The road to Louisville that winds through New Orleans wraps up with the signature race of the year at the Fair Grounds. There have been strong fields and big names to emerge from this race over the years. However, Grindstone in 1996 was the last horse to win both this race and the Kentucky Derby. Mandaloun used this race to prep for the Derby in 2021. He ran poorly here, which was why his price was inflated on Derby Day. You didn’t cash a ticket if you played him to win that afternoon, but months later, his name was put up the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby when Medina Spirit was officially disqualified. This year, there are nine horses looking to cement their spot in the starting gate at Churchill in just six short weeks. Post time for the Louisiana Derby is scheduled for 5:42 (CDT).
Fair Grounds, Saturday 3/22/25, Race 12: The G2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby
200 Total Derby points (100-50-25-15-10)
1 – Pavlovian (6-1 ML, 50-1 KY Derby Future @ Westgate): While he was not the trainer of record at the time, Doug O’Neill made the call in 2021 to send Hot Rod Charlie here to score in this race. He’s back in town this afternoon with a California bred son of Pavel. This modest colt graduated from the maiden ranks in a five furlong state bred race at Santa Anita back in June. He earned some placings and some checks while finishing in the money in several state bred stakes races. He also finished a distant second in the Best Pal Stakes, which was his only try in open company before shipping to New Mexico for the Sunland Derby last month. While it felt like he was way overbet at 5-1 in that race, he showed a ton of heart while battling tooth and nail with Express Kid, nailing him on the wire by the slimmest of margins. The Beyer Figure was his best by far and the 20 Derby points he earned for that narrow victory certainly can go a long way in getting him closer to the starting gate in the Derby. His works in California have been ordinary since that win, but O’Neill also seems to be looking to build stamina for this 1 3/16 mile test. He was sent to the front last time out , which was a different tactic than usual. Edwin Maldonado rode him for the first time that day and he’s back in the irons again. If he can run back to that race, he figures to be competitive with this group. However, I want to see him run another strong effort before backing him in a tougher spot like this.
2 – Autobahn (8-1 ML): Brad Cox sends out this WinStar homebred for his first try against winners this afternoon. Expectations were high for this horse from the start, but his first two races at Gulfstream this winter were rather pedestrian. He made his third try in a nine furlong maiden special weight race there where he came over the top with a bold bid to power by his five overmatched rivals. Marcelino Pedroza will be the 4th different rider in as many starts aboard this son of Nyquist. The dam was a Grade 3 winner at seven furlongs and she produced Long Neck Paula, who was a stakes winning sprinter herself. While he ran his best race at two turns last time out, it’s fair to think that he’s getting the stamina from his sire. While I’m not worried about the distance, this one is going to need to be a decent bit faster in order to win this race
3 – Chip Honcho (3-1 ML, 50-1 KY Derby Future @ Westgate): The lukewarm morning line favorite has danced every dance on the Derby Trail here at the Fair Grounds thus far. He won the Gun Runner Stakes in December before finishing 4th, despite a bit of a tough trip in the Lecomte. He ran very well to be second to Paladin in the Risen Star last time out. I’m not sure Chad Brown had that colt fully cranked up for the Risen Star, but I do think that was a vastly improved effort from this colt. I also feel that his 4th place finish to Golden Tempo in the Lecomte was a better effort than it looks on paper. Luis Saez took over riding this colt last time and he was aggressive, putting him on the front end early. He showed a lot of heart throughout the stretch run and he made Paladin earn every inch of ground he made up that day. There was a decent distance between him and Golden Tempo, who could do no better than 3rd that day. While I think Pavlovian, Blacksmith, Easterly, and Emerging Market could all show some speed, I think those horses will be jockeying for position more so than applying serious pressure to this colt early on. I also would not be surprised if this horse is not the second or third choice in the wagering when they open the gates. He could be afforded a relatively easy lead, and he’s definitely trending in the right direction. Steve Asmussen has won this race five times and he’s won two of the last four runnings and I think he has a good shot at earning his 6th trophy today.
4 – Universe (12-1 ML, 100-1 KY Derby Future @ Westgate): After showing some potential when finishing third in the Champagne and second in both the Street Sense and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall, the three year old campaign for this colt has not gone as planned. He was flat in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn and he could do no better than 4th when running in the Risen Star last month. The human connections that brought you Mystik Dan in 2024 are paired up again, but I’m not sure I’ve seen enough evidence to believe that he’s ready to move forward to compete at this level.
5 – Golden Tempo (7-2 ML, 40-1 KY Derby Future @ Westgate): Cherie DeVaux is looking to get to the Derby with this beautifully bred son of Curlin. He was a last to first winner in both his maiden special weight debut at six furlongs and in the Grade 3 Lecomte back in January. He looked primed to take a decent step forward in the Risen Star last month, but he wasn’t gaining on the leaders with the same energy that we saw in his first two starts. Blinkers go on this afternoon for the first time, and while that hasn’t been a great angle for DeVaux’s runners, that may be what this horse needs. He had a pretty strong pace in front of him when he was able to make up that ground to score in the Lecomte, but the pace was a little more moderate last month. On paper, that’s going to be the case again today. Jose Ortiz has this course figured out, so I don’t anticipate the ride being an issue. There are some other runners in here that are lightly raced, so I do wonder how he stacks up against them. If the odds are close with Chip Honcho, as they are on the morning line, I think his rival is the better bet.
6 – Spirit of Royal (20-1 ML): Dallas Stewart sends out the longest shot on the board in this race after finishing 9th last month in the Southwest Stakes over at Oaklawn. He broke his maiden there two starts when going two turns for the first time. While that was a solid win, it’s worth noting that the field he beat was not the strongest, seeing as how many of the better three year olds on the grounds ran the week before on the all two year old card. He did earn a career top Beyer Figure for that effort, but he was never a threat in that race. I like Silent Tactic a decent amount and I think that one is certainly comparable to some of the runners here. I’m passing on this son of Global Campaign today.
7 – Blacksmith (6-1 ML, 75-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): This race is not usually on Bob Baffert’s radar for his runners, but when you have a stable loaded with as many high priced three year olds as he does, I guess all of these larger Derby Points races need to be considered. He did win this race all the way back in 2004 with Wimbledon. He’s trying to earn that second trophy today with this recent maiden breaker. His speed figures are all over the place, but he has kept good company in California while trying to get that elusive first win. He ran a big race as a maiden to be second to his stablemate, Litmus Test, in the Los Alamitos Futurity at the end of December. Baffert avoided the temptation to keep entering him in Derby Points races before breaking his maiden. That does make me wonder if his general belief is that his big figure at Los Al was a bit fluky. I also wonder if the Baffert brand is going keep this horse below his 6-1 morning line figure, thus limiting any real value in using this colt. He’s the toughest horse to get a read on here, but I don’t think Baffert’s three year old crop is as deep as he thought it would be. He has the potential to be a good horse, but he needs to figure some things out.
8 – Easterly (6-1 ML): Brad Cox is rolling with two recent Gulfstream maiden breakers in this race as he also sends out this son of Uncle Mo. He’s bringing Edgard Zayas along for the ride today. Zayas hasn’t ridden a ton of Cox, but they are 6-14 (43%) together since the start of 2025. The dam didn’t do much on the track and while her runners have been productive, none of them have done anything of note. That didn’t stop WinStar from investing $525K to purchase this colt in 2024. With WinStar owning both Cox runners in this race, I’m expecting Zayas to try to have this one be a little more forward, putting some modest pressure on Chip Honcho, while allowing Autobahn to sit in the middle of the pack to try to make a run. There is also a chance that one of these runners could defect and wait for another prep race in the next two weeks. However, I’m not sure if any of those spots would be any easier. Much like his stablemate, I think he’s going to need to be faster to win this race.
9 – Emerging Market (6-1 ML, 60-1 KY Derby Future @ Westgate): After a striking debut on the Sam F. Davis undercard last month at Tampa, a lot of people have been waiting to see what this son of Candy Ride will do for an encore. He locked up with Powershift in that race and those two were in a race of their own last time out. Powershift came back as a maiden in the Tampa Bay Derby where he did not fare well. However, his trip didn’t help his cause in that race. Flavien Prat comes to town to ride for Chad Brown. It’s interesting to note that they are 0-5 since 2025 when teaming up here. Gaffalione filled in to ride Paladin last month, despite the fact that Prat was aboard for his first two starts. He’s the first foal to race from a mare that did nothing on the track in three career starts. She was sired by Empire Maker, so the pedigree to get the distance is there. Going this distance in just his second start is asking an awful lot. While Powershift is a nice horse, I think that Beyer Figure is a bit misleading. That was essentially a two horse race for the last ⅜ of a mile and those horses threw down. He won that battle, but this field is considerably deeper and how he responds to having more pressure is a major question mark that he’ll have to answer. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t the favorite at post time, but I think he’s worth trying to beat.
The Verdict: 3-5-7
I don;t think this is the deepest of the major preps, so I’m going to lean on the locals here. I think Chip Honcho (#3) made his trip last out, making sure that he was clear from any of the issues that he had to try to overcome two back. He took a big step forward for a barn that knows how to get these horses ready. Luis Saez was a difference maker in the saddle and at the end of the day, if you believe in Paladin as a serious Derby horse, then it’s hard to take this horse seriously here. I think he gets the trip and gets his picture taken today.
Golden Tempo (#5) came from off the pace to beat the top pick in the Lecomte. He couldn’t keep pace though when the pace was more moderate last out. I do think the added experience, especially at nine furlongs, is going to prove to be helpful for this colt who appears to be bred to run all day. Blinkers are going on, which hopefully can keep him a little closer to the font end in the early stages. The long stretch here definitely suits his style, so I do believe he has every right to improve.
Blacksmith (#7) is a bit of a wild card, coming here from the Baffert barn. His probably on the B-tier from this stable, but we’ve seen those horses step up when they’ve had their turn in the spotlight. The potential has always been there for this colt, but he’s struggled to put it all together. His third place finish two back wasn’t a great look at the time, but Robusta, who won that race, came back to run a huge race at long odds in the San Felipe Stakes two weeks ago. I don’t want to use this one much if his odds dip far below his morning line figure, but he’s run well enough at times to use him as a backup, especially if the public is hammering the Brown runner.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Westgate or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
