While the last horse to win this race and win the Kentucky Derby was Swale all the way back in 1984, winners of this race have won four of the last ten runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Ted Noffey last year, Forte in 2022, Essential Quality in 2020, and Classic Empire in 2016 all won here before solidifying their championship status in the Breeders’s Cup. Ken McPeek has a very nice looking maiden winner, Coach Pope, that will likely be the favorite in this year’s running. Post time for this Grade 1 contest is scheduled for 5:16 (EDT).
Keeneland, Saturday, Race 9: The Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Coach Pope (4-5 ML): Ken McPeek might be best known for getting the most out of horses that might not have the flashiest pedigrees. However, he’s been given the opportunity to train this son of Tapit who cost $350K at auction last fall and he’s off to a great start. He debuted a very salty maiden race on the Whitney undercard, which always seems to draw future stars. Gaudreau won that race and this colt finished ahead of U.S.S. Valor and Hemingway. All three of these runner-ups came back to score in monster efforts. U.S.S. Valor won at Saratoga by over 13 lengths. Hemingway switched to the turf and crushed a maiden field at Kentucky Downs by over 8 lengths. This colt went to Churchill and dominated a one turn mile race by over 12 lengths. Gaudreau and U.S.S. Valor will square off earlier in the day in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont, while Hemingway has a date on Sunday right here in the Grade 2 Castle and Key Bourbon Stakes. A strong effort from either of the colts in New York would certainly flatter him moving forward in his first test at two turns. He was 2-5 in his last race, so he clearly was supposed to win, however, style points should count for something. Jose Ortiz retains the mount. He is the one to beat.
2 – Q B Rocket (2-1 ML): Spendthrift Farm and Frank Fletcher teamed up to buy this son of Gun Runner for $1.9 million at the Keeneland September Sale last fall. They opted to send this colt to Brad Cox who got him to the track for the first time in the middle of August at Saratoga. He led just about all of the way in that six furlong maiden allowance race where he was allowed to ease up late. Cox has his horses prepared to debut, but they are typically not fully cranked, so I do think it’s fair to expect this pricy colt to improve in this spot. The 2nd and 4th place finishers from that race, Card Man and Vukota, were handy maiden special weight winners at Belmont and Churchill respectively, last month. He appears to be the major threat to the top pick here.
3 – Phone Booth (12-1 ML): Reddam Racing has a runner in the American Pharoah over at Santa Anita, the best two year old that he currently has in his barn is racing here at Keeneland. Reddam and O’Neill have their fingerprints all over this California bred colt. They campaigned Pavel (the sire), whose greatest victory came in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster in 2018. They also campaigned the dam, whose first foal was Pavlovian, who won the Sunland Park Derby this winter and was a close second in the Louisiana Derby in March. This colt is following a similar pattern to his full brother as he won in a five furlong state bred maiden allowance race before trying open company in the Best Pal. Instead of going back to Cal bred company at the end of the Del Mar meet, O’Neill took another swing against Hughes in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. In both races, he was no match for the winner, but he was best of the rest, earning second place finishes in both graded stakes races. It took Pavlovian took a few starts to figure out two turn racing, but he was a different horse once he went to the front in route races like this. I don’t see him outsprinting anyone to make the lead in this race, but he does like to hang around, and that may be enough to earn him another Grade 1 placing.
4 – Title Worthy (20-1 ML): Like Doug O”Neill, Dallas Stewart has never been afraid to take a swing with a big longshot in a graded stakes race and that’s going to be the case with this two-time winning son of Title Ready. Title Ready was a hard trying horse that was owned and bred by Charles Fipke (who was also the breeder of this colt) and trained by Stewart. His biggest win came in the Grade 3 Louisiana Handicap at the Fair Grounds. He has had four horses from his freshman crop to make it to the track, with one other horse getting a win (Titan Ready, who also finished second in a pair of stakes races). This colt is undefeated, scoring twice in Kentucky on sloppy tracks. He broke his maiden in a maiden auction race at Ellis and then moved forward on the slop again to score in a N2L allowance race at Churchill last month. His Tomlinson Figures are moderate, so there’s a chance that he’ll be a better horse on a fast track. I think he’ll try to go with the big boys early on, but I’m not seeing signals that he’s going to run a monster race here.
5 – Jaded (15-1 ML): Mark Casse sends out this maiden winning son of Olympiad to face winners for the first time. He rallied from well off the pace to score in a 6 ½ maiden special weight race on the turf at Kentucky Downs in his only start. I liked his effort that day as he showed a lot of temerity for a first time starter by rallying up the rail that day. Horses that fare well on the turf at Kentucky Downs are certainly playable in dirt races here at Keeneland, so I don’t mind the surface switch. His sire was a very nice dirt horse that Bill Mott campaigned. He had the misfortune of running in the Breeders’ Cup Classic the same year that Flightline did. He was very good that day, but nowhere near as good as the winner. His runners from his freshman crop have ten wins, and those wins are split evenly with five coming on the turf and five coming on the dirt. Olympiad was sired by Speightstown and he always looked like a horse that could succeed on the grass, but he was too good on the dirt to give that a thought. The dam only started one time in her career, but she’s been a useful producer. Her best horse was Jaywalk, who won the Grade 1 Frizette and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in 2018. Irad Ortiz taking the mount won’t hurt his chances. He’s the longshot with the most upside in this race in my eyes.
6 – American History (4-1 ML): Todd Pletcher is looking to tie the late D. Wayne Lukas for the most number of wins in this race with six. He has won five total and three of the last four runnings with Ted Noffey, Locked, and Forte. His lone chance this year will come with this son of Constitution that was an impressive debut winner in a 6 ½ furlong dirt sprint race at Saratoga on Alabama Day. Despite selling for $825K at the Keeneland September Sale in 2025, he was ignored by the betting public in that race, going off at nearly 10-1. He beat the highly touted Powerline (sired by Flightline) and Art Museum, who is a well regarded runner for Chad Brown. The dam’s other two runners have done their best work on the turf and the synthetic, but she was a winner on both dirt and turf in her career. Constitution has become one of the best sires in the nation and as a son of Tapit, he can certainly provide stamina from his side of the family. He’s not without a chance in this race, but I prefer others.
The verdict: 1-2-5
I’m not going to try to beat the favorite in this race. I think Coach Hope (#1) is a standout for Ken McPeek, who has three wins in this race in his training career himself. Obviously a strong effort from either Gaudreau or U.S.S. Valor in the Champagne earlier in the day would be flattering to this colt. I think he has a tactical edge and I believe that he’ll ace this first true test.
Q B Rocket (#2) certainly looked the part in his debut where they were able to gear him down late. Like Coach Hope, the horses that came out of his maiden race have come back to win impressively. He’s sired by Gun Runner, who is one of the best in the game and his horses continue to improve with added distance and experience.
The longshot that feels like he has the best chance to upset the apple cart is Jaded (#5), for Mark Casse. He’s likely to be overlooked because he won his debut on the turf at Kentucky Downs, but I do believe that this son of Olympiad has a serious future on the dirt. His half sister, Jaywalk, was a winner of the Grade 1 Frizzette during this weekend back in 2018 en route to scoring in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at this same distance.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 153rd Kentucky Derby on May 1st, 2027. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
