When you put a million dollars on the line this early in the season, you’re going to get horses to show up, and that is the case with this Grade 3 contest which attracted a full field of 14. This is a strong Derby Prep, but the defection of the morning line favorite, Litmus Test, takes a little shine off this race. Baffert still will be represented with Buetane, and he’ll be up against the winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes, Strategic Risk and a flashy maiden winner, D’Code.
Historically, Mystik Dan and Smarty Jones won this race en route to winning the Kentucky Derby. Essential Quality was a winner here in 2021 before going on to win the Belmont Stakes that year. Last year, we saw Speed King pull off the upset over eventual Arkansas Derby winner, Sandman and eventual Louisiana Derby winner, Tiztastic.
Oaklawn Park, Race 11: The Grade 3 Southwest Stakes (Post Time: 4:40 PM CST)
42 Total Derby points (20-10-6-4-2)
1 – Reclamation: He’s one of four horses in this field that is coming off a maiden victory on this course. He faced D’Code when making his first career start in December and that colt was 13 lengths better than him on that day. He came back in another six furlong maiden race where Cristian Torres put him on the lead and he was able to draw clear at the top of the stretch. He was on Lasix that afternoon. While I understand the temptation to take a big swing in a pot like this, especially with the large purse, I think this is one that would have been better served going into a N1X allowance spot.
2 – D’code: This son of Speightstown has one start and one dominating victory for Ray Ashford Jr. He was working up a storm over this course and the word was out as he was bet down from 9-2 to 9-5 on debut. Speightstown was the winner of the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Sprint and he’s been one of the premier sires in North America over the last several years and he has had horses that have won Grade 1 races on dirt at turf at 10 furlongs (Force the Pass, Golden Ticket, Haynesfield). This colt is the first foal from a mare that never raced beyond 6 ½ furlongs, despite having a pedigree that suggests that she could have had success at longer distances. There were also some gaps in her running lines that might have prevented her from trying longer distance races. Jumping up to Grade 3 company while trying two turns is a huge class test. Ashford has been having him work out at five and six furlongs in preparation for this start. Luis Saez is named to ride, but he’s also named to ride several horses at Gulfstream, so we’ll see where he ends up.
3 – Buetane: Bob Baffert campaigns this son of Tiz the Law who cost his connections $1,150,000 at the OBS Sale in April of last year. He was a winner at first asking at Del Mar, but instead of taking on some of his stablemates in the Del Mar Futurity, Baffert shipped him across the country to the Spa, where he finished a distant second to the eventual two year old champion, Ted Noffey. He came back to run second in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes three weeks ago, losing to Mark Glatt’s Runhappy colt, So Happy. That was a speedy race at seven furlongs and now he’s going to be tested at two turns. The dam was sired by Forestry and she never won a race beyond five furlongs. He’ll get his stamina from his sire, Tiz the Law, but none of the dam’s five runners that tried routes won at first asking when going a mile or longer. He was cross-entered in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream, but Baffert opted not to ship to Florida. With the defection of his stablemate, he’ll be the lone shipper coming here from California. Despite the stamina influences from his sire, I do wonder if there are going to be distance limitations moving forward.
4 – Rancho Santa Fe: The Top-5 finishers from the Smarty Jones Stakes are all back in this race, and this Tapit colt had the misfortune of finishing 5th that afternoon. He cleared the N1X condition two starts ago, so even though it looks like he might not belong at this level, there aren’t a wealth of non-stakes and non-claiming races available for three year olds eligible for the N2X condition that are not stakes races. There lies the dilemma for Cox with this one, who had some trouble early on, while being floated out wide on the first turn. That was his first start in nearly three months, but the overall fact that Cox tried him in allowance company first suggested to me that this colt was not one of the top horses in his stable. Flavien Prat comes in to replace Florent Geroux in the irons, so that move could keep his price well below fair market value. I’ll be looking in other directions.
5 – Litmus Test: SCRATCHED
6 – Circle Tap He’s another recent graduate from an Oaklawn maiden allowance race last month. He scored in a ten horse field at this distance when making his 5th career start. Visually, his effort was strong, overcoming some traffic issues while he was a bit rank, and then drawing off to win with ease. He is a candidate to move forward off that race, however, the final time was slow, and none of his prior sprint races suggest that he has a high enough ceiling to compete at this level.
7 – Liberty National Ken McPeek sends out this Maxfield colt who was the runner-up in the Gun Runner Stakes at the Fair Grounds in his last start. I thought that effort was fairly solid since the pace scenario was not in his favor for that race. He saved some ground and came with a strong rally up the rail, coming up a bit short. The horses from the Gun Runner that ran back in the Lecomte, did not run particularly well that day. Chip Honcho, who held off this colt, faded to 4th two weeks ago in New Orleans. While I like the thought of skipping that race in favor of this spot, this field is deep. He’s another colt that is eligible to improve based off his last few starts, but it’s a decent ask for him to try to step up to beat the main contenders in this race. He’s been working well in the mornings in New Orleans, so he could be trending up. I prefer him underneath in this spot.
8 – Spirit of Royal : This son of Global Campaign made his 6th start at the beginning of the month and scored when going two turns for the first time in a maiden special weight contest on this oval. Much like the case was with Circle Tap, his win was a fine effort where he had to overcome some mild trouble in the early stages. He did split horses at the top of the stretch, and while it took him a little bit of time to switch leads, he did do so, accelerating late to win. He’s had six races under his belt and has never recorded a Beyer Speed Figure greater than 66. Seeing as how he earned a 64 on debut, he hasn’t shown much growth either.
9 – Strategic Risk: The winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes comes back to try to take down another trophy at Oaklawn. He was very sharp on debut, but looked a bit ordinary in his next three starts in stakes company. He was never a factor in the Sanford or the With Anticipation in New York. He came back to Florida for the Florida Stallion Series races at Gulfstream. He was a beaten third in the Affirmed Division, but he showed new life when trying two turns for the first time in the In Reality Division, crushing that field by nine lengths. Javier Castellano rode him for the first time and he followed him to Hot Springs where he was aboard in the Smarty Jones. He stalked a slow pace in that race before assuming command at the top of the stretch. He had a perfect trip in that race, but was still much the best. He’s sired by Noble Bird, who was sired by 2004 Belmont winner, Birdstone. The dam was sired by 2005 Belmont winner, Afleet Alex and she was out of a mare foaled by the 1991 Belmont winner, A.P. Indy. There’s a ton of stamina influence in his pedigree, so I can see him continuing to improve as the races get longer. Mark Casse had a monster start to the meet, winning with 11 of 23 starters and having another 8 of those runners finish in the money. This feels like a race where he will improve, despite coming off a top notch effort. I think the defection of Litmus Test will allow him to sit a better stalking trip. He’s a win candidate here.
10 – Bricklin: This son of Nyquist made three starts as a two year old, breaking his maiden in his second start at Horseshoe Indy back in October. He tried graded stakes company, losing to Incredibolt in the Street Sense Stakes 20 days later. Rodolphe Brisset shipped him to Oaklawn and that moe paid dividends as he was an impressive allowance winner at the beginning of the month. He drew the rail for that race and was able to race with Lasix, an option that won’t be on the table today. It’s a lot easier to post a big speed figure when you have everything your own way, and by him breaking from the 10 hole here, it’s hard to envision that scenario playing out again. Cristian Torres, who is the leading rider here, opts to ride Silent Tactic, so Jaime Torres will take over. I prefer others in this spot.
11 – Silent Tactic: He was my longshot pick to win the Smarty Jones when trying the dirt for the first time four weeks ago. He ran well to be second that day when the pace scenario wasn’t really working in his favor. He was caught behind horses as they bunched up down the backstretch, and he advanced through traffic, while running in between horses. He rallied to get into second, but he wasn’t going to beat his stablemate that day. He’ll get another shot today in a race that will have more horses and should have a sharper pace. He might still be a notch below the best horses in this race, but I still see him as a horse that has some upside. He’s another runner that should continue to improve as the races get longer as he’s sired by Tacitus out of a Gun Runner mare. While I think his best chance in this race is underneath, he might be able to benefit if they go too fast up front in the early stages of this race.
12 – Baytown Dreamer: He was able to parlay a decent trip into a third place finish at huge odds in the Smarty Jones Stakes here last time out. That was his first try at two turns on the dirt and after nine starts, he might have stumbled upon what he’s going to do best. He picked up another nice paycheck when hitting the board in that race, banking another $23K. Orlando Bocachica is back to ride him in this race where he’s going to be long odds once again. Post 12 isn’t going to help his cause. I think he’s still in too deep in this race.
13 – Soldier N Diplomat: Jose Ortiz comes to town for the first time this season to ride this son of Army Mule for Steve Asmussen. He got a little leg weary late to finish 3rd behind Further Ado and Universe in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last time out. Universe finished second to last in the Smarty Jones Stakes in his next start, and both Very Connected and Spice Runner, who finished behind him in that race, came back to finish off the board in the Gun Runner and the Remington Springboard Mile, respectively. None of those outcomes are ringing endorsements for that race. He’s drawn a tricky post for this race and Ortiz is likely going to have to try to send hard early on. I guess the best case scenario would be for him to be able to clear over from his high draw and get to the rail, while trying to orchestrate getting some type of breather in the second quarter. His connections paid a lot of money for him 10 months ago, so the expectations are clearly high. However, when looking at his pedigree, I think he’s going to be more effective in one turn races.
14 – Sleepingonfreedom:The 5th horse in this field to exit the Smarty Jones Stakes seemingly has taken the worst of the post draw for this race. McPeek took a shot with him in that race after scoring two straight wins, one of which came in a maiden auction race and the other which came in starter allowance company. He managed to finish 4th that day, but was about nine lengths behind the winner. It’s hard to envision a world where he can make up that ground on Strategic Risk, while also breaking from this post.
The verdict: 9-11-7
I think Mark Casse’s duo that ran in the Smarty Jones Stakes here four weeks ago, has a shot to be right there at the end again today. Strategic Risk (#9) had a perfect trip, but was still very good when easily winning the Smarty Jones Stakes. He stalked a longshot leader who tried to slow the pace down to a walk. When the real running began, he gradually inched clear of the front-runner and then pulled clear decisively. He has two starts at two turns on the dirt, both of which came in stakes company. He won those two races by a combined total of 13+ lengths, so clearly routing on the dirt is what he’s going to do best. This will be another class test for him though, but the defection of the big horse is going to make his life a lot easier
The bigger price of his two runners will be Silent Tactic (#11) and he’s the second choice in this race. I think he ran well despite being pace compromised in his last start. He showed ability to compete at a high level on the Tapeta and he proved that he’s capable on a traditional dirt course as well. He’s likely going to be farther off the pace in this race, and that may work to his advantage as there could be several runners going the wrong direction when they turn for home.
I’ll also use Liberty National (#7) as a backup here. He’ll be more focused underneath on my tickets, but I do think his last effort was better than it looks on paper. The horses coming out of that race have yet to impress, so that tells me that this is going to be a definite class test. He’;s showing signs of improving in the morning and he could be sitting on a better effort today.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
