both of them with a pair of pricey Yaupon colts that have been impressive in state bred races in New York and Ohio. With the name Crown the Buckeye, it isn’t hard to guess that this colt is the Ohio bred that has a pair of very good efforts in state bred stakes company at Thistledown and Mahoning Valley in his last two starts. Horses sired by Yaupon have been off to a crazy successful start with his freshman class. He’s had horses make 173 starts thus far in 2025, and 39 of them have found the Winner’s Circle (23%). His runners have won 10 stakes races thus far with 31 starters (32%). Maker has four horses, including this one that are responsible for 6 of the stakes wins. Yaupon was a Grade 1 winning sprinter, so it’s no surprise that his runners have had the most success in dirt sprints thus far, scoring 26% of the time. He has only had seven starters at two turns on dirt or synthetic up to this point, and two of them have been winners, this colt being one of them. His win at Mahoning Valley was very good and that track can be a demanding course. He went off at 1-20 odds that day, so he clearly wasn’t facing opposition that was terribly tough, however, his win was stylish and that race earned him the top Beyer Speed Figure in the field. From a pedigree perspective I’m not sure how much farther he’ll want to go, and whether or not he’ll be as competitive with tougher competition. This will be a good prove it weekend for Yaupon and these colts that Maker trains. I see him as a contender in this spot.
6 – Arabia Wild (8-1 ML): The second Cox runner is a Gun Runner colt owned by Sumaya US Stables. He started his career at Horseshoe Indianapolis, running second there in a pair of one mile maiden races. Typically, Cox is not sending his best stock there, which makes sense as the maiden purses there $32K as opposed to the six figure maiden races in Kentucky. While some horses that have started there for Cox have gone on to be decent runners, but by enlarge, these are the horses that often wind up in claiming races or in horses of racing age auctions. He did score in a maiden race on this course at this distance last month, but the effort wasn’t great on paper and it certainly wasn’t a “wow” performance from a visual standpoint. I think this is another runner would be a much higher starting price if there was a different trainer attached.
7 – Very Connected (9-2 ML): The other McPeek runner is another horse that I’ve struggled with as to how he fits at this level. He’s been gradually improving with each start, competing in races at two turns in his last three. I thought he was an interesting longshot possibility in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last month at Churchill. His effort in the Street Sense was better than it looked on paper. He was caught in traffic behind dead cover, which put a hold on his rally, whereas the race winner was easily able to progress with a wide move on the turn. He ran on well late that day to get into third. He was completely overlooked in the KJC, going off at 34-1. However, he was too far back early on, and while he was gaining late, it was more of a grinding move, as opposed to a strong surge. He paired his Beyer Figures in those races and this could be a spot where he is eligible to improve. However, he has less tactical speed than his stablemate, and while the pace in the KJC was solid, I’m not convinced the set up is going to be as good for him today. I’m leaning against, but if his odds floated up to closer to 8-1, I’d be more inclined to take a shot with him in this wide open race. As of now, I see him as more of a deeper saver in the multi-race wagers.
8 – Mister Punch (6-1 ML): The third Cox runner is probably the best of his trio, as he’s coming off a strong effort to score in a $100K maiden claiming race at Churchill when going two turns on the dirt for the first time. He debuted in a seven furlong turf race at Kentucky Downs two months prior to his maiden breaking effort. The fact that he was offered for a $100K tag in his first dirt start was a little concerning, seeing as how his owners paid $350K for him in October of 2024. Brad Cox trained a half brother to this colt, who won the Grade 3 Phillip Iselin Stakes at Monmouth and won the Louisiana Stakes on this course. The dam’s best horse to race with United, who was a multiple graded stakes winner on the turf, excelling at longer distances, narrowly losing to Bricks and Mortar in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Turf. I don’t think the distance is going to be a problem for this one and from a figures standpoint, his last race fits with this group. However, the outside post is not ideal and the fact that he was entered for a tag at a time when there were several maiden allowance options at the same distance in Kentucky, is a little concerning. He’s another one that I would think fair odds would be closer to 8-1 or 10-1 in this race, with Cox and Saez teaming up, I don’t think we’re going to get there. I’ll likely be watching this one instead of wagering on him.
The verdict: 2-1-5
There are several ways to go in this race, and if I’m playing the mutli-race wagers on this stakes laden card, I’m looking to take a stand in a different race where I’d hopefully have a stronger opinion. That being said, there are plenty of ways to go in this race, and the board should be wide open. I landed on Chip Honcho (#2) on top, who is the only runner in this race without a two turn victory. That’s usually an angle that would be a play against for me in a race like this, but I don’t think he’ll have trouble getting the 1 1/16 mile trip here. While both Crown the Buckeye (#5) and Mister Punch (#8) have some tactical speed, I’m not sure they’re going to be gunning for the front in this race. Chip Honcho, who gets an aggressive rider in Paco Lopez, should be the pacesetter in this spot. I don’t think he’ll have to work hard to make the lead, and I like the progression of races going into his first try at two turns. I think he’s sitting on a bigger race and I think if he’s sitting there at odds near his morning line, that would offer decent value.
Mesquite (#1) didn’t have the best start last out when he was relegated to last in the early stages of his maiden allowance win at Churchill. However, he made a sustained, wide bid, and was able to overcome a bit of greenness in the stretch to score. Once he switched leads, he finished well, and Jose Ortiz keeping the mount for Cherie DeVaux is a big plus. Ortiz was awesome here in 2024-2025, and since coming here from Kentucky, he’s won with 8 of 25 starts so far. I think this one is another colt eligible to improve, and I’m thinking that with a better start, he won’t leave himself with as much work to do today.
The horse I’m most interested in seeing is the Ohio bred, Crown the Buckeye (#5). This race and the Springboard Mile later tonight at Remington are going to be tests to see how the Yaupon colts fare in stakes company in two turn races. We’ve seen how flashy they can be in sprints, and this colt proved his mettle with Ohio breds at two turns in stakes company at Mahoning Valley. This will be a class test for sure, we’ll get a feel for how far some of these horses by this hit freshman sire want to go in higher stakes competition.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
