Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-White Mountain (Race 1)
Race #1: Selections: 2-4-5
2-White Mountain finished an OK fourth at this level off the seven-month freshening and is eligible to move forward off that effort on the stretch-out, second off the bench. The son of Tapit’s best figures has come over a route of ground. Class dropping 4-Spun Not Stirred makes his third start of the form cycle today for conditioner Peter Eurton, exiting an even third-place effort on Jan. 23. The 4-year-old gelding has run some of the swiftest, most recent main track Beyers at today’s one-mile trip and will get plenty of support in the Friday afternoon opener. 5-Last Call Paul is 1-for-31 but has finished second and third a combined 16 times for trainer Steve Knapp and is projected to be on or close to the front again this afternoon. The 5-year-old gelding can grab a share of the vertical exotics again today, but he is difficult to back on the win end.
Race #2: Selections: 5-3-4
The lightly raced 5-Manhattan Beauty moves back to turf, making her second try off the layoff for Baltas. This barn has solid stats with MDSW to MDCLM dropdowns, and this gal is likely to move forward with the class relief. She was a troubled trip seventh in her lone turf try at Saratoga last summer. 3-Sensational Dream shortens back up off the mini-freshening for Kitchingman, and this filly’s two best grass finishes have come sprinting. She fired back-to-back bullet drills over at San Luis Rey in preparation for this. The 9-start maiden 4-Kitty Marren returns from an eight-month layoff for McCarthy and drops in for a first-time tag. The 4-year-old daughter of Munnings has trained steadily for today’s return, but this lucrative barn and pilot are a stale 0-for-18 with grass returnees off >180 days.
Race #3: Selections: 3-2-6
Blinkers off 3-Perfect Life rallied for the place spot when dropped to this level on Jan. 10 and deserves another chance to make amends at this reduced level for trainer Ruben Gomez. 2-Union Heiress is 1-for-20 but gets significant class relief moving back to dirt. The 5-year-old mare was a sharp 6 ½-length maiden winner at Del Mar when last running over the main track. 6-Brandon’s Girl flashed speed and tired when returning off a six-month layoff when fading to sixth behind the top choice, but can move forward today as the likely pacesetter in this short field.
Race #4: Selections: 1-4-3
The top three geldings are hard to separate, and I’d use all three for multi-race exotic purposes. 1-Lorenzo Bernini has good speed from the rail for the red-hot Papaprodromou barn and makes his second try off the bench. The gelded son of Authentic could prove tough to reel in, stretching out an additional eighth of a mile. The late-closing 4-Rostovsky has had many chances with close-up grass route finishes, but drops back in for a tag for Glatt and sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (73). 3-Both Sides of Bad finished an even third on Jan. 8 when getting the best of Lorenzo Bernini off the mini-freshening, exiting a career-best grass Beyer for Mullins. He switches to jockey Antonio Fresu this afternoon, and this jockey-trainer combo is a solid 4 for 16 (25%/$2.33 ROI) overall with turf runners.
Race #5: Selections: 11-7-1
A full field of $10k claiming fillies and mares, sprinting 5 ½ furlongs over the main track, closes out a tricky last leg of the pick five. 11-Outrageous makes her third start of the form cycle today, with an improving Beyer pattern, and is 6-for-19 lifetime. She was a decisive 4 ¼-length winner two back at Los Al over a pair of next-out winners from this outside post. Second off the claim 7-Rousing Jewel was a beaten favorite fourth when facing a pair of today’s returning rivals on Jan. 24 (including the top choice) and should fall into a favorable upfront-pressing stalking trip today, moving further outside. The 8-year-old veteran mare 1-A Real Jewel moves back to the main track this afternoon, dropping in for a career-low $10k claiming tag. Her effort at Los Al two-back on Dec. 5 was solid, and a pair of runners returned to win from that event.
Race #6: Selections: 1-6-5
1-Latitude (by Candy Ride) stretches out for his grass debut this afternoon for trainer John Sadler, and this barn is a solid 6 for 25 (24%) with a $2.75 ROI with dirt-to-turf sprint-to-route runners the past five years. Jockey Florent Geroux takes the call and figures to give this colt a favorable upfront-pressing journey. The strong (92) dirt Beyer he earned on debut last September indicates he has talent. The speedy 6-Legal Heir has led and tired in his last three turf route tries for conditioner Vann Belvoir and is a logical fit again with regular pilot Kimura aboard. The other Sadler 4-year-old is 5-Midway Lane, who steps back up in class after a near-miss against $50k maiden claimers on Jan. 8. The (77) grass Beyer he earned that afternoon matches up well here, and he still offers plenty of upside, making only his third lifetime start.
Race #7: Selections: 7-8-1
7-Mawu adds Lasix today after likely bleeding in the Jan. 5 Santa Ynez S. when eased and walked off the course, but can rebound today for Team Baffert on the class drop. The $500k daughter of Blame has worked three times since that subpar performance and switches to barn’s go-to pilot, Juan Hernandez. Blinkers off 8-Artisma drops out of the G1 La Brea after flashing speed and tiring to finish eighth of ten for conditioner Richard Baltas. The 4-year-old filly finished second in three consecutive races prior to the Grade 1 flop and is likely to bounce back today in this easier spot. 1-Delightfull Hart returns off an extended layoff, dating back to June 2024, but showed promise for his connections in main track sprint tries (4-2-0-1) before hitting the sidelines. The 6-year-old mare should fire fresh.
Race #8: Selections: 10-2-1-8
10-Flash of Lighting is stuck on the AE’s and needs to draw in, but finished a sharp closing troubled trip third in his first try stretching out on Jan. 15. The colt’s turf Beyers have increased with each subsequent try for trainer Richard Baltas, and another progressive forward move makes him a big late threat this afternoon. 2-Almost There was overmatched in the Cal Cup Derby on Jan. 17 but moves back to the turf this afternoon, where he showed solid runs in his first two grass sprint efforts last summer and fall. 1-Dr. Filkins goes two sprints to a route in career try number three for conditioner Sean McCarthy and is eligible to improve with the additional real estate. Like the top choice, he’s by Halladay, a G1 winner routing on turf. 8-John Metcalfe is another also-ran exiting the aforementioned Cal Cup Derby that is back on turf today. He finished a sharp second in his lone grass try back in mid-October, going this one mile over the local course. Lasix on.
