It’s hard to believe, but our Kentucky Derby Prep Race Series at In The Money Media begins with this Grade 3 contest which will give horses the first opportunity to earn points toward getting in the starting gate for the 152nd Kentucky Derby next year. While it’s a long way away, this three race series at Churchill for two year olds, consisting of this race, the Street Sense next month, and the Kentucky Jockey Club at the end of November, have had their fair share of successful runners.
We’ve yet to see a Derby Winner that won this race as a two year old, however, several useful runners have earned a victory in this race. Court Vision had an excellent career, which ended with a Breeders’ Cup win in 2011. Despite going on to be 13th in the Derby, he is the most accomplished runner to have won this race. Harlan’s Holiday went on to be a three-time Grade 1 winner after winning this race as a two year old. Not This Time had his career cut short by injury after finishing a very game second to Classic Empire in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, his legacy as a stud continues to grow each year.
This year, ten horses have been entered in this race, led by Comport, who was second in the Bashford Manor here in June and most recently was a winner in the Juvenile Stakes at Ellis. Post time for this race is scheduled for 4:26 PM (EDT).
Churchill Downs, Saturday, Race 8: The Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Nothing Personal (8-1 ML): When watching the replays of all the runners in this race, no one was more impressive from a visual standpoint than this son of Violence. He stalked a solid pace when going seven furlongs at Colonial Downs last month. He ranged up three wide on the turn and blew by the battling front-runners to score by almost nine lengths on the wire. While the raw times are pretty eye-catching, the main track at Colonial tends to play very fast. He did earn a 76 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort and he was flattered when the runner-up in that race came back to break his maiden at the end of August. His trainer Greg Compton has not had much graded stakes experience, however, he has a few nice three year old fillies that he developed this year. Kinzie Queen was his first graded stakes placed horse this year, earning third place finishes in the Black Eyed Susan and the Delaware Oaks. He’s still looking for that first breakthrough win though. This Violence colt cost $270K this May, so it’s clear he is looking the part. His runners get 13% winners in their first route race, and this race being a one turn mile, certainly should suit him. The dam was a multiple stakes winner when sprinting on the synthetic, but she was sired by Wando, who was the 2023 Canadian Triple Crown winner. While I have been cautious when playing back horses coming off big efforts at Colonial on the dirt, I do think this colt has a big chance in this race.
2 – Sometime (15-1 ML): This son of Take Charge Indy is another Colonial Downs invader, coming in off a third place finish in a state bred stakes race on the turf. He was an impressive maiden winner at the end of July, dead-heating with Magic Wallet. That one came back to win the Dover Stakes at Delaware Park and the distant third place finisher of that race came back to break his maiden in a one mile race on the turf. Calumet Farm owns this horse that is trained by Mark Simms Jr. While Compton had little graded stakes experience, this will be the first graded stakes starter for Simms. The dam was a useful California bred runner that banked over $230K in earnings despite winning only three times in her career. Her first two foals to race haven’t done a whole lot on the track. The speed figures for this one are a little light, but there is hope that he’ll improve in his third career start. I see him as a part of the early pace picture, but I prefer others to be hanging around late.
3 – No More Cents (10-1 ML) – Ken McPeek has won this race twice in his career and he has a pair of runners that he hopes to give him a third Iroquois score. This Ohio bred debuted in a state bred stakes race at Belterra where he got the better of Crown the Buckeye, who was the other first time starter in that contest back in the middle of July. Those two runners squared off again in the Best of Ohio Cleveland Kindergarten Stakes at Thistledown last month and he was no match for his rival that day, losing by a disappointing 17 lengths. His trip in the Hoover was much more comfortable as he was a clear third, while two runners battled on the front end. He was covered up for the better part in the Thistledown race. Perhaps he didn’t like being inside of runners or perhaps he didn’t care for the course. However, he now faces nine rivals, many of which are coming out of tougher races. It’s interesting to see Irad Ortiz taking the mount on this one, but honestly, I think the only thing that is going to do is to limit the value on this one. I’d probably need closer to 30-1 to think about him in this race, and with Irad in the irons, I’m not sure that he’s going to go off at odds close to that.
4 – So Special (10-1 ML) – The other McPeek runner is a little more interesting to me. This son of Vekoma has a pair of two turn efforts on the turf to start his career, scoring at Ellis when going 1 1/16 miles in his last start. While both of the Beyer Figures came back slow, the Equibase figures for those turf races were more respectable. Furthermore, two year old turf Beyer figures aren’t really the most reliable indicator, especially in two turn races. Vekoma is one of the best sires in the game right now and he gets 18% winners with dirt route runners. He also has runners that have won 17% of the time when going from turf to dirt. McPeek tabs his regular rider, Brian Hernandez for his third career start. He’s going from two turns to one turn and switching surfaces, but I think he’s going to have a stamina edge over many of these and that feels important in a race like this.
5 – Spice Runner (7-2 ML) – Steve Asmussen has three wins in this race, and he’ll try to get his 4th score with this son of Gun Runner who finished second to Comport in the Juvenile Stakes at Ellis last month. That was a much better effort, finishing only two lengths behind his rival, after finishing about 10 lengths behind him in the Bashford Manor. He’s a full brother to the Grade 1 winning sprinter, Gunite. That one never won a race longer than seven furlongs, but he was a four time winner on this course, three of which came in stakes company. The dam never won a race longer than 5 ½ furlongs, so despite the stamina influence from Gun Runner, I do wonder if this one will have some distance limitations, as his full brother did. With his pedigree and his human connections, I do expect this colt to get some action at the windows, so he might be one to try to beat in this race.
6 – Shake and Rattle (20-1 ML) – This longshot has five career starts, recording his lone win in a restricted maiden special weight race on this course in June. He finished 10 lengths behind Comport two starts back in the Juvenile Stakes at Ellis and more recently, he was a dull 5th on the turf in an allowance race at Kentucky Downs. He’ll be the first runner from Rock Your World to try a race on the dirt at one mile. The sire won the Santa Anita Derby in his first ever dirt start, but he never won again before retiring. The dam foaled a horse that won the Frederico Tesio Stakes a few years ago, so there’s reason to believe this horse could get better while going a little farther, however, winning this race feels like a bit of a stretch.
7 – Comport (6-5 ML)- The morning line favorite going into this race is the only runner in the field with a win in open stakes company. He earned that win at Ellis Park last month when scoring in the Juvenile Stakes there as a heavy favorite. That was facing a small field and he had everything his own way. He’s done little wrong in his three starts, winning twice and finishing second to Romeo in a fast running of the Bashford Manor. He likes to be forward, and he figures to have company on the front end. His dam did nothing on the track and her only other foal to make it to the track has only run in sprints. While I like the gradual progression of adding distance, there might be a few concerns as he stretches out today. Offspring of Collected have won 14% of their overall races in the last five years, but when looking at the horses he’s sired trying a dirt route for the first time, that number drops to 8%. He’s a player in this race and he’ll be on most of my multi-race tickets, but I do think there is value in trying to play against him.
8 – Vost (12-1 ML) – This son of Instagrand debuted against a large field at Ellis when going seven furlongs last month. He was away slowly, but Florent Geroux remained patient as he came from off the pace to score. I do like horses that can win at seven furlongs at first asking and I also like two year olds that are capable of winning from off the pace. He checks both of those boxes, but the race he came out of wasn’t particularly fast. We’ve seen a lot of deep maiden special weight races at Ellis Park for two year olds over the last few summers, but his heat probably isn’t one of them. From a pedigree standpoint, Instagrand gets 20% winners with his horses that route for the first time on the dirt. The dam was a stakes winner and was graded stakes placed twice at this one turn mile distance. He’s the first foal of hers to run in the afternoon. He certainly is eligible to move forward in his second start and he wouldn’t be a shock, but there are others that I prefer.
9 – Nine Ball (12-1 ML) – He is another runner that came from off the pace to score on debut at Ellis three weeks ago. That win came in a 5 ½ furlong race on the dirt and now he’s trying to stretch out to a mile. He’s the first runner from Code of Honor to try a dirt route, but the sire was second in the Grade 1 Champagne after a debut score at six furlongs. The dam has produced a stakes winner at two turns on the dirt, but most of her other runners were winners at Charles Town. He was a decent turf sprinter, so she’s not offering much in the way of stamina from her side of the family. He’s another one that is not impossible, but I’ll be looking in other directions.
10 – Maximus Prime (12-1 ML) – The lone maiden in the field is coming off a 4th place finish in maiden special weight company when going one mile at Ellis. While being a maiden is not a disqualifier for me, especially seeing as how Sovereignty won the Street Sense here last October, which was his maiden breaking effort. However, he has three total starts and he wasn’t really competitive at this distance when facing horses that have never won. He ran a respectable race to rally to finish second in the Kentucky Juvenile on Derby Week when going five furlongs. Larry Demeritte was the trainer of record that day. He sadly passed away a few weeks after that race and Anthony Mitchell has taken over the training of this Maximus Mischief colt. He’s facing a much tougher group here, and despite attracting Luis Saez to ride, I’m not sold that he has the ability to win this race.
The verdict: 4-1-7
While the favorite, Comport (#7), looks like a solid horse, I do wonder if he’s going to have distance limitations. I also tend to like a horse that can come from off the pace when younger horses are going this one turn mile distance. I’ll be using him on my multi-race plays, but I think there could be value in looking elsewhere.
Ken McPeek’s two year olds in Kentucky always seem to take off in the fall, and I’m hoping for the same with So Special (#4) in this race. He ran well in two turf races that came back on the slower side. I like that he’s going from two turn races on the turf to a one turn race on the dirt here. I like playing this angle in seven furlong races, and I think it’s applicable in situations like this. I worry that many of these will be struggling to finish in the final furlong of this race. While this will be the first try on dirt in the afternoon, I think the pedigree is there to succeed on this surface. If he takes to the dirt, I think he’s capable of taking a big step forward in his third start.
I’ll also use Nothing Personal (#1), making his second career start for Greg Compton. He looked the part when breaking his maiden with ease at Colonial Downs when going seven furlongs. I’m a firm believer that a horse that can win at that distance at first asking has some definite quality. While this will be a big test, I do see him as horse that has plenty of upside. His trainer doesn’t really have national name recognition yet, so that may keep his price from dipping too far below his 8-1 morning line. I thought he’d be closer to 4-1 and I think he offers solid value at 5-1 and up.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
