Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Eastern Ocean (Race 4)
Race #1: 1-R Heisman draws the rail for this 4 ½-furlong Maiden Special Weight Friday opening dirt dash off a sharp worktab for trainer Luis Mendez. This jockey-trainer combo is 4 for 19 (21%) with a positive ROI with debut runners in the past two years. This juvenile colt could be long gone with an alert break despite the 1 for 25 sire record of Far From Above with his debuting prodigy. 6-How About Pavel is by grade 1 winner Pavel, who is a solid 3 for 13 (23%) with first-time starters. She’s a filly meeting colts for Team O’Neil and Reddam Racing with some decent-looking morning works. Jockey Mario Gutierrez has had good success riding debut runners for these connections. 2-Mr. Machupicchu (by Conquest Fahrenheit) debuts for conditioner Jeff Bonde, who is 3 for 11 (27%) the past two years with first-time starters at Santa Anita.
Selections: 1-6-2
Race #2: 6-Bit’s Tiger Magic was a runaway seven-length Maiden winner when moved to the turf in start number two for trainer Peter Miller and looks primed for the repeat stepping up in class this afternoon. This daughter of Smiling Tiger is nicely drawn outside and should be tough to reel in as the field’s likely pacesetter. 2-Headed for Om moves back to the straight course this afternoon after finishing a good third over the downhill layout on April 7 when facing winners for the first time. This filly sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer and should be rallying late. 5-Clubhouse Bride moves back to the turf and drops in class exiting a third-place effort in the Evening Jewel Stakes on April 6. She was a good second at this level two-back.
Selections: 6-2-5
Race #3: 1-Lady Cruiser goes turf to dirt on the stretch-out for Sadler and drops from a $50k tag to the bottom-$20,000 level. This Catalina Cruiser filly should appreciate the return to the main track and is bred to handle two turns successfully. 3-Beautiful Janet goes turf to dirt and drops in for a first-time tag today for conditioner Bob Hess who is off to a quick start this Hollywood spring meet. 6-Warren’s Showgirl has been plagued by several layoff lines the last couple of years but just missed by a nose to repeat winner Unkept Secret when dropped to this level and moved to the main track back in February. The 5-year-old mare stretches out today and is a logical threat in this weak field if able to run back to that (55) Beyer.
Selections: 1-3-6
Race #4: 1-Eastern Ocean takes a sizable class plunge today off the freshening for trainer Peter Eurton exiting three consecutive graded-stake events. The veteran 7-year-old gelding draws the rail, should be able to save a decent amount of ground, and is projected to get a live race flow to set up his late kick. 3-Don’t Swear Dave moves back to turf making his second start off the Steve Knapp claim and was able to win an “off the turf” event two-back and finished third in his most recent try on March 23. A three-time winner over the Santa Anita grass, this 5-year-old, like the top pick, should get a favorable race flow to generate his late run. Eurton’s other entrant 7-Giovinazzo, will attempt to wire this field from his outside post but must deal with some other speed types drawn inside of him today, and he’s failed to run on in the late stages of his last two efforts going this one-mile trip.
Selections: 1-3-7
Race #5: 6-Knightwithlouis is one of two fillies that goes out for Team O’Neil. This gal worked a sharp three-furlongs on April 28 in preparation for this, and her sire Mrazek won his 4 ½ furlong debut by an impressive 4 ½ lengths. She’s nicely drawn outside. Her stablemate 1-Odies Memory Lane (by multiple grade 1 winner I’ll Have Another) needs an alert break from the rail but gets the hot hand of jockey Kyle Frey who was clicking close to 30% to start this Hollywood meet, and finds himself atop the jockey standings to start the race week. 7-Swift Harmony debuts for an outfit that’s more than capable of firing with a firster. This filly has trained sharp enough to consider here, or, at the very least, can be part of the vertical exotics.
Selections: 6-1-7
Race #6: 7-Really Thirsty moves back to turf off a well-beaten fifth back on Feb. 15 and looms a big threat making the all-important third career start. Her East Coast turf debut at Gulfstream resulted in a solid third-place finish and (69) grass Beyer. 5-Hayley Amber showed good speed in her grass debut on April 6 when battling gamely on the front end before tiring to third, and now makes her second start off the bench today for trainer Cesar DeAlba. 4-O Mandy hasn’t been out in nearly eight months but showed enough life in her only two previous grass tries to be considered a threat this afternoon despite the layoff. She adds Lasix today.
Selections: 7-5-4
Race #7: 6-Spiritual Advisor hasn’t won since January 2023, but exits a troubled trip fourth-place effort on April 5 at this level, where he earned a field’s best last-out main track Beyer. 4-Speed Grazy is another coming off a compromised journey exiting the same race as the top choice when checking in seventh. This 6-year-old gelding has a pair of runner-up finishes and a third at this level in three races prior to his last. 5-Nauvoo has flashed speed and tired in his last pair as the beaten chalk and has not returned to the impressive 10 ½ and 11 ½-length runaway victories three and four-back when trained by other outfits. It’s hard to gauge if this gelding will ever get back to that “off the charts” form and lofty Beyer figures.
Selections: 6-4-5
Race #8: 3-Stop Digging returned off a seven-month layoff to finish second in her grass debut for conditioner Simon Callaghan and now adds blinkers for the second start off the bench. Her initial main track debut last September at Del Mar also resulted in a runner-up finish. 5-Danzingwith Maxine chased the pace before tiring to finish sixth in an encouraging debut try exiting the same April 6 event as the top choice. She adds blinkers this afternoon for career start number two. This barn is a solid 4 for 16 (25%) with second-time starters at Santa Anita for the past 5 years. 8-Isabel Ludlow makes career start number 11 today, but has finished second and third a combined eight times and exits a troubled trip wide ninth in her most recent effort on April 21. She might appreciate shortening up to six furlongs this afternoon.
Selections: 3-5-8
