Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Big Beauty (Race 7)
Race #1: 2-Horace Man attracted decent tote support in DMR debut finishing an even fourth for D’Amato. The 2-year-old colt adds blinkers today and barn is a solid 9 for 31 (29%) with a $3.95 ROI with second time starters routing on grass at Santa Anita. 4-Heartbreak Kid showed significant improvement stretching out and moving to grass in 2nd career start for Team O’Neill and is the one to beat off that sharp try. The colt is by multiple G2 winner Good Samaritan who is 3 for 11 (27%) with his turf route offspring. 5-Glendale adds blinkers today and flashed good speed at 54/1 in same August 21 event that several of these same colts exit out of. A wire-to-wire threat at much shorter odds today.
Race #2: 2-All Eyes West appears to be the lone frontrunner in a paceless affair and makes 2nd start off the 10-month layoff for trainer Mark Glatt. This barn is off to a fast start this Autumn meet with a pair of winners and three runner-up finishes opening weekend. Glatt also clicks over 30% the past couple years with 2nd off the claim runners. 4-Perfect Cut goes route to sprint off the claim and effort two-back was a crisp win at DMR going a mile. Beaten favorite 1-Established was a popular commodity at the claiming box this past summer and now makes initial start for trainer Tim Yakteen. The 5-year-old gelding likes this course and comes off solid runner-up finish and (81) Beyer.
Race #3: 2-Flame McGoon owns the field’s best last-out turf Beyer; goes 2nd time blinkers; and ran on well to grab the show spot when making first grass start against a handful of the same runners she faces again today. In a race that’s projected to be run rather swiftly early on (according to TimeformUS), those same closing tactics should be beneficiary again here. 6-Cause She’s a Lady is unproven on turf but broke Maiden here over the main track here last January and makes 3rd start off the bench today for trainer Doug O’Neill. The filly shows two strong 4-furlong drills leading up to this and both efforts at DMR this summer were solid. 1-Twentyseventrouts is lightly raced but has been plagued by layoff lines for trainer Mike Puype. She looked like a short horse in most recent DMR return August 28 when trying turf for the first time. The 5-year-old mare made a strong wide bid before flattening out. This gal should be much tighter in second start back and Hernandez sticks.
Race #4: The speedy 2-Ardis has won 2 of her last 3 on the front end including Maiden breaking score over this oval two-back. 1-Wild Arch has run par or better for this class level in 3 of her last 4 starts and is the one to beat off last Los Al runner-up finish. 3-Bowl of Cherries is wheeled back off 6 days rest and was a much-improved 2nd switching back to dirt last Saturday.
Race #5: 2-Liberty Forever removes the blinkers today and moves back to turf for trainer Peter Miller. This 3-year-old gelding was a strong wire-to-wire Maiden winner going 5 furlongs on grass two-back. He’s unproven going this far, however. After several runner-up finishes 7-Oubabe finally broke through in career start number 9 in last DMR start for Sadler going this trip. The colt finished second 5 times over this grass course prior to Maiden victory. He’s also worked five times since last win and looks super fit for first attempt against winners. 6-Mobou co-tops the field’s best last out turf Beyer (78) and finished directly behind next-out winner Kings River Knight who came back to Beyer an (83) up at Golden Gate.
Race #6: 4-Grenada Flavor overcame a slow start and wide trip to finish 3rd in most recent start at Los Al and now makes 3rd start off the bench today for trainer Brian Koriner. 6-Westphal has improved on the Beyer scale with each subsequent start since initial outing back in May and comes off a career best figure (73) at Los Al September 24. The gelding finally gets off the rail today after three consecutive inside draws and was a Maiden winner when last seen breaking from outside slot. 5-Economical stretches out today for trainer Sean McCarthy off the re-claim and could find himself alone on the lead this afternoon.
Race #7: 5-Big Beauty goes dirt to turf and makes 2nd start off the bench today for trainer John Sadler. This 4-year-old filly should find this downhill course to her liking, and she’s reunited with Hernandez who was aboard for a pair of runner-up finishes. 6-Essential Business is lightly raced and on the improve for Miller. This filly’s recent running lines indicate she’ll relish the stretch out from 5 to 6 ½ furlongs. 8-Big Summer broke her Maiden over the downhill course last October and comes off a strong runner-up finish at DMR going 5 furlongs where she earned a field’s best last out (85) turf Beyer.
Race #8: Recent Maiden winner 4-Leyas Candy has trained extremely well for first crack against winners including a “best of 48” 5-furlongs in :58.3 on September 24. A strong wire-wire threat again today. 5-Prayer of Jabez defeated next-out winner I Know Cash Flow (also entered here) August 25 and makes first start off the claim for barn that’s 0 for 7 at SA with new acquisitions. 2-Midnight Special gets some class relief today and goes 2nd off the claim for trainer Steve Miyadi who is 4 for 12 (33%) with this claiming angle sprinting on dirt at Santa Anita.
Race #9: 4-Fort Moultrie finished second in washed off turf event September 9 and returns to that surface today for new barn off $40,000 claim. This Midwest invader has run well in both Southern California starts on both dirt and turf. He picks up top grass pilot this afternoon. Runaway dirt winner 3-Americaredwhiteblu is unproven on turf and sire American Pharoah is an average 12% with his grass route prodigy. Having said that he comes into the Friday nightcap in top form for hot barn. Recent Maiden winner 1-Stotland makes 2nd start off the mini-freshening this afternoon and is a multiple winner over this track’s turf course and today’s distance for Hess.