The Southwest card had to be pushed back six days, but this fantastic 12 race program will be run in its entirety this afternoon. Unfortunately, we did lose a headliner in the process, as Bob Baffert announced that the morning line favorite, Litmus Test, will defect from this race today. His other colt, Buetane, will run as 13 runners will be left to sort things out on the way to the Derby. First post for this super-sized card will be set for 11:30 (CST).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 4,7 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 6 | 6,2,1 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 10,1 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 4 | 12 | 12 | 10 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2,4 | 11,5 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 3 | 3,9,1 | 4 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 8 | 8 | 8,7 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 9 | 5 | 5 | 12 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 10 | 2 | 2,5,8 | DBL, $3 PK3 | ||
| 11 | 9 | 9 | 11,7 | $5 DBL | |
| 12 | 2 | 2,6 |
Race 1:
Southwest Day starts with a $75K maiden claiming race for three year olds going one mile. I think Prime Suspect (#2) is the one to beat in this race. His last few sprint races have been solid, but I’m intrigued that his connections opted for this spot at one mile as opposed to a $50K maiden claiming sprint here yesterday. His lone two turn try came at Turfway on the Tapeta where he was a bit flat-footed breaking from the gate and then was forced steady before they made the bend into the first turn. The pace setter set ambitious fractions while he lingered near the back of the pack. He was sharper when racing here last out and Cristian Torres will be back in the saddle. There isn’t a ton of early pace signed on for this contest, so he should be in a better spot than many of his major rivals here. The dam did her best work at one turn, but this colt is bred to have success at two turns on the dirt. I’ll give him another look here. Matt Shirer has a pair of runners set to debut in this race, and the one that interests me more is Spring St. Dreamer (#4). The dam has foaled a debut winner at this distance. He’s sired by the 2017 Derby winner, Always Dreaming. While he has not had the huge commercial breeding success, his runners have won 10% of the time when debuting at two turns. The works are solid and he’s another one that should be able to sit a nice trip if he can break well. Out Flat (#7) is another longer priced option in this field. He’s making his third career start after a pair of off the board finishes to start his career. He did improve last out when trying two turns here for the first time in maiden special weight company. The winner of that race, Circle Tap, ran well enough to be considered for the Southwest Stakes later on this afternoon. This feels like a horse that can continue to improve while he gets some class relief.
Race 2:
An overflow field of 14 signed up for this $10K beaten claiming contest. This race is restricted to horses that have either never won three times or have not won a race since July 1st, 2025. Consistency is not a hallmark at this level, so the shorter odds on both Magic Grant (#3) and Face Value (#12) after strong efforts at this level last month aren’t particularly enticing. Sivako (#2) was the second choice in the wagering in that same race and he bobbled a bit and then was forced to take up early on in that race. He found himself at the back of the pack in a race where Face Value was on the muscle early. While he doesn’t have a ton of early speed, he has enough speed to secure a better position than the one he was stuck in last time out. I think he can fire a better race first off the Wayne Potts claim. He’s more enticing at longer odds and he’ll be an A line play for me, but my top pick will be One Cool Dude (#6) for Jordan Blair. His last race looked better visually than it does on paper. He was stretching out to two turns on the dirt for the first time in a long time. He was a gate to wire maiden winner at nine furlongs on the dirt at Keeneland back in 2022. Prior to his last start, he was doing most of his work in dirt sprints. He stretched back out to this distance when facing time restricted $12,500 claimers in his last start at the end of December. He stumbled significantly, and broke at the back of that field, which is not really the race he wants to run. He can with a strong middle move while following the cover of the post time favorite, who ended up winning the race. He came with a bold move while being carried out into the middle of the course, but he flattened out late to finish third. I assumed after his last race, Face Value will be sent for speed early on. However, I think Manny Esquivel can get the lead with this Mineshaft gelding if he wants to. I think he should be more fit for this race while routing for the second time in a row. Another runner to consider is Brittany’s Dream (#1) in this spot. He has some solid efforts in his past when facing Louisiana breds that would make him competitive with this group. He’s making his third start off the layoff today and could be sitting on a better effort after faltering in a state bred turf race at the Fair Grounds last month. His comeback race here in December wasn’t an awful effort, but there was a lot of rust that needed to be shaken off that day. He tossed his head at the start and was rank for the first 50 yards or so before settling down and coming up on the leaders’ heels. He came with a wide bid and was bumped at the top of the stretch. He wasn’t gaining on the leaders, but with a clean run, he could have finished closer. I’ll draw a line through his last where he seemingly had no shot.
Race 3:
Arkansas breds will sprint six furlongs in this optional $50K claiming/N2X allowance race. With the month-long gap in between racing days at Oaklawn, we are seeing home horses running out of condition in this race. Both Triple Up (#2) and Zippy Mark (#10) are bypassing the N1X condition by competing here. The morning line favorite is Gettinby (#4) who is coming off a big effort here in N3L starter allowance company last month. He made the lead early that day and never looked back, drawing off to win by almost 10 lengths. The course was playing fairly that afternoon as horses were winning from the lead and from off the pace and along the rail and with wider trips. He only came close to running that kind of race one other time in his 10 race career and that was over a sloppy course. If you believe that he can back that effort up while facing some strong state bred runners, that he’s the runner for you. I think with the larger field, he’s going to be under more pressure to get the front and I fear that he’s a bounce candidate in this race. Despite being eligible for an easier spot, I like Zippy Mark in here. I think his outside draw will let him run the kind of race that will win this race. He ran a credible second when finishing second Nicholai (#3) in N1X company here last time out. That was his first local start of the year and his first race in three months. He ran solid races in open starter allowance company at Saratoga this summer, so I don’t think the competition hike for this race will be too steep for him. He ran a strong race on this course to be 4th in the Arkansas Breeders’ Championship. I think he’s a better horse at one turn though so I’ll be looking for him to move forward in this race. Chrome’s Echo (#1) missed a full year of racing before coming back in a state bred stakes quality allowance race here in December. This field is solid, but it’s not as deep as the field that he faced in his return. He didn’t have the best break that day and he likely needed that race. His longshot win here in December of 2024 when clearing the N1X condition was solid. I see him as a horse that has some upside in this spot. I think Triple Up is an interesting horse to consider as a backup here as well. He ran a monster race at first asking and then was gelded after that start. I can’t imagine that was a part of the plan, especially since he was bred by his owner. However, he still showed a lot of natural ability after blowing the start last out.
Race 4:
Open $30K-$25K claimers will go six furlongs in a race that starts one of four Pick-04 opportunities on this program. Eglise (#12) drops in class after a pair of dull efforts with N2X allowance types here and at Churchill. He caught a muddy track in Kentucky two back and he didn’t get to run his race last time out. He was bumped hard out of the gate and ended up going into chase mode, which didn’t serve him all that well. The pacesetter broke cleanly and was able to establish a clear lead. His form has been up and down, but he’s been able to right the ship when facing lesser opposition. He gets Flavien Prat in the irons and his outside draw should help him secure the early lead. I think he’s going to be tough to run down in this spot. The backup for me in this race is Prayforpeace (#10). He ran a big race two back at Remington, posting a career best 91 Beyer Speed Figure when beating time restricted $20K claimers. He waited a few months and then shipped here to run at this level. Like the top pick, he was jostled around a bit at the break, which certainly didn’t help his cause. He was in behind runners and forced to tip out widest of all coming off the turn. He finished with some interest, but could do no better than 5th. He was claimed by Cipriano Contreras, who had great numbers with runners first off the claim here last season.
Race 5:
This is a tough maiden special weight contest with many potential winners for three year olds sprinting six furlongs. The morning line favorite is Silver Syndicate (#2) for Ron Moquett. The word is likely out that this horse has ability, but this is also a barn that doesn’t typically have their horses fully cranked for their first career starts. Moquett has won 7% of his races with first time starters that are three or older over the last five years. The works are solid and the dam of this Liam’s Map colt produced a very nice horse that was 3-4 in his career, losing only in his debut where he was clearly much the best. Liam’s Map gets 14% winners from his debut runners in dirt sprint races. I don’t know if he’ll be the favorite in this race when all is said and done, but if his odds drop, clearly that bodes for his win prospects, even if the value is less than ideal. The fact that Moquett does not have a great track record with firsters, could cause his odds to go the other way. However, if his odds go too high and he goes cold on the board, I’m not sure I’d be as enthusiastic about his chances. He’s the top pick for me here, but I think this is a race where coverage is going to be important. I’m very interested in using Top Level (#4). He’s starting at 12-1 on the morning line, but it feels impossible for him to be that high of a number at post time. Casse has been on an absolute heater with his runners at Oaklawn, and this horse was working very quickly on both the dirt and the Tapeta at Gulfstream prior to making his debut in a two turn grass race at the end of December. The dam has foaled three other runners to make it to the track and all three were winners, with most of the success from her offspring coming in one turn dirt races. Casse is 4-37 (11%) with second time starts going from turf to traditional dirt. Both Mactak (#5) and Spike the Punch (#11) debuted in a very fast maiden race where D’Code ran that field off their feet. He goes later on this afternoon in the Southwest Stakes, but a strong effort from either of these runners could be flattering. I prefer Spike the Punch, who went forward after breaking well. He was caught down inside and was never going to be able to keep pace with the winner. He did battle on despite getting chewed up a bit in the first quarter. The outside draw should set him up for a better effort in his second try. Mactak has the golden pedigree for this race, but that didn’t make a big difference in the debut when he was roughed up somewhat at the break. He was never going to get close to D’Code, but I think the effort would have been better had he not also encountered some traffic on the turn.
Race 6, The $300K Martha Washington Stakes:
The Arkansas road to the Kentucky Oaks begins in earnest with this 1 1/16 stakes race for three year old fillies. It’s going to be hard for me to play against Counting Stars (#5), who has been an absolute force in her two starts in stakes company at this meet. She was an impressive winner on debut, but she struggled in the Myrtlewood Stakes at Keeneland when making her second start. She dropped in class to a restricted stakes race going six furlongs here and she was a much the best winner that afternoon. She wheeled back 13 days later and was extremely impressive when dominating the Years End Stakes, despite being five wide on the first turn .She covered a lot of ground that day and still was able to beat a solid field by six lengths. She is facing tougher, but if she can work out a better trip, she should continue to improve. The logical alternative is Hit Parade (#6), who was a gutsy winner of the Untapable Stakes at the Fair Grounds when she was last seen on the track. Brad Cox didn’t have a starter in the Silverbulletday Stakes in New Orleans a few weeks ago, so perhaps he prefers the timing of this race. I think Counting Stars has a higher ceiling, but I do respect the tenacity that she showed in her last two victories. If they do get in a dogfight throughout the stretch, she’s going to be a tough customer to get by.
Race 7:
The Classix Pick-6 wager will start off with another maiden special weight test for three year olds, this time going 1 1/16 miles. The even money favorite on the morning line is Silver Prince (#4). He was a distant second to D’Code when debuting at six furlongs in his last start. The fact that they entered him in this two turn race after that strong figure in his debut tells me that the barn likes the prospects of their first time starter in the 5th race. This colt should improve at two turns, but the dam’s best runners were turf horses. Moquett has won with only 2 of his 39 (5%) second time starts that went from sprints to routes over the last five years. The connections paid $450K for this horse last year and you don’t see too many Cairo Prince runners fetching that kind of money. He’s a B line play though for me in this race because I do think there’s value in trying to beat him since he never really got close to the winner last out. I tend to be very cautious with horses that put up big numbers when losing by a large margin and if this one does go off at even money, I think there will be some juicy prices elsewhere on the board. Bayou Flyer (#3) is an interesting longshot for Tom Amoss in this race. He drew into a race here at this level on opening weekend. He broke a bit awkwardly and that was compounded when he was bumped into a few steps out of the gate. He was wide and behind a runaway longshot. He made a solid middle move and was forced wide once again on the far turn, finishing well back. He’s making his second career start where he’s getting some significant post relief. Like many in this field, he’s getting Lasix for the first time, and that’s been a big boost for Amoss’ runners. His horses also tend to perform much better in their second starts. Fleek (#9) is another longshot that ran better than his last race looks .He also drew an outside post in a different race. He also did not have a smooth dispatch, forcing him to be wide and off the pace. He came with a decent bid, but he ran out of steam in the final furlong. He’s making his third start off a layoff and his second try at two turns. He made his first two career starts in stakes races at Prairie Meadows and Zia Park, so his connections have thought well of him from the start. I’ll also include Rocky Raccoon (#1) on the A line in this spot. He ran well to be third at this level while pressing the pace while going three wide throughout the race last time .He may have moved early to try to get over and save a little ground going into the stretch. He’s on the rail today, which likely forces him to go to the front end. I do expect him to have more fight in this race while presumably being able to save ground all of the way.
Race 8, The $135K General McArthur Overnight Stakes:
Four year olds and up will go 1 ⅛ miles in this restricted overnight race for horses that have never won an open stakes race. For the horses that were cross-entered, American Law (#1) ran yesterday in the Fifth Season Stakes, so he will presumably scratch from this race. Runaway Again (#10) also was entered in that race (and he was my top pick), but his connections opted to skip that race in favor of this one. I liked how he fit in that race with the prospective pace scenario. However, there is not much pace signed on for this nine furlong test. He’s drawn outside, and while he likes to be forward, he’s going to have to work out a decent trip from a high draw here. I landed on Energize (#8) on top in this race. He was sharp at Churchill two starts ago when clearing the N1X condition at this distance. He ran back at this nine furlong trip when trying synthetic for the first time in the Last Hurrah Stakes at Turfway. He hit the front, but faded late to finish third. He’s improved significantly in his dirt races for Michael Stidham and he could be a candidate to steal this race on the front end. Mackman (#7) will also be on my A line tickets in this race. He gets class relief after finishing third beaten five lengths to Rattle N Roll and Willy D’s. Both of those are serious racehorses and neither would be eligible for a spot like this. He has decent races on this course and the nine furlong distance is within his scope. I’m looking for him to be in front half of the field, which is likely an advantageous place to be if the tempo isn’t too hot. Sir Greylind (#5) just missed in this race last year and he might be even better coming into this race. He’s coming off respectable tries in two stakes race at Fair Grounds where they went fast in the early stages. There’s less pace signed up for this one, so that complicates things a little bit for him. He does like the course and Hernandez is in to ride today for McPeek.
Race 9:
While there are several spots on this card where the favorites seem vulnerable, I don’t think that’s the case in this N1X allowance sprint for older runners. I liked Vital Mind (#5) a lot last month at this level, and he ran the race I thought he was going to run. However, he faced Stiglets that afternoon who was simply awesome. They stopped the clock in 1:08:4 that day, which was blazing on that track. This $600K son of Into Mischief was very good in his first two starts, breaking his maiden at Churchill two starts ago. He’s the first foal to race from a multiple Grade 1 winning mare. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hooked with Stiglets again in a stakes race later on at this meet. He feels like he’s too good for this group. The backup for me in this race is the New York invader, Finestkind (#12) for Mark Casse. He made his first three starts in turf sprints before stretching out to a one turn mile on the dirt at this level at the Big A in his last start. He ran into Life and Times, who was another runner that ran a monster effort to win that day. That one came back to be third in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper and the runner up came back three weeks later to clear this condition. I like the cutback and think this is a sneaky spot for this colt. I just think he’s running into another stakes caliber horse though.
Race 10, The $135K Bugler Overnight Stakes:
Fillies and mares who have never won an open stakes race will sprint six furlongs in this overnight stakes contest. This feels like a race where we know pretty much what to expect from several of the runners. Both the shorter prices on the morning line, Foie Gras (#5) and the slight favorite Blue Fire (#8) both appear to be well-spotted and a little bit better than the majority of the runners in this field. Both are A line plays for me, but I think there could be an opportunity to beat them with a price in this race. Harbor Springs (#2) makes some sense as a live longshot here. The only other time Brian Hernandez was on her back, she ran her best career race, beating a nice N2X allowance field at the Fair Grounds. She was last seen finishing 4th in an off the turf stakes race there when making her first start since August. Her summer form wasn’t great, and I think that last race could set her up for a better effort if she takes to the local surface here. Foie Gras was the winner of the Oaklawn Anywhere Overnight Stakes here at the end of December. She now has two wins in a row and she has been sharper in the mornings going into this race than she was last time out. Flavien Prat replacing Ricardo Santana Jr. (who is riding in New York today) feels like an upgrade. Blue Fire has won half of her career races and she’s finished first or second 80% of the time. Most of her career has been spent facing fellow Louisiana breds, but she proved in the Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes last spring that she can hold her own with open company while racing without Lasix. Her consistency in a race like this figures to be quite valuable.
Race 11, The Grade 3 Southwest Stakes:
I have a more detailed, horse by horse analysis of this race posted on the ITM Blog, and I’ve linked that article below. However, the quick and dirty analysis revolves around the two Mark Casse runners, Strategic Risk (#9) and Silent Tactic (#11). John Oxley owns both colts and both are trained by Mark Casse. Strategic Risk seems like the better horse at the moment despite the fact that he had everything his own way in the Smarty Jones. He’s been a beast since going to two turns and I think he’s likely to sit another favorable trip behind some questionable speed. Silent Tactic was trying the dirt for the first time that day and he didn’t have the easiest journey, racing at the back of the field into a slow pace. He still made headway in between runners to get up for second and I think he might offer more upside at a juicier price here. Liberty National (#7) just missed in the Gun Runner when dipping to the inside for a late rally. He closed well into a slow pace in that race and when you couple that with how well he’s been looking in the mornings, he feels like a horse that is trending upward.
Race 12:
The nightcap on this super-sized program is a $12,500 starter allowance contest for horses that have started at least one time when racing with a $12,500 claiming tag or less since the start of 2024. Bright Spark (#2) is on a nice run in his last six starts, winning five of those races, three of which came on this oval. He was in for a lower tag in his last two starts and was claimed both times, while finding the Winner’s Circle at very short odds. He should be a bit of a longer price today, but he’s a talented horse that often finds ways to win races. I’ll wager that My Noble Knight (#6) can rebound in this spot today. He wound up being wide throughout despite breaking from post 4. Luis Saez had him four wide in the first turn and three wide on the second turn. Meanwhile, Money Run (#12) threw down the gauntlet from his outside draw and was able to keep finding while saving ground on both turns. While I imagine the tactics for that one will be similar in this race, I want to see him back that effort up. He hasn’t shown an ability to pair those big efforts just yet, so I think he’s a vulnerable favorite. Meanwhile, My Noble Knight is a generally consistent animal that should be able to rebound after that dull effort. He was the second choice in that race, going off at 9-5 in the wagering. I don’t trust the shorter priced runners on the outside, so I’d be good riding with this duo.
2025-26 Meet Statistics
Top Pick Winners: 28/142 (19.7%, $199.40 $1.40 ROI)
