Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 8/1/26 – By Eric Solomon

The month of August will start with an eight race card at Monmonmouth Park today. This program is headlined by a competitive edition of the Incredible Revenge Stakes for fillies and mares sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. Post time for the first race is 12:50 PM (EDT).

We’re a week out from the $500 Whitney Day Monmouth/Saratoga Handicapping Contest. This is one of the tournaments at Monmouth where there is a 25% on site bonus, which should be great motivation to get yourself to the track if you’re in the general vicinity. More information can be found by clicking the link below. 

https://www.monmouthpark.com/event/500-whitney-day-monmouth-saratoga-contest-3/

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. The rails will be set 12 feet for the three races carded for the grass today. This race likely runs through Hop To It (#1), however, there would be some concerns with using this one as a single type horse. She’s burned money twice at this level, running solid races, but coming short at Penn National both times. She is cross-entered at Colonial Downs this afternoon in the opener of their huge card, but she is the first to get in off the AE list in that race. While the purse here is half of that race, she’s guaranteed a spot in the gate against a softer field. She’d be an A line play for me, but I’ll try a little bit of a price to use as the top pick. I made a case for Balitea (#7) at this level two weeks ago. She ran back to her prior figure, but she was a distant third at long odds that day. After pairing those last two Beyer Figures, I do see this as a spot where she could move forward. She’s drawn the outside post, so Melissa Iorio is going to have to avoid having her too wide because I don’t think this filly is good enough to overcome significant ground loss. However, mild improvement from her likely gets her very close with this group. 

Race 2:

Three year olds and up will sprint six furlongs in a $25K-$20K maiden claiming race that will be the first one carded on the dirt today. Many of the runners in this race are coming off races that were below expectations, telling me that many of these are in suspect form. It’salljustadream (#3) on the other hand is coming off a career best effort when he finished third against a better group here two weeks ago. Rory Huston’s runners typically struggle early in the meet, but business for him tends to pick up as the meet goes on. He opted to keep this New Jersey bred son of Irish War Cry protected by employing the waiver, which tells me that the barn still thinks this horse has a higher ceiling. Another New Jersey bred that has a live look in this race is Mystical Merlin (#2). He was very competitive in open maiden special weight races here last summer. He just missed at this level in his second career start almost a full year ago. He was moved into Chuck Spina’s barn and his first two tries in state bred maiden allowance races have not been up to snuff. He did improve in his last start though and I think he could be sitting on a better effort while getting some class relief here for his third start off the break. Royal Merit (#5) is the morning line favorite here for Mike Dini. He was very sharp three starts back when he just missed in a $40K-$30K maiden claiming race. Blinkers were put on for his last two starts, which were not his best. I’m willing to forgive the turf try two back, but I wonder if his dull race last time around was a function of not liking the equipment change. Edwin Gonzalez has done quite well for himself on days where he’s been riding here and he’ll get the assignment today. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will go a mile and 70 yards on the main track in this $7,500-$6,500 N2L claiming race. This is another race where the current form is tough to make heads or tails of. Bee N Dee (#7) is the morning line favorite and I don’t see a better alternative here. She was third at this level in her last star where Rachel Caroline (#6) finished ahead of her. That eight year old mare is 1-34 though and hasn’t won a race since breaking her maiden over five years ago. If they’re relatively close in the final wagering, I can’t touch that mare, at least in the multi-race wagers and in any spot on top. While the ceiling for Bee N Dee is not particularly high, I just think she’s more consistent than this group and is well spotted to score for the second time. Sexpectations (#1) would be the backup for me in this race. She went off form badly when running at this level earlier in the meet. However, her last race in an off the turf race was better and more consistent with the kinds of efforts we saw from her over the winter at Tampa. If she runs back to that race, I could see her getting a piece of the action in this one.

Race 4:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a nice, ten horse field assembled for this $5K starter allowance race going six furlongs. This is one of those races that has some added flavor from the Parx based runners that are looking for a race while they take the summer break over in Bensalem. I do think the starter allowance races at Parx are generally strong races for their conditions, so I tend to like playing horses from there at this level. One horse that caught my eye is looking to get back into starter allowance after going off form for awhile. Competitive Saint (#8) has two straight wins with beaten $5K claimers and has been steadily improving over the summer. He’s a nine year old gelding that is not the same horse that he once was, so I’m not sure how much higher his ceiling is. I do like that he was claimed by a barn that has been sharp first off the claim lately. I also think he’s a good fit here as the early tempo in this spot should be on the lively side. My Man Woody (#1) makes sense coming here from Parx as well. With the exception of a dull try two back, he’s been very sharp in races at this level. He has tactical speed that should put him in a decent position on the track. I don’t love the rail draw, but he’s a professional that has finished first or second in 18 of 51 career trips to the track. President Z (#10) feels like the best of the local contingent in this race. Speed is the name of his game, so if we’re seeing a speed favoring course on Friday, he could be one to upgrade here. He was claimed for $5K two back as he continues to make his way back from a year long layoff. He’s another one that might not really ever get back to being the horse he was prior to getting injured, but he does look like a nice fit here. 

Race 5, The $100K Incredible Revenge Stakes:

Trying to figure out how this race is going to come together is quite a challenge. Nine fillies and mares are entered in the body of this 5 ½ furlong turf sprint. However, five of those nine horses are cross-entered in four different races and three different tracks. Buttercream Babe (#7) is actually cross-entered in two different races at Ellis this weekend, but the intent seems to be to keep her in Kentucky. Both Sonnium (#1) and Obstreperous (#6) are entered in the Andy Guest at Colonial Downs this afternoon. That is a shorter field, but they’d be facing a standout in Roja in that race if they elected to run there. This race was drawn after that one, so I do wonder if they were eyeing up how this race was going to come together. Lucy McGee (#8) would be a longshot here or at Ellis, but she has two straight wins in Kentucky and is trending up. She’d definitely have a better chance here, but that also means making the trip from Keeneland. Les Reys (#4) is probably the biggest question mark. She’s the morning line favorite here, but she’s also entered in the Satin and Lace at Presque Isle, which would begin a nice string of lucrative sprint races on the synthetic there and at Woodbine that she could be considered for. She did win the Grade 3 Ontario Fashion Stakes on the Tapeta last fall. The only horse that I’m going to eliminate from racing here is Buttercream Babe, however, the horse I like the best is not on this list. The New York bred, Sweet Brown Sugar (#5) makes a lot of sense to me in this race. She has two strong efforts in her first two tries on the turf in New York. She’s a very consistent runner that has won in state bred stakes company in the past. She’s made 19 career starts and has only been off the board in two of those races. She has been first or second 14 of those 19 times, so she knows how to compete. She has tactical speed and she appears to fit well with whoever shows up to run in this race. Les Reys is the class of this field if she does opt to come to Monmouth. I do wonder if the distance of this race is a touch too short for her. However, I liked her effort last time out when going six furlongs on the lawn in New York. Obstreperous fits better here than at Colonial, especially after coming out of a strong Grade 3 race at this distance at the Spa last month. She was a winner when going five furlongs on this course two back and she typically fires when she’s running at the right level. Lucy McGee is a deeper backup for me, but she’d be one to think about upgrading if there were other defections here. I do like what I’ve seen in her first two tries as a four year old. This does feel like the time where she’d be able to take a decent step forward in the right kind of spot. 

Race 6:

The $3 Late Pick-3 begins with a $10K-$9K claiming race going one mile on the dirt. I don’t trust Confabulation (#1) off the win on the quick turnaround, but assuming that he’s running in this spot, he’s definitely a pace factor. I think that should set the table nicely for Rerally (#2), who is making his return to Monmouth for Miguel Penaloza. He was very sharp for this barn three back, but he was claimed that day. Three weeks later, he caught a sloppy course at Parx and ran poorly, but Penaloza jumped right back in and took him that day for the same $5K tag. He ran well when moving up to a time restricted N1X race there in his last start. He’s moving up in class, but he fits at this level on a course where he has had success in the past. Denying (#3) is looking to rebound after a bit of a regression in his last start. Devon Dougherty is having a decent amount of success first off the claim at this meet this season, but the public hasn’t caught up just yet as there’s been decent value on the runners that this barn has been sending out. He’s been very good lately and figures to be right there again. If you draw a line through the effort two back from Amadeus Music (#6), he’s another runner that has been fairly consistent. I’ll forgive that race as he was being asked to go 1 3/16 miles that day, and it seemed like that was out of his range. He was very sharp three back on a fast track when going a mile and 70 yards at Parx. There are things to like here as well. 

Race 7:

State bred fillies and mares will dash 5 ½ furlongs on the lawn in this optional $15K claiming/N1X allowance race. I’ve been banging the drum for Lidia Rose (#4) all meet long, and while I’ve burned a decent amount of money on her, I do think there are things to like as she is definitely trending up coming into this spot. This is another runner that Rory Huston is sending out and I do think the more races his runners get, the better they are. She’s been on the lead in her last two starts and she fell apart late both times. She’s cutting back to a sprint after trying two turns at this level in her last time out. I don’t need to see her make the lead, as she was very sharp in a stalking role when she scored on debut last fall at the Big M. She’s paired her last two Beyers on the turf and could be due to move forward today. One Fine Wine (#1) is still trying to figure out what she does best. However, she’s coming into this spot in good form. She scored in gate to wire fashion on the dirt with a state bred $150K N3L claiming field last time out. She was very sharp at this level and distance two back, just missing to La Resolana, who was a next out winner. I like seeing Edwin Gonzalez take the mount in this race. On deeper tickets, I liked what I saw from Golden Ring (#9) at this distance and level last summer. She broke last in a 12 horse field and was closing well to be second to Allison Park, who is a nice Jersey bred runner. It’s not easy to go last to first on this course and the fact that she passed so many runners is a positive. She has the foundation and whileI think she’s more likely to be second or third, I think she’s one to think about on some deeper multi-race plays. 

Race 8:

We’ll close things out with a $7,500-$6,500 N3L claiming race going a mile and 70 yards on the main track. Devon Dougherty claimed Duck Duck Goose (#8) out of that level in his last start where he got a little leg weary late and finished third. There isn’t a ton of early competition for him in this race, and I do like the addition of blinkers for the first time. He’s a consistent three year old so an improved effort could be in the cards. Son of a Slew (#3) has been knocking on the door in both of his last two starts in N3L company. He just missed on the turf two back and was right there at this level in his last. The form is there for a barn that has been having a strong meet. On deeper tickets, Bean Machine (#5) is worth considering. Both of his wins came on the turf, but it looks like he’s starting to figure out the dirt game. He wasn’t too far behind Son of a Slew last time out, and now he’ll get a significant rider upgrade to Haskell winner, Jorge Vargas Jr. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 52/195 (26.7%), $295.90 ($1.52 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

12 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet