After a bitter cold stretch and some lingering snow forced this race to be pushed back six days, there’s seven runners looking to take the next step toward getting closer to their Derby Dreams. This race has deep history in New York, with runners like Dr. Fager, Jaipur, Native Dancer, Count Fleet, Man O’War, and Sir Barton all scoring wins in this race. Since the turn of the century, Bernardini and Early Voting parlayed wins here into wins in the Preakness Stakes.
Chad Brown has a pair of maiden winners looking to show that they could belong on a bigger stage. They’ll be up against five other runners that will need to move forward to earn a win in this early season nine furlong test.
Aqueduct, Race 10: The $200K Withers Stakes (Post Time: 4:20 PM EST)
42 Total Derby points (20-10-6-4-2)
1 Grittiness (9-2 ML): Todd Pletcher campaigns this well bred son of Curlin for Todd Pletcher. He is still a maiden and for a horse that has yet to win, he’s never really been close to winning in any of his four starts. He was 5th in the Remsen in his last start where he was near the back half of the field for the better part of that race. While there’s no doubt that he’s faced strong horses in his four races, there’s nothing about those efforts that would get me excited to back him in this race. He’ll take some money because of the human connections, but I’d prefer to see him try to beat fellow maidens before taking this kind of shot at this point.
2 – Schoolyardsuperman (2-1 ML): This son of Practical Joke also ran on Remsen Day, but he faced maidens in a one turn mile race where he was a handy front-running winner. He definitely has rebounded after a disastrous debut where he clipped heels and fell as the favorite back in September. He came back a month later and was no worse for wear when finishing second to Epic Summer as the 4-5 favorite. Manny Franco put him on the lead last out and he never looked back. I’m always a little hesitant to bet horses sired by Practical Joke at longer distances, however, that didn’t stop his son, Captain Cook, last year when he was an easy winner of this race. I also like the Tiznow influence from the dam side, which should help his cause when trying to get that extra furlong. The dam’s first foal is a talented one turn horse sired by Kantharos. While I don’t know how fast he’ll be finishing in this race, I suspect he’s still fast enough to be in front of most of these runners.
3 – Ottinho (9-5 ML): The other Chad Brown runner gets the nod by David Aragona as the slight morning line favorite, most likely as a result of his maiden score at this distance on New Year’s Eve. That was another gate to wire effort, however, the pace was on the slower side. He did battle early with a longshot and was able to have something left in the tank to hold off the post time favorite, Hadrian’s Wall, who is also a Brown trainee. The dam produced Gun Runner, who was the 2017 Horse of the Year and has turned into one of the premier stallions in the country. He was a horse that improved throughout his three year old campaign and he really put it altogether as a four year old. His full sister, Pretty Ana, is also campaigned by Brown, and she was a winner of the Grade 3 Comely on this course at this distance is her last start. While Brown’s other runner is a nice horse, the pedigree should carry this colt to victory at this distance.
4 – Star Sweeper (20-1 ML): While this son of Rock Your World was entered in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Laurel on Wednesday, his connections opted to roll the dice and start him in this nine furlong contest. He is a two time winner, clearing the N1X condition in a sprint at Parx on Christmas Eve in his last start. While he wasn’t going to be favored in that ace in Maryland, I think he was a much better fit with that field. I’m not sure I love his prospects at nine furlongs at this level at this point in his career.
5 – Mailata (6-1 ML): After two dull efforts at Parx to start his career, this son of Maximus Mischief has put it together lately, winning his last three starts as a two year old. His connections flirted with running him here in the Jerome last month, but they opted to keep him at Parx for the Future Stars Stakes instead. He handily dispatched two overmatched rivals in that race, which turned out to be nothing more than a public workout. He hasn’t had to finish particularly strong in his last few starts, as he was able to be in hand late. His sire won the Remsen on this course at this distance. This is the second horse that this mare foaled since Cash Is King LLC and LC Racing Stable purchased her. Both horses have won stakes at Parx, but his sister wasn’t as sharp when racing outside of PA. This still feels like the right time to take a shot with this colt, but I think Schoolyardsuperman is more likely to outlast him up front.
6 – Talk to Me Jimmy (12-1 ML): Rudy Rodriguez has this son of Modernist set to make his third career start and his first against winners. He has a pair of efforts in state bred maiden special weight races. He was third on debut in a race taken off the turf and he was a gate to wire winner in his last start at the same one turn mile distance. He’ll stretch out to nine furlongs today while also facing open company for this first time. He looks like a nice horse, but he seems to be cut below many of the others in this race.
7 – Fourth and One (6-1 ML): This New York bred debuted in the Funny Cide Stakes and finished second. He then had to deal with Bravaro, who had his number twice in New York before shipping south for the winner. That colt ran on Saturday in the Holy Bull and finished second behind Nearly, which was an effort that should be flattering for this gelded son of Maxfield. He ended his two year old season with a strong maiden score in a state bred maiden allowance race going a one turn mile. Breaking from the outside post in this race, he’s likely going to have to prove that he can be comfortable stalking the pace. I don’t see him being quick enough to beat some of the horses drawn inside of him to the front. Despite never facing open company, he was up against a horse that certainly proved he can compete at this level. He’s working well in the morning on the Belmont training track. The dam’s other runners haven’t been all that impressive, so there is a question of how high his ceiling could be. However, in this spot, I think he’s more interesting than some of the other alternatives.
The verdict: 3-7-2
I think Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this race and the pedigree edge clearly goes to Ottinho (#3). He’s a half to Gun Runner and this colt should only continue to improve throughout the season. While he’s not a serious candidate to win the Derby yet, this feels like a logical place to start. I think he’ll be finishing the best in this race.
While I have questions about how strong Brown’s other runner, Schoolyardsuperman (#2)will be finishing, he’s still a player in this race. He figures to be a part of the early pace with his stablemate hounding him. I suspect Ottinho is going to be able to get by and if he does, we’ll see how hard he’s trying. I’m looking for a longer price to maybe spice up the exacta a bit. I do think the New York bred, Fourth and One (#7) could be a candidate to improve in this race if he’s comfortable rating off the pace. If he goes four wide into the first turn, his race could be over by the time they hit the ⅜ pole. However, if Jamie Rodriguez can get him to relax off the pace, he might be one that could be finishing better than some of the others.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
