CAWs and Late Odds Drops

I don’t spend much time thinking or complaining about CAWs. But that’s because of the way I play horses. My bets go in very early (once scratches and track surface is reported). I never watch the tote board and seldom watch live racing. Instead, I prefer watching replays each evening in the company of an adult beverage. So, I’m pretty oblivious to late odds changes unless I see someone ranting about it on social media.

If CAWs were around 40 years ago, when I was a young & handsome horseplayer, they would have driven me crazy. In fact, they likely would have driven me out of the game.

Back then, I spent many afternoons at AQU, BEL, MTH or SAR when I should have been in a lecture hall getting a more traditional education. I had just 9 races to consider (no simulcasting) and bet about half of them. My routine was to study the form each morning and calculate what some call “fair odds” for every runner. At 2 MTP I would head to the betting window and play any runner with odds greater than my “fair odds.” The price of my runners would sometimes increase (usually when a longshot) and sometimes decline (usually when a favorite). But odds changes were relatively modest. I did OK. I didn’t get rich, but I never declared personal bankruptcy.

If I played the same way today, I’d be dead broke within a month.

With CAWs in the game, dramatic late odds changes are commonplace. What’s worse than having a tough-trip loser? Having a $9 winner when you bet him at 7/1 with 1 MTP.

I had to change my modus operandi to survive. So now, I use the Change-of-Pace report from ThoroPACE.com, which identifies 6 to 8 potential overlays per day and the 10 to 12 runners given upgrades by racingflow.com. I review the past performances for these (and only these) races. If I don’t see anything objectionable about the runner (e.g., a very low trainer/jock win %) or what looks like a beatable opponent, I make a play.

I recently looked at every North American race over the past 6 months and examined the difference between odds at 1 minute to post and off odds. Here is what I found:

• Of 97,303 starters, 65,701 (68%) did not drop in odds (they either stayed the same or increased). Their mean odds increased from 12/1 to almost 20/1. However, they were pretty awful bets: 8.8% win rate & a $2 win ROI of $1.37.
• 19,990 starters (21%) dropped in odds by 1% to 33%. Their mean odds declined from 8/1 to 7/1. But they were somewhat better bets: an 18.1% win rate & a $2 win ROI of $1.73.
• 10,394 starters (11%) dropped in odds by 34% to 66%. Their mean odds declined from 8/1 to 4/1. Despite the drop, they were even better bets: 27.2% win rate & a $2 win ROI of $1.82.
• 1,224 starters (1.2%) dropped in odds an astounding 67% or more. Their mean odds declined from an average of 7/1 to just 2/1. But their win and place rates were 46% and 66%. Their $2 win ROI was $1.96, and their $2 WP ROI was $3.90. It wouldn’t take much of a rebate to turn a decent profit.

If your approach is to watch the tote board and make bets when runners are loading, I suggest you limit play to NYRA and Southern California. At AQU and SAR the percentage of runners dropping by one-third or more were just 1.3% and 0.4%, respectively. (CAW restrictions seem to work!) The rates at DMR and SA were 1.0% and 1.8%, respectively.

At many tracks (mostly smaller ones), >15% of starters dropped by at one-third or more: ASD, BTP, CBY, CT, CTD, DED, DEL, EVD, FE, FL, FP, HST, IND, LAD, LS, MNR, MVR, PEN, PRM, RP, SUN, TDN, TIM, TUP, WRD & ZIA. If I were a tote board watcher / last minute bettor, I’d avoid these tracks like the plague.

One last fun fact: late droppers are fairly uncommon on the Kentucky circuit: CD 6%, ELP 5%, KD 8%, KEE 6% & TP 8%. But at each track, runners that drop by at least 33% in the last minute were all profitable. $2 win ROIs were: CD $2.08, ELP $2.83, KD $2.37, KEE $2.73 & TP $2.21.