Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday 8/2/26 – By Eric Solomon

We’ll end the weekend with an eight race, Sunday card at Monmouth. The rails for the four turf races this afternoon will be set at 24 feet. Post time for the first race is 12:50 PM (EDT), which is very significant this afternoon as there is a $49K carryover in the Win-Early Pick-5 which starts with the first race of the day.

We’re a week out from the $500 Whitney Day Monmouth/Saratoga Handicapping Contest. This is one of the tournaments at Monmouth where there is a 25% on site bonus, which should be great motivation to get yourself to the track if you’re in the general vicinity. More information can be found by clicking the link below. 

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/500-whitney-day-monmouth-saratoga-contest-3/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll get the ball rolling with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. It’s tough for me to get behind Lumber Legacy (#3) as the favorite in this spot. He ran well two back at 12-1 when he finished third at this level. He’s 0-12 though and that kind of effort feels like the exception as opposed to the norm. This is also a pretty swift give up spot for Miguel Clement’s Alibi Story (#1). He debuted in a 10 furlong maiden allowance race at Colonial where he had nothing left for the final ⅜ of a mile. This is a steep drop for a horse that cost $160K and the fact that he debuted in a 1 ¼ mile race suggests to me that he was showing very little speed in his morning drills. Someone has to win this race though and I feel like the most likely winner is Gaborone (#6). He came with a solid late bid two starts ago, but he was a little flat in the stretch in his last. I’m hopeful that Edwin Gonzalez will try to get him involved a little sooner in this spot as he’s shown very little early speed in his last few tries. It’s the Stones (#2) ran a bit of a weird race last time out at this level. He pressed the pace from the rail, but started to fall back. He went from 2nd to 7th in less than a furlong, but he did cut the corner and finish with some interest to get back into third. I do like that he didn’t quit after losing that ground on the turn. Assuming that the wagering public leans into the two favorites, I’d be willing to chalk that race up to a learning experience, in hopes that he can build upon that effort today. On deeper tickets, I’d give a look to Howitzer (#4). He debuted in a six furlong race against better two weeks ago and didn’t show much .He drops in class and moves to the turf, which I do think he is going to appreciate more. His half brother, Acheron, was also campaigned by Timothy Hills and he was a three time winner in turf route races. The sire, War Dancer, was a Grade 3 winner at 12 furlongs on the turf and a Grade 2 winner at 10 furlongs on the turf. While War Dancer has dull numbers with runners trying turf routes for the first time, (only 2 winners from 80 starters, 2.5%). However, just over 25% of those same runners have finished in the money. 

Race 2:

A half dozen three and four year old fillies will go six furlongs on the dirt in this maiden special weight contest. Miguel Clement horses bookend the field with Tremendous Bee (#1) on the rail and Liam’s Diva (#6) in the outside stall. Tremendous Bee is the heavy favorite in this race after a pair of strong second place finishes to start off his career. There was a significant gap between his first two tries though. She’s also cross-entered in upstate New York at Finger Lakes on Wednesday. She is worth using if she does come here, however, this spot feels more like a backup plan. She was entered on Thursday at Finger Lakes, but that card was cancelled after three races due to weather. That race was brought back for this Wednesday coming up and she’s scheduled to be a part of it. She’s a player at either track. However, regardless of her decision, I’ll make Antandra (#4) the top pick in this spot. She has been based here, but Lindsay Schultz saw something to make her think that this horse could be competitive at the maiden allowance level at Churchill. She was outrun for most of the race as they were flying early. She came back home and has worked well since. I think she’ll move forward to get the job done in this spot. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint 5 ½ furlongs on the turf in this beaten $16K-$14K claiming race. Postino’s Prophecy (#2) did scratch from her race yesterday, presumably in favor of this spot. I think this is a pretty competitive race, and I liked what I saw from Emily Reward (#6) when getting back on the grass in her last start. She waited in behind the front runners and was unable to split rivals at the top of the stretch. She went to Plan B where she tipped out and ran down the leader to score with relative ease. Her two tries on the turf were simply better than any of her dirt races. The added distance should be in her favor as she moves up the restricted class ladder. Dale’s Bluff (#7) notched her second career victory in a starter allowance at Delaware in her most recent start. She showed continued improvement with each start last fall. She’s making her third start off the layoff while boosting another improving pattern coming into the race. She’ll need to prove that she can win a race outside of Delaware, but I do think she’s coming into this race in good form. Lady d’Oro (#4) is also worth including while getting back on the turf for Michael Pino. She was sharp in her races here back in 2024. She’s had some trouble staying sound, but she’s back with Pino, who found a soft spot for her on the dirt in her last start. She scored there despite running a figure that was well below her average. It’s been over a year since she’s put together an effort good enough to beat this group, so having some trepidation is probably a good thing. I see her as more of a backup since her best effort is likely good enough to score here.

Race 4:

This is a $25K starter allowance which is restricted to horses that have never won two races. Only six are entered in this race, which I think runs through Ghostwriter (#5). While it’s not easy to go from a maiden score to beating winners in the next start, I do think this horse is well positioned to do just that. I think he proved in his most recent start that sprinting on the dirt is what he is going to do best. He handily defeated a $40K-$30K maiden claiming group last time out and he could have won by more. Edwin Gonzalez taking the mount is also a plus. I’ll use Thunder Chuck (#3) as the back up in this race. I’m still waiting for him to show that he can be the horse that was stakes placed over the winter at Gulfstream. The fact that he ran in a race last out with a $12,500 claiming tag tells me that the connections aren’t sure we’re not going to consistently see that kind of effort from this Good Magic gelding. However, his B effort is still going to make him competitive with this group. 

Race 5:

We’ll close out the Win-Early Pick-5 with an optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance race for fillies and mares traveling 5 ½ furlongs over the turf course. I think the New York invaders have an edge over the local players in this race. Paris Carver (#2) was one of four horses that were involved in a spill in the Wild Applause Stakes at the beginning of the month at the Spa. She was trying stakes company  while also trying two turns on the turf in a race where she was facing winners for the first time. She was very sharp when breaking her maiden on this course back in May and assuming that she is right mentally after the incident last out, I think she is the most likely winner in this race. I also want to have Medici Road (#7) on my tickets. Miguel Clement trained the winner of the Incredible Revenge Stakes here yesterday and he’ll send out this four year old Quality Road filly that broke her maiden at Saratoga last month. That was a big effort while making her first start in 10 months. It feels a little odd to ship her here after that last effort, as I do think she could compete at this level at the Spa. However, since she is a homebred, I don’t hate the conservative approach for her either. 

Race 6:

The $3 Late Pick-3 begins with a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs on the dirt. One thing to note with this race is that the conditions here are for horses that have either never won four times or have not won a race in six months. There are other N2L and N3L races at this condition that will have the same beaten claiming designation in their running lines, but this is a tougher condition. There are three runners in this race coming off unusually fast races, and I’m not banking on any of them to get the job done in this race. I think Cruise Missile (#3) makes a lot of sense here and could easily add to the gaudy first off the claim numbers for Michael Pino. She was plucked for $10K from an open claiming race where she was defeated by Leftover Sushi (#6). That is one of the ladies that is coming off a stronger effort, but I’m not convinced that she can replicate the effort in this spot. While Cruise Missile found herself primarily in chase mode throughout the duration of her last race, she has other stronger efforts that prove she belongs at this level . Fussy Girl (#7) came out of the same race where she was forced well out into the middle course when making a menacing move on the turn. She flattened out late in that spot, but she has faster efforts in her running lines that make me think she’ll be able to rebound. 

Race 7:

The final turf race of the day is a state bred, optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race going 5 ½ furlongs. This is one of the deeper fields at this condition here at Monmouth. I think this is a clever spot for Matthew’s Ticket (#6) to face winners for the first time. This Laurel invader scored in open maiden allowance company in his most recent start. Philip Capuano has not saddled a runner here at Monmouth yet, but he has won with 21% of the runners that he’s campaigned in 2026. While he went to the front last out when graduating from the maiden ranks, I don’t think this three year old gelding definitely needs the lead to score. Graham Motion has done well with the three runners he’s saddled at this meet. He’ll send out Party Guest (#4) here. He had this one ready to score in his turf debut at Colonial last month. Like the top pick, he’ll travel in order to face winners for the first time. There’s a lot to like here. St. Erling (#9) was a winner two weeks ago when breaking his maiden at this level in the slop here. He’s still able to compete at this level without a tag since he has only one win. He’s switching back to the turf, but he handled his business on the lawn prior to going on the shelf. On deeper tickets, don’t be afraid to toss in Island Spirit (#8). In this space yesterday, I talked about how Rory Huston’s runners tend to improve as the meet rolls on. He connected with 8-1 and 5-1 winners yesterday. He’ll send out this six year old gelding that has a pair of nice efforts in her last two tries on the dirt. 

Race 8:

We’ll close out the week with a beaten $5K claiming race going one mile and 70 yards on the dirt. Gaelicheartofgold (#5) was not up to the task when sprinting the slop in his last start. He was very sharp two back when going a similar distance on the dirt. He has two wins in two tries at this distance on this course, so I do see him as one to upgrade here. Street Glide (#6) always seems to show up, even if he comes up a bit short. He has one win in his last six starts, but he finished in the money each time. On deeper tickets, Balantyne (#4) is making his first start off the Silvino Ramirez claim. This angle was a great play last season, and while he hasn’t been as sharp at this meet, there are definitely things to like with this gelded son of Tapit.

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 52/195 (26.7%), $295.90 ($1.52 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet