While this race has been lacking in recent years, there’s no shortage of talent shipping to Hillsborough, Florida this year. High profile two year olds making their three year old debuts will take on some highly promising debut winners who will be looking to make their mark on the Derby Trail today. Post time for the top race of the year at Tampa Bay Downs is scheduled for 5:35 (EST).
Tampa Day Downs, Saturday 3/7/26, Race 11: The G3 Esmark Tampa Bay Derby
105 Total Derby points (50-25-15-10-5)
1 – Redland Rebel (10-1 ML): Patrick Biancone has always been known for being a little unconventional at times and that feels like the case with this gelding. He debuted in the summer at Gulfstream going six furlongs on the dirt. He came back three weeks later in a one mile race on the turf where he was a handy winner, easily vanquishing his 11 rivals. He missed the rest of 2025, but he was sharp when coming back in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes at Gulfstream at the end of January. He led every step of the way before being nailed on the wire in that contest. Most of his AM work works have been over the turf course at Palm Meadows, so it is interesting to see this one getting back on the dirt today. His owners did nominate him for the Triple Crown races prior to winning that stakes race, so trying a race like this has likely been a thought for a while now. Biancone has strong numbers with runners going from turf to dirt. This feels like a good time to experiment because if he doesn’t run well, a race like the Appalachian at Keeneland next month would be a logical fallback spot. He’s a speedy horse on the turf, so we’ll see if that translates to the main track here. Speed and the rail is not a terrible thing on this course, so I can’t fault anyone taking a swing with him here. If his odds float up closer to 20-1, I’d consider taking a small chance on him.
2 – Talkin (15-1 ML, 100-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): Danny Gargan sends out this son of Good Magic for his three year old debut this afternoon. He won a strong maiden allowance race at the end of the Saratoga meet when making his career debut. Four winners came out of that race, including Grade 2 winner, Further Ado, who he’ll see today. He came back to run in the Champagne where he ran second, well behind Napoleon Solo, who who struggled in the Fountain of Youth last weekend. He bypassed the Breeders’ Cup and made his last start as a two year old in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. He drew post 11 in the nine furlong contest. He hit the gate at the break, causing him to break a bit awkwardly. It certainly didn’t help his cause while trying to find somewhere to tuck and save some ground. He ended up being about four wide all the way around the first turn. He was in behind horses and tried to go with Renegade (the second place finisher) who made a storing outside move, trying to get the jump on Paladin. He ended up being boxed in and then boxed in again by another horse. He faded badly, but the trip was the bigger issue. Gargan gave him about 45 days off and then started him up at Palm Meadows. He clearly has some ability and I think he can be forgiven for his effort in the Remsen. Paladin and Renegade were already winners on the Derby Trail, so that race has turned out to be one of the more useful two year old races last year. I liked him a lot in the Fountain of Youth last weekend, but the fact that he defected from that spot in favor of this race is a little puzzling. While that field came up strong, this race feels equally as tough. He drew a good post for that race and having an extra week in between starts would likely have given his connections more choices for his final tune up before the Derby. At 15-1, he feels like a completely under the radar runner in this spot, and I still think he could have a shot in this one.
3 – Roger That Dana (15-1 ML): This Florida bred son of Awesome Slew has never finished off the board in three career starts. However, he’s been soundly beaten in his last two stakes tries. After a solid maiden breaking score in state bred maiden special weight company, he came back to finish a well-beaten third to Strategic Risk in the Florida Stallion Series Stakes, In Reality Division at the end of November. He did all the heavy lifting on the front end in that race, holding off the heavy favorite, Khozalite, when he was asked to produce a run. While he won that battle, he was no match for the winner, who validated that win by scoring in open company in the Smarty Jones Stakes. This ridgling also faced open competition, running in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at the beginning of January. He stalked the pace that day after setting the pace in his first two starts. He came with a wide bid, but the heavy favorite, Commandment, came through an opening and blew the doors off that field. That effort was validated last week when Commandment came back to win the Fountain of Youth. He won the battle for second that day when going off at 23-1. He’ll likely be a similar price in this race today, if not longer. He has decent early speed, but I think with this group he could be either chasing in between runners or under pressure every step of the way up front. I am concerned that he defected from the Holy Bull five weeks ago and has only had one posted workout since then. He does like to compete and he doesn’t just throw in the towel when he’s headed. I think some of the others are classier horses, so his ceiling might be the bottom rung of a trifecta.
4 – Hulkamania (20-1 ML): The first of three second time starters in this race is this son of McKinzie, who was a professional winner at seven furlongs when making his first start on this course last month. He’s the first foal to compete from an unraced mare that was sired by Frosted. He was wrapped up late and galloped out well while scoring by four easy lengths. He transitions to a two turn race where he’ll be a longer price today, especially when considering the strong figures that the other second time starters put up. Whitworth Beckman had two runners graduate from sprint races to go on to win in stakes company in their second starts last year. Since taking out his trainers license, he has only had three maiden winners that went to a stakes race in their subsequent starts, so seeing that two of them were winners does feel worth mentioning. This is a horse that would have fit better in this race when facing the 2024 or the 2025 fields, however, this is a strong group he’s up against this year. Enlisting Jareth Loveberry to ride is also an interesting decision. Daniel Centeno rode this colt on debut and Loveberry has not ridden a horse at this meet yet this season. He’s not impossible, but I think this is another runner that is in a tough spot.
5 – Powershift (7-2 ML, 80-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): He’s one of two maidens in this race, but despite not winning, he certainly made an impression in his career debut. He made his first start in a two turn maiden special weight race here on the Sam F. Davis card last month. He stalked the pace, sitting a very comfortable third, in behind runners. He tipped out into the three path and made his run while another first time starter, Emerging Market for Chad Brown, followed his move and came after him going four wide. These horses locked up in a duel for the duration of the stretch, with the Chad Brown runner getting the slight edge. There was some bumping in the stretch, but when watching the head-on replay, it was clear that he was the one who initiated most of the contact. Pletcher wheels him back in four weeks, which is a little quicker than he usually likes. However, if the Derby is the goal, I think Pletcher would want two more races into him before then. John Velazquez, who guided home the lightly raced Class President for Pletcher last weekend in the Rebel at Oaklawn, picks up the mount with Irad Ortiz sticking with Further Ado. We know he likes the course and can handle the distance without an issue. He won’t have Lasix, so that is something to keep an eye on. Regardless, I think he’s a player in this race, and if he’s the third choice when all is said and done, it feels like the value will be fair.
6 – Further Ado (9-5 ML, 20-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): This Gun Runner colt came to Keeneland last fall after a pair of modest efforts in one turn races at Saratoga. He faced 12 rivals in his first try at two turns that afternoon. After settling midpack, while being kept well on the outside, in his first two starts, Irad Ortiz Jr. put him closer to the front end that day and after pressing the pacesetter, he made a strong bid for the lead and he opened up with ease. He drew clear to win by 20 impressive lengths, posting a very strong 98 Beyer Speed Figure. That race stamped him as an instant Derby contender, so all eyes were on him when he showed up in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill. Irad rode him like he was the best horse in the race, allowing him to settle off the leaders, while always having him in the clear. He came with a three wide bid on the turn where it looked like he was going to blow Soldier N Diplomat out of the water. However, he struggled to change leads, a problem that he had while sprinting early on as a two year old, and idled a bit before finally grinding by. Neither the final time, nor the speed figures for that effort were all that impressive, and furthermore, the other six runners from that race have not done much since. Horses coming out of that race have started a total of 11 times. Only one of them has a win since that race and that victory came from the 5th place finisher, Cherokee Nation, who won a maiden special weight race last Friday after two more losses. The dam has produced some quality horses, so the pairing with Gun Runner feels like a winning combination. The big question that remains will be which version of this horse shows up. We saw what he can do when he puts it all together, but he only was able to do that one time in four starts thus far. That maiden race at Keeneland and the Kentucky Jockey Club were not great races in terms of quality. This will be a real test for him, so taking too short of a price is going to be asking a lot. I think he has the talent, but this might be a spot to try to beat this one.
7 – Thunder Buck (20-1 ML, 50-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): This son of Gun Runner made his first three starts for Brad Cox. After finishing a distant 4th in a good maiden race at Keeneland, Cox brought him to the Fair Grounds where he could run with Lasix as a two year old. He ran well while sitting in the middle of the pack early on. He came with a strong, five wide bid to graduate from the maiden ranks. He came back a month later in the Lecomte Stakes where he didn’t run a step. Shortly after that race, Calumet Farm moved him into Brendan Walsh’s barn. He worked four times for his new trainer at Palm Meadows in Florida and this is the spot they decided to try for his first start for Walsh. I respect the outfit and he does a nice job with new acquisitions. His works have been okay, but not exceptional, so it makes it difficult for me to believe that he’s going to come here and run his eyeballs out against horses that have simply been faster up to this point.
8 – The Puma (12-1 ML): The other maiden in this race has two nice tries to start his career. He ran into Chief Wallabee on debut and came within a length and a half of him. He just turned in a strong effort to narrowly miss winning in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last weekend. Gustavo Delgado brought this colt back to run in the Sam F. Davis where he couldn’t keep pace with Renegade in the late stages of that race. He finished 3rd, beaten six lengths that day while going off at 5-2. He’s facing a deeper field for his second try at two turns and with his post, I worry that he’s going to be in chase mode once again. That didn’t end particularly well for him last time, at least in terms of the trophy. Delgado tabs Javier Castellano to ride him once again. They teamed up to win the Derby with Mage in 2023, so familiarity is certainly there. I like the horse, but I don’t like him in this race today.
9 – Canaletto (5-2 ML, 15-1 KY Derby Future @ Caesar’s): The half brother to Sandman is looking to follow up his strong debut effort with another bold performance this afternoon. His debut at Gulfstream caught a lot of people’s attention, so much so that he’s sitting at 15-1 in the Derby Futures Book at Caesar’s. He broke from the outside gate in a one turn mile debut at Gulfstream. He made the lead with relative ease and powered home with relative ease. The third place finisher in that race came back to break his maiden last out and the runner-up shot his shot as a maiden in the Fountain of Youth (it did not go well though). He’s had almost six weeks between starts, which feels like it was done by design. He’s been working quite nicely down at Payson Park in preparation for his first try against winners. Flavien Prat retains the mount for a barn that is looking to strengthen their hand for the Derby, which is now less than two months away. I am curious as to what the tactics are going to be with this one. He was sent to the front on debut, but now he’s drawn the outside post in his first two turn try. Speed is typically fairly decent on this course, especially on the bigger race days (historically speaking). There is other speed signed on, so this could be a spot for him to see how comfortably he’ll rate. If so, there’s a good chance that he could get the jump on the other two short prices in this field. He’s another one that will be racing without Lasix for the first time, but he’s certainly a player in this race.
The Verdict: 2-5-9
There’s a clear “Big 3” in this race, but I’m going to stay true and side with Talkin (#2), who was my top pick in the Fountain of Youth last weekend. He scratched out of that race in favor of this one, which I don’t love. However, there isn’t a lot of juice around this horse, especially with the flashy efforts of some of the recent maiden breakers. He has been working well for Danny Gargan though, and he showed some definite ability in his two year old season. The Remsen Stakes was a complete fail, but there were multiple spots of trouble. He;s bred to handle two turns, so I’ll hope that he can connect here at a price.
Between Powershift (#5), Further Ado (#6), and Canaletto (#9), the horse I think I have the most faith in is Powershift. Despite not winning last out, he was clearly beaten by a good horse. He got valuable race day experience on a crowded day at Tampa, so he’s going to know what to expect this afternoon. I loved the way he advanced at will going into the turn, and he finished well despite coming up a touch short.
Canaletto (#9) was really good when making his first start at Gulfstream. The dam produced Sandman, who started in the Derby last year after winning the Arkansas Derby in his prior start. The owners paid a million dollars for this colt, who looked every bit the part in January. The outside draw and the pace scenario are questions for me in this race, but he might be too good.
Further Ado (#6) is a bit of a wild-card to me, so it’s hard to take him at face value as the favorite. His best race likely wins here, especially with his two year old foundation. However, we only saw his best effort once in four tries. I wanted to see more from him at Churchill in his last start, and while it’s hard to knock a win, that field he beat wasn’t all that good. I’m also a little curious if the connections are rushing a bit to get ready, leaving him a little light for this one.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
