This will be the second of three Grade 1 races for two year olds that are designed to be a prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but also offer important points toward entry into next year’s Kentucky Derby. In the Mid-80’s this race had a good run, giving us two of the first three Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners, Chief’s Crown in 1984 and Capote in 1986. Sandwiched in between those years, we had Snow Chief win in 1985, who would later go on to win the Preakness Stakes the following year. While some nice horses came out of this race over the next 20-30 years, the next Triple Crown race winner that came with a trophy from this race was the 2010 Preakness winner, Lookin’ at Lucky. American Pharoah, who became the race’s namesake, started to change the fate of the race in 2014. While he opted to bypass the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that year after winning this race (known as the Frontrunner then), he went on to win the Triple Crown and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Since then, three runners, Nyquist, Corniche, and Citizen Bull went on to win both this race and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, with Nyquist also scoring in the 2016 Derby.
There are six runners entered today, and as per usual lately for these races on the West Coast, four of them are trained by Bob Baffert. After a down year in the Triple Crown Races by his standard, Baffert has reloaded with his eyes on 2026. While he haven’t seen all of his runners yet, the horse that might be the best of these right now, Brant, is bypassing this race and training up to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Jeff Mullins and Doug O’Neill have nice runners here too, so despite being so heavily tilted to one barn, this isn’t a terrible betting race. Post time for this Grade 1 contest is scheduled for 5:03 (EDT).
Santa Anita, Saturday, Race 3: The Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Desert Gate (3-2 ML): After two impressive races to start his career, things weren’t as perfect last time out for this son of Omaha Beach. He was facing his stablemate, Brant, who hammered down to 1-9 after a brilliant debut effort. When the gate opened, he stumbled mildly coming out, then he had to take up mildly before they left the seven furlong chute. He moved toward the inside and rated kindly, and then took aim at his stablemate at the top of the stretch. He fought hard, but came up a length short. Omaha Beach gets 15% winners with his runners routing for the first time on the dirt. The dam was a stakes winner on dirt and synthetic and graded stakes placed on dirt. Her first foal to race did nothing, but this one clearly has more ability. He has the pole position and I assume that Hernandez is going to go to the lead with him from his rail draw. With three other Baffert runners in the field, I don’t think there is an incoming speed duel. He’s a deserving favorite in this race.
2 – Intrepido (6-1 ML): Jeff Mullins sends out this Maximus Mischief ridgling who is one of four horses in this race that has lost to Brant. His connections paid $385K for him in April of this year, so he appears to be a horse that has developed nicely. He was 4th behind Brant, Civil Liberty, and Balboa in a 5 ½ furlong maiden allowance at Del Mar at the end of July. He got away slowly, but made some headway to get into 4th. He looked like a horse that craved more distance, so Mullins stretched him out to a mile for his second start where he handled his business in gate to wire fashion. He finished ahead of Plutarch and Baffert’s Provenance, who was foaled by Monomoy Girl and won in his next start. The dam didn’t do much on the track and her first three foals to race were nothing special. However, this one appears to be built differently. He’s likely not going to be on the lead today, which puts him in a bit of a vulnerable position, especially when 80% of his rivals are running for the same barn. I like him better than Civil Liberty from the non-Baffert contingent.
3 – Plutarch (10-1 ML): It’s already been a good start to the weekend for the offspring of the 2015 Champion Three Year Old Filly. In the Stars was an impressive allowance winner on the turf on Friday at Keeneland. This Into Mischief colt is still a maiden, but he has a pair of credible efforts to start his career. He was second behind Intrepido in his debut on the dirt when going a mile at Del Mar. He ran back quickly in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf and was a game second in that race. While obviously the dirt ability is there on both sides of his pedigree, I think this one could be better on the turf, much like his full brother, so I’m a little surprised to see that he’s running here instead of the Zuma Beach tomorrow. It is a bit of a calculated risk, because as a maiden, it’s going to be hard for him to get into the body of the Juvenile Turf race since that race almost always oversubscribes. With the pedigree, there could be an interest to try to get a graded stakes placing on the dirt before they go back to the lawn. He has been working well and with two, two-turn races under his belt, he could have a stamina edge over some of his rivals.
4 – Civil Liberty (5-1 ML): Doug O’Neill brings this one back at two turns after finishing third behind Brant and Desert Gate. Once the real running began, he couldn’t keep pace with the top two. He edged clear of Balboa, but I don’t think he’s in the same class as some of the other runners here. The dam only ran once, but she was sired by Tiznow. Independence Hall is a freshman sire, but I suspect his runners are going to be better in longer one turn races. His four horses to have gone two turns early on are 0-4 thus far. I’m looking elsewhere here.
5 – Balboa (8-1 ML): The third of four Baffert runners was about 8 lengths behind Brant when making his debut. He came back in a softer maiden special weight at 6 ½ furlongs which he was an easy winner. He was not in the same class as the other Baffert runners in the Del Mar Futurity, as he chased the pace and backed out of the picture. The blinkers are coming off for this start, and Umberto Rispoli rides him for the first time today. He’s 0-5 when riding for Baffert in the last two years, which tells me that he’s often riding his lesser profile runners. I’m going to pass here.
6 – Kristofferson (9-5 ML): This $1.15 million dollar baby was as good as advertised when making his debut at the end of August. He battled hard all the way, locked in a duel with Mr. A.P., winning by ¾ of a length after working hard all the way around. He stopped the clock in 1:08:4, which is strong for Del Mar standards and the 90 Beyer Figure certainly speaks to that effort. He’s the third starter from this dam, and the first to find the Winner’s Circle. He’s owned by the SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket conglomerate, and the fact they they sent Litmus Test to Keeneland today tells me that they think highlight of this expensive colt they paid all that money for. His sire won this race and went on to the Derby and the potential is certainly there. He could be the best of this bunch, but he’s going to have to prove his mettle to me when going two turns. Unless Mike Smith can catch a flyer coming out of the gate, I don’t know if he’s going to be able to dictate the terms here. He’s likely going to be asked to rate, and I think Civil Liberty will try to keep him wide. While he might have the highest ceiling in the field, I’m going to try to beat him here.
The verdict: 3-1-2
I’ll roll the dice and make the other, other Baffert the top pick in this race. You’d be hard pressed to find a better pedigree than the one with Plutarch (#3). While he’s still one of two maidens in this race, he has two route races whereas four of his rivals have none. He ran well in stakes company on the turf and the fact that he’s entered here suggests his connections are liking what they’re seeing from him in the morning. Desert Gate (#1) finished well at seven furlongs, but he also wasn’t setting the world on fire last time out. If they’re struggling in the final furlong, I’m expecting this one to surge late.
I think Desert Gate could wind up on a relatively easy lead, much like Citizen Bull did last year in both this race and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I don’t think he was going to be able to outsprint his stablemate for the lead last out even if he broke cleanly. However, the stumble at the start forced him to try different tactics. While he came up a bit short, he handled his business and took a good run at his well-regarded stablemate.
Intrepdio (#2) got the job done at two turns on the dirt last out and he’s the only one in this field that can say that. He did have things his own way that day, so he’s going to have to show that he can adapt if he winds up stalking the pace from 4th. I’m not sure some of his rivals are going to thrive at longer distances, so the fact that he has that win is worth considering him in this spot.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
