This will be the last of three Grade 1 races for two year olds that are designed to be a prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that will be offered across the country today. These races also offer important points toward entry into next year’s Kentucky Derby. In the Mid-80’s this race had a good run, giving us two of the first three Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners, Chief’s Crown in 1984 and Capote in 1986. Sandwiched in between those years, we had Snow Chief win in 1985, who would later go on to win the Preakness Stakes the following year. While some nice horses came out of this race over the next 20-30 years, the next Triple Crown race winner that came with a trophy from this race was the 2010 Preakness winner, Lookin’ at Lucky. American Pharoah, who became the race’s namesake, started to change the fate of the race in 2014. While he opted to bypass the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that year after winning this race (known as the Frontrunner then), he went on to win the Triple Crown and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Since then, three runners, Nyquist, Corniche, and Citizen Bull went on to win both this race and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, with Nyquist also scoring in the 2016 Derby.
There are six runners entered today and very much like last year, four of the six runners are trained by Bob Baffert. Unlike last year, the other two runners will be significant longshots that will need a lot of things to go their way to score. Hughes and Imperial Honor will lead the charge as Baffert aims for his 14th winner in this race. Post time for this Grade 1 contest is scheduled for 7:04 (EDT)/4:04 (PDT).
Santa Anita, Saturday, Race 7: The Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes Presented by DK Horse
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Dang Son (12-1 ML): Calumet Farm owns this Good Magic colt that was bred by Claiborne Farm and trained by Doug O’Neill. O’Neill will also send out a two year old (Phone Booth) at Keeneland in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity. This colt broke his maiden in a slow race on the turf at Del Mar back in August. He tried facing Hughes in the Del Mar Futurity last month and while he earned a check and a Grade 1 placing by finishing third that afternoon, he was 10 lengths behind the winner, who he’ll have to deal with again today. Phone Booth was second that day and he’s the one headed across the country to try his luck in Kentucky. I do believe this one will improve at two turns, however, it’s hard to imagine him making up that kind of ground on the favorite, while also facing a tougher group.
2 – Hughes (4-5 ML): The heavy favorite in this race has no blemishes and has never been tested. He was an easy maiden winner at Los Alamitos in June when going five furlongs. He came back in the Best Pal at Del Mar where he was clearly better than his four rivals. A month later, he tasted Grade 1 victory for the first time when easily dispatching four rivals in the Del Mar Futurity at seven furlongs. Baffert has brought him along gradually and will give him the two turn test for the first time today. His Beyer figures are steady, but unremarkable. However, the fact that he’s never really been close to his rivals could also be influencing those numbers. You could consider that Phone Booth, who was a distant second to him in his last two starts, will run in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland about 90 minutes before this race. A strong effort from him on the road as a longshot would be flattering to this colt. He’s going to get the run of the race, because his stablemates aren’t going to engage in a speed duel with him. Net Par has some early speed, but I wouldn’t count on him being able to keep pace with Hughes unless Espinoza is treating him like a quarterhorse. There could be some distance limitations with his pedigree as the races get longer, but 1 1/16 miles should be well within his range. The question that remains is how he’ll respond when he’s tested when coming off the second turn for the first time. He’s a worthy favorite, but I do think his stablemates are interesting and could offer some more value in this race.
3 – Net Par (12-1 ML): Reddam Racing will send out this California bred son of Pavel for his first foray into open company. He has never finished off the board, winning twice in four career starts, all of which came against fellow California breds. He won the Graduation Stakes at Del Mar in August and was recently second in the Im Smokin Stakes at six furlongs there last month. He’ll return to Arcadia for the first time since his debut effort back in June. His speed figures haven’t really progressed in his four starts and now he’s facing much tougher opposition. I think he’s in over his head in this spot.
4 – Imperial Honor (9-5 ML): This is a horse that clearly looked the part when he was entered in the OBS Sale in April of this year, as he fetched a whopping $725K. When you consider that this colt was sired by Honor A.P., whose stud fee sits at a modest $7,500 and he’s the first foal to race from a dam that never competed, that price tag is massive. He absolutely looked the part on the track when Baffert had him debut in a 5 ½ furlong race on the dirt at Del Mar at the end of their summer meet. Perhaps the jump to two turns is a big ask, especially at this level, however, there aren’t a ton of other options in October, if the goal becomes the Breeders’ Cup. When the connections shell out that kind of money, it’s hard not to aim for the Breeders’ Cup. Honor A.P. beat the 2020 Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner, Authentic, in the Santa Anita Derby during that strange COVID season. He came back to be second in the Shared Belief, which served as a prep for the Labor Day Weekend Derby that year. He blew the break on a day where Authentic controlled the tempo and went gate to wire. He moved well late to get into 4th in what was his last race. This will be his 4th crop of runners on the track. Margie’s Intention was his first graded stakes winner, scoring in the 2025 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. Counting Stars has been his best runner to date as she notched Grade 1 victories this year in the Acorn and the CCA Oaks along with a Grade 2 victory in the Fantasy Stakes. All four of these winners came at two turns on the dirt and the dam sire is Nyquist so there’s reason to believe that this one will be quite comfortable at two turns on the dirt. He’s the pick in this race for me.
5 – Emancipate (10-1 ML): The third member of the Baffert quartet has his fingerprints all over him. His dam was the Grade 1 winner Marley’s Freedom, who he trained. While the sire, Uncle Mo was trained by Todd Pletcher, Baffert trained his grand sire, Indian Charlie. This one put up a solid figure in his debut where he was buried along the rail. He was forced to check near the half mile pole, and was never really able to recover. He did advance, showing that he has some mental toughness. He came back two weeks later to score in a four horse field, in what amounted to nothing more than a paid public workout. The speed figure was light, but he was never really asked and never really tested in that race. He comes back in a two turn spot while facing winners for the first time. He hasn’t been as sharp in the morning as some of Baffert’s other runners, but he only worked once since that second race where he came back fairly quick. The dam did her best work at one turn and her first foal, Hope Road, was the same way. The pairing with Uncle Mo could certainly be a stamina boost here. I like the pedigree, but I don’t know if he has that big of a move forward to score.
6 – Domus (8-1 ML): The final Baffert runner is the most puzzling of his four. He was excellent when winning on debut, putting up an effort that was very similar to the debut win for Imperial Honor. That win was good enough for him to be entered against his stablemate in the Del Mar Futurity. He broke well in that race and was perched outside in the three path as Hughes came through between rivals to run early with a longshot. He never looked like he was traveling comfortably though, and he started falling back as the tempo picked up. He was well-beaten in that spot, finishing 4th, finishing six lengths behind Dang Son. The pedigree tells me that he should be able to get the distance with relative ease, but his dam was also known for running bad races when the competition got tough. Perhaps the change in scenery will be the ticket, but he’s drawn wide and will likely also have to change tactics here as I’m sure Kimura isn’t going to rocket out and try to duel with Hughes. Unless there’s an excuse for his last race that I’m not finding, he’s tough for me to play here.
The verdict: 4-5-2
Bob Baffert continues to dominate the entry box in these California Derby Points Races and while I’m always looking to try to get some value by beating him, I feel like this race will be a matter of which one of his horses will win. I do think the heavy favorite, Hughes (#2) is a little vulnerable in this race. I’m very interested in seeing the encore performance from Imperial Honor (#4) in this race. He was exceptional when winning on debut at the end of the Del Mar meet last month. His sire’s (Honor A.P.) stock is rising after the repeated success of Counting Stars this season. This colt fetched nearly 100X Honor A.P.’s stud fee at auction earlier this year.
The longest price of the Baffert runners is Emancipate (#5), who might be worth thinking about in this race. He had trouble in his debut, but still ran on to be 4th in a 5 ½ furlong dash. He beat a modest field last out when running a very light figure in what amounted to be nothing more than a paid public workout. The pedigree is solid, so there’s reason to bel;ieve he can move forward in this race.
Hughes is clearly the one to beat. He’s undefeated and untested at this stage in his career. He’s also apt to get the run of the race with his three stablemates posted outside of him. The one thing I’ve talked about at length in these write-ups is the ability for Baffert to control some of the factors in the race by sending out over 50% of the field. His horses aren’t going to engage in a speed duel and their riders aren’t going to take risky chances at the expense of a stablemate. When there’s a quality opponent, the Baffert runners tend to try to team against that one to make them uncomfortable. While I’m not sure they’ll really need to gang up on the two longshots in this field, I do think this one will have every chance to wire this group. He’ll likely be lower than his 4-5 price though and he’s yet to show how he’ll respond when he’s looked in the eye.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 153rd Kentucky Derby on May 1st, 2027. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
