Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Starry Night (Race 4)
Race #1: Selections: 2-3-4
2-Eighties Music is by multiple Grade 1 winner Tiz the Law, who gets a strong 18% with his 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy. The filly debuts with a solid worktab for Baltas and could come out firing at first asking. Her stablemate, 3-Debby’s Gal is a logical fit, having finished third in all three lifetime starts and drops again off the mini-freshening. The daughter of Army Mule adds Lasix this afternoon. 4-Kintrigue (by McKinzie) debuts for the D’Amato barn off a steady but uninspiring series of drills. This barn is, however, a solid 5 for 30 (17%) with a $2.91 ROI with dirt sprint firsters at Santa Anita the past five years.
Race #2: Selections: 6-2-4
First off the claim 6-The Old Nine (Ire) has never tried dirt in 16 career tries but is by top sire No Nay Never and could potentially make the surface transition based on his speedy main track morning works. He fired a “best of 77” bullet five furlongs in :46 flat on Jan. 10. The 5-year-old returns as a first-time gelding today, adds blinkers, and exits a good second on Jan. 24. 2-Handsome Ticket steps up in class off the Jan. 10 claim and gate-to-wire win and adds blinkers today for the new barn. This 7-year-old gelding has had frequent layoff lines but seems to be back on track now and could easily take two straight with similar run-and-gun tactics. 4-Mici’s Express shortens back up today for Team O’Neill, second off the claim, and usually finds his way to the underneath vertical exotics.
Race #3: Selections: 5-2-3
Baffert’s 5-Blacksmith will look to break through today with a maiden victory and potentially get back on track for a Triple Crown run. The son of Liam’s Map has finished in the money three of four starts, including a runner-up effort in the G2 Los Al Futurity two-back behind stablemate Litmus Test. His stablemate, 2-Authentic Patriot, flashed speed and tired to sixth when dismissed at 8-1 on debut Nov. 22 behind the top choice, but can improve significantly on the stretch-out. He switches to barn’s go-to pilot Juan Hernandez and fired a “best of 70” bullet five furlongs in :59.1 in preparation for this on Feb. 7. Lasix on. 3-Sharon’s Beach ran extremely well off the five-month layoff in his first local appearance for conditioner Jonathan Thomas, firing a (89) main track Beyer with a second to repeat winner Liam Smith. He’s bred to go long on dirt and goes second-time Lasix today.
Race #4: Selections: 4-1-7
Runner-up in the Frankel (G3) at 28-1 off a four-month freshening, 4-Starry Night gets some class relief this afternoon for trainer Jonathan Thomas, making his second start locally. The daughter of Justify should be tough to overhaul, shortening up to a mile, if able to replicate that last (85) turf Beyer. 1-O K Rose finished second in front of a trio of today’s returning rivals on Jan. 16, and now moves inside to the rail today for Ayuso and Eurton. She’s been competitive at this level and should work out a favorable ground-saving journey. The late-closing 7-Idessia sports the field’s best late pace figure and figures to catch a live race flow to close into. She returns from a nine-month layoff for D’Amato, and this jockey-trainer combo is 7 for 22 (32%) with a positive ROI with turf horses returning off >180 days at SA the past three years.
Race #5: Selections: 7-3-2
A tricky $20k optional claiming 1X dirt sprint closes out the early pick five, where a few of these have taken turns beating each other. 7-Special Club has proved to be equally effective on dirt and turf for trainer Craig Lewis and exits a 16-1 upset turf score on Jan. 15. Two-back, he finished third to 3-One Smokin Dude, who was badly outrun when switching to turf on the stretch-out, but gets back to sprinting on dirt, where he won two straight prior to that last mishap. 2-Mr. Machupicchu is 1-for-24 but has finished second or third a dozen times and has the speed to clear this field this afternoon for trainer Jeff Bonde. The 4-year-old gelding sports the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (84).
Race #6: Selections: 7-6-5
7-Third Beer drops out of three consecutive stake tries, which included the G3 Zuma Beach and BC Juvenile Turf (G1), into this much softer spot this afternoon for conditioner Tim Yakteen. The 3-year-old Mendelssohn colt makes his second try off the mini-freshening and never had a realistic chance in the Eddie Logan S., stuck behind a sluggish pace. A more favorable race flow should improve his chances today, as he reunites with the winning pilot, Antonio Fresu. 6-Ventry Strand (by Violence) goes two sprints to a route today, having won half of his grass sprint tries for Sadler. The sophomore colt exits an odds-on even money on score Jan. 19 versus similar, and should have little issue with today’s one-mile trip. The Michael McCarthy-trained 5-Dark Blue added Lasix and blinkers for the maiden score when stretched out to today’s one-mile conditions on Jan. 15 and looks well-placed for his first crack against winners. Hernandez sticks.
Race #7: Selections: 8-4-5-6
8-Austonian was overmatched in the last for Hess, but drops from $20k claimers down to today’s $8,000 level and is likely to bounce back, second off the mini-freshening. The 6-year-old gelding earned a very competitive (83) Beyer two-back at today’s one-mile trip. 4-Tougherthantherest looks quickest out of the gate this afternoon, making his second try off the claim for conditioner Steve Knapp, who sports a solid 4 for 18 (22%) record with this claiming angle in dirt routes at Santa Anita. He’s never been offered for this low of a tag, and may prove tough to reel in with an alert break. Veteran pilot Victor Espinoza has made the most of his limited starts. 5-Broadway Unions is wheeled back fairly quickly after disposing of an N3L $10k claiming group and earning his third consecutive (72) main track Beyer on Feb. 8. Kimura replaces Pereira, who lands on 6-Dark Marcus. Marcus has not been out since April 6, when finishing second and claimed for $6,250. The 7-year-old gelding is 2-for-32 lifetime, but usually fires fresh.
Race #8: Selections: 1-9-4
1-Central Dispatch flashed speed and tired to sixth at the $50k claiming level when returning off 383 days’ rest for Sadler. The 6-year-old gelding drops in class today, makes his second try off that long layoff, and should move forward this afternoon with another upfront-pressing trip. Class dropping 9-Donic rallied for the place spot when facing both Central Dispatch and Tigerhon on Jan. 15. The veteran 8-year-old gelding sports the field’s best last-out Beyer (88) and retains Hernandez, making the second try off the mini-freshening. 4-Wild Jewels hasn’t been out since March 2024, but makes his first start in the Sean McCarthy barn and initial try on grass. He has finished first or second in six of nine lifetime tries, prior to hitting the sidelines, and should take to the turf. He’s by G1 winner Tamarando (17% turf sprinters).
