While the last horse to win this race and win the Kentucky Derby was Swale all the way back in 1984, winners of this race have won three of the last nine runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Forte in 2022, Essential Quality in 2020, and Classic Empire in 2016 all won here before solidifying their championship status in the Breeders’s Cup. Ted Noffey looks to follow in the same footsteps as Forte when he won this race following a strong win in the Grade 1 Hopeful for Todd Pletcher. He’ll be a heavy favorite in this contest, but he’ll have some worthy adversaries today. Post time for this Grade 1 contest is scheduled for 5:16 (EDT).
Keeneland, Saturday, Race 9: The Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Blackout Time (10-1 ML): Ken McPeek sends out this son of Not This Time who was an impressive maiden winner when going one mile at Ellis in his last start. That was clearly a live race that he is coming out of as four of the 11 runners he vanquished came back to win in their next starts. Two of them won in maiden special weight contests on the turf at Kentucky Downs and two others won on the dirt at Churchill. The dam, who was a Grade 3 winner in the States at 12 furlongs on the turf, has foaled three other runners to race and only one of them was a winner. That one won both of her races on the lawn. With Not This Time as the sire, this one could definitely have a future on the turf, however, he’s done well enough on the dirt to think that he could move forward in this spot today. Despite breaking from the rail, I doubt he’s going to be sent for the lead, especially with Ewing likely blasting away from the outside stall. I think he’s the longshot with the best shot in this spot.
2 – Big Dom (4-1 ML): As an Eagles Fan, I’m eagerly awaiting to see what’s next for this McKinzie colt who was named after their famous (or infamous, depending upon which team you root for) Head of Security. He was very impressive when scoring on debut on Travers Day at Saratoga. He stalked the pace and nailed Dr. Kapur on the wire that day. Tom Amoss has another very nice colt that came back to Churchill with him, but he’s going to be favored in the Champagne Stakes in New York earlier today. The dam has had eight other runners compete, and seven of them found the Winner’s Circle at least won. McKinzie is off to a solid start to his stud career, siring Grade 1 winners like Scottish Lassie, Chancer McPatrick, and Baeza. Irad Ortiz does not often ride for Amoss, but they’ve been on a bit of a roll lately, scoring three times together at Churchill last week. As a handicapper, I prefer others, but I do recognize the instant celebrity this horse could become in Philadelphia with a Grade 1 score here.
3 – Diciassette (20-1 ML): Patrick Biancone sends out this undefeated son of Mitole after winning a stakes race in open company in the slop at Gulfstream in August. His dam never won a race beyond six furlongs and her other foals have never won a race beyond seven furlongs. He’s not getting a ton of stamina influence from his sire, Mitole, who won several one turn races including the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and the Met Mile. While horses that he’s sired have won 18% in dirt route races, I don’t think this one has the stamina or the quality to beat a field like this.
4 – Spice Runner (12-1 ML): Steve Asmussen sends out the horse with the racing experience here. This Gun Runner colt notched a Grade 3 victory in the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill last month, when making his 4th career start. He’s a full brother to the Grade 1 winning sprinter, Gunite. That one never won a race longer than seven furlongs, but he was a four time winner on this course, three of which came in stakes company. The dam never won a race longer than 5 ½ furlongs, so despite the stamina influence from Gun Runner, I do wonder if this one will have some distance limitations, as his full brother did. He certainly handled his business when running in a one turn mile last out, but two turns against this level of competition feels like a different ballgame. Asmussen’s horses have struggled at this meet over the last five years, winning only 9% of the time here. I think this one would have to take a big step forward here, and I’m not sure I see that happening.
5 – Litmus Test (8-1 ML): Bob Baffert has only started 20 horses at Keeneland in the last five years, and 15 of those 20 starters came during the Breeders’ Cup Meets in 2020 and 2022. In that span, he had only one starter in this race, which was Carmel Road, who finished at the back of the pack when he was beaten by Forte in 2022. This Nyquist colt comes here after finishing 4th, behind a pair of stablemates in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last month. The SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, and Madaket conglomerate has two runners going in the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita later on this afternoon, so it’s not surprising that he’s taking a swing with one, who cost his connections $875K last August. He is working well for Baffert, so this will be a good test to see how he handles shipping across the country. Baffert’s runners tend to improve when going two turns after sprinting, so this one is a candidate to step up in this race. I like Prat taking the mount, but I do think he’s running into some very good horses that haven’t had to travel as far as he has.
6 – Ted Noffey (4-5 ML): This Into Mischief colt has been absolutely flawless in his first two starts for Todd Pletcher. He was sharp when beating a good field on debut at Saratoga at the beginning of August and he backed up that effort with a monster effort in the Grade 1 Hopeful on Closing day there last month. The third place finisher in that race, Curtain Call, is running in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes about two hours before they go to post here. A strong effort from that colt would certainly be flattering to this one. Much like he did with Forte in 2022, Pletcher is opting to bypass the Champagne in New York in favor of this two turn test. With the Breeders’ Cup run on this oval, that move certainly paid dividends as Forte would go on to win again in that race. The dam was a winner on the dirt, but she did her best work on the turf, winning a stakes race and earning graded stakes placings on the lawn. Her first foal was sired by Authentic (who was sired by Into Mischief) and he won his first start when going two turns on the turf. Clearly this one has an affinity for dirt racing and he’s given no indication that he’ll regress when stretching out. He looks very tough to beat in this race.
7 – Ewing (9-2 ML): This undefeated son of the 2018 winner of this race, Knicks Go, has done nothing wrong in his two career starts. He was very impressive on debut in July, winning by 12 lengths at Saratoga. He came back to score a hard fought one length win in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special in August. He’s already the most accomplished runner from his dam, who has foaled five other horses to make it to the track. None of those runners have won a race at two turns though. Knicks Go is off to a strong start as a stallion though, and he’s had nine horses to route for the first time, with five of them finding the Winner’s Circle. DJ Stable LLC and West Point Thoroughbreds bought this horse earlier this year for $585K. We’ll see how the course plays on the first few days of racing because I do think Jose Ortiz is going to try to make the lead with this colt from his outside draw. If he can shake free, I could see him being tough to run down in the shortened stretch of this 1 1/16 mile race.
The verdict: 7-6-1
I think Ted Noffey is going to be awfully tough in this race, however, I’ll take a small shot and take Ewing on top to take this group all the way on the front end. While his race wasn’t perfect when facing a compact group in the Saratoga Special last out, he was never losing that race. Mark Casse brought him back to Kentucky instead of rushing into the Hopeful. He has been working well since coming to Chruchill and I think he’s going to make the early lead without a lot of resistance. The shortened stretch in the 1 1/16 mile races at Keeneland could play to his advantage. His sire won this race and the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile on this course, so his affinity for this surface could easily be passed along.
Ted Noffey is going to be on all of my multi-race wagers, because he’s been too good to ignore in his two wins. Todd Pletcher has won this race two times in the last three years with Locked and Forte. Forte pulled off the Hopeful/Breeders’ Futurity double, and he parlayed those scores into a Breeders’ Cup victory. This horse certainly appears more than capable of repeating that impressive feat this year.
Blackout Time could be a horse that could add a bit of value to the vertical exotics. His maiden score when going one mile at Ellis was strong. Strong maiden two year old races have become a hallmark of the Ellis park summer meet, and the race he is exiting has already proven to be one of the more productive contests of the summer. He should get a nice, ground-saving trip behind the front-runners in this spot, and I’m thinking that he could be the first one to take a shot at them.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
