This million dollar, Grade 2 contest has featured some good names in recent years, but maybe none bigger than American Pharoah. This race became a bit of a backup plan to launch his legendary three year old campaign, which resulted in the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years back in 2015. Ten are entered this year, but it appears that Bravaro will elect to stay home at Gulfstream and compete in the Fountain of Youth. That leaves nine runners including both Litmus Test and Blackout Time, who will take on the Casse duo of Strategic Risk and Silent Tactic. Post time for this stand alone Sunday Derby Prep race is scheduled for 5:23 (CST).
If you’re looking for the full card analysis for Rebel Day at Oaklawn, I will try to post as much of that as possible tomorrow morning. I’ve had to do some unexpected traveling this week, so I’ll be working on trying to get that finished up tonight and tomorrow.
Oaklawn Park, Sunday 3/1/26, Race 11: The G2 Rebel Stakes
105 Total Derby points (50-25-15-10-5)
1 – Bravaro (8-1 ML, 60-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): He ran 4th in the Fountain of Youth yesterday, so it’s all but certain that he’s going to scratch out of this one.
2 – Litmus Test (7-2 ML, 28-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): I loved this horse when he was entered in the Southwest Stakes last month, but the schedule change might have a thrown a wrench into Bob Baffert’s plans. He didn’t ship for that race and worked out the enxt day at Santa Anita. He’s been working well there each week and should be ready to go in his three year old debut. He was a strong foundation as a two year old, running five times and winning twice, including a score in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. The defection of Bravaro puts him on the rail at the break today, and with a lack of a serious pacesetter, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Prat send him to the lead. He’s a well-meant colt that improved with each start last year. I don’t love it when a trainer has to call an audible for their runners at the 11th hour, but Bob Baffert always seems to have a backup plan. He’s 7-2 on the morning line, but I can’t imagine him not going into the starting gate without being the favorite. The value won’t be great, but I think there is plenty to like here.
3 – Class President (10-1 ML, 125-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Todd Pletcher sent out an expensive, well-bred runner in his third start at Gulfstream yesterday, and it didn’t go well for Jackson Hole. He’ll try to do the same with this son of Uncle Mo today. This one has never tried two turns whereas his stablemate had that experience. He did finish second to Solitude Dude in the Swale Stakes last time out and that one ran a respectable third in the Fountain of Youth yesterday. This is the first horse that Pletcher is sending out at this meet and Johnny V. is coming to town to ride for the first in 2026. Horses that have shipped here from Gulfstream have not done great during this meet, so that is something to keep an eye on with him. He’s not impossible here, but I prefer others.
4 – Blackout Time (8-5 ML, 30-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Ken McPeek sends out this son of Not This Time for his three year old debut today. He had a fairly strong two year season, winning once and finishing second twice. He finished second in his debut when racing at six furlongs. He was much the best in a good maiden race at Ellis in August while going one mile early on. He came back to get within less than three lengths of the two year old champion, Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. He’s been working well in New Orleans for his first start in 2026 and this will certainly be a fair test for him. I wondered in the fall if he was going to be more effective in the long run on the turf, and I still think that could be on the table at some point. However, he’s earned a shot to get into the starting gate at Churchill on the first Saturday in May. He’s a contender here.
5 – Honey’s to Blame (20-1): He was a maiden winner with state bred competition two starts ago. He came back in an open N1X allowance race three weeks ago and was a hard fought winner while racing at the distance of today’s race. While that was a solid effort, nothing I saw from this horse so far tells me that he’s ready to take on a field of this caliber.
6 – Strategic Risk (12-1 ML, 80-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Mark Casse’s dynamic duo is back again in another Derby Points race at Oaklawn. This colt was the winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes at the beginning of January. He didn’t really show up in the Southwest though last month. He’s back in action today, so he must be doing well. He didn’t have the best trip in that race, missing a week of training leading up to the Southwest might have also left him a little bit flat. I do think he’s better than his last race though. He was in a tight spot while three deep on the first turn and then he fell flat after making a move to go five wide on the second turn. His two prior efforts at two turns were sharper, and facing a smaller field today should help him work out a better trip. I won’t rule out a return to form at a nice price with this horse.
7 – Silent Tactic (9-2 ML, 12-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): The other Casse runner was away last early on and he raced at the back of the pack for the first ¾ of the race. The pace up front was solid, which helped his cause as he streaked down the center of the course, drawing clear to win by three widening lengths. I’ve liked this horse since he shipped here from Woodbine. He’s never run a bad race and he’s been a good advertisement for Tacitus as a stallion prospect. The course was playing fairly yesterday, so he should have every shot to make another strong late bid in this race. I just wonder if he’s going to get the right setup. There is less speed signed on for this race, so he can’t leave himself too much work to do at the top of the stretch.
8 – Rancho Santa Fe (12-1 ML, 100-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Brad Cox sends out this Tapit colt for the third time at this meet. Both of the Casse horses took turns beating him in those Derby Point races and he’ll have to deal with both of them and some very nice shippers today. He did make improvements from start one to start two, but I don’t see him as one of the better horses in the Cox barn at the moment.
9 – Time for Music (30-1 ML): Steve Asmussen has both runners in the outside stalls in this race. This colt will be a huge longshot here after losing by double digit lengths in his last two starts. He wasn’t up to snuff in the Remington Springboard Mile and he was straight up bad in an allowance race here last month. I get they paid a pretty penny for him, but I don’t get entering here at all.
10 – Soldier N Diplomat (10-1 ML, 60-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): The more realistic runner for this Asmussen barn is this colt who overcame a wide draw to finish 2nd in the Southwest last month. He was making his first start of the year that day, so I thought he ran a solid race despite breaking from post 11. The racing gods have him slotted in an outside stall once again. While he’s facing a smaller field, I don’t see him easily clearing off from LItmnus Test or Class President in the early stages of this one. I that scenario plays out that will either force him wide or in behind runners. I’m not sure Ortiz wants to be in either spot though. He’s not for me today.
The Verdict: 2-6-7
At the end of the day, the fastest horse in this race is also the one that has the most class. Litmus Test (#2) continues to progress for this barn, and he might be the best Derby hopeful for this barn, at least at this point in the game. His last two starts were sharp and Bob Baffert’s runners don’t go off form easily.
I’ll use both of the Casse horses on the B line in this race, giving the slight preference to Strategic Risk (#6) over Silent Tactic (#7). I like both of these horses that finished 1-2 in the Smarty Jones. While Silent Tactic turned the tables on his stable last time out, but I think it’s possible that he could be pace compromised a bit in this spot. I think Strategic Risk will get a better trip, so I am looking for a step in the right direction.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
