Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Naismith (Race 7)
Race #1: Selections: 6-7-8
6-America’s Mark battled determinedly on the front end before tiring to finish sixth in a well-backed debut some 4 ½ months ago. This filly makes her first start for a new barn this afternoon while moving to turf and adding Lasix. Her sire, American Pharoah, gets an average of 12% with turf sprint prodigy. 7-Thetribehasspoken (by Mr. Big) finished an even fifth in her Nov. 22 turf sprint debut and is eligible to move forward off that effort for D’Amato. Blinkers off 8-Oldies Memory Lane makes her second start off the bench today for Team O’Neill and worked well over the main track on Jan. 19.
Race #2: Selections: 1-3-2
1-Someone Like You goes turf to dirt while making her second start off the bench for conditioner Steve Knapp. This 4-year-old filly is by Stanford, who gets a solid 17% with his dirt sprint prodigy. She is eligible to move forward with the surface switch as indicated by her five-furlong bullet “best of 59” drill on Jan. 17 in :47 flat. 3-Wishes to Riches flashed good speed before tiring through some taxing fractions when stepping to this level on Nov. 30 and now makes the third start of the form cycle today for conditioner Phil D’Amato. 2-Dangerous Affair steps up to face winners this afternoon, exiting a recent Maiden score at Los Al on Dec. 15. Her winning Beyer (71) matches up well in this spot for Glatt.
Race #3: Selections: 4-7-1
4-Santarena makes career start number 10 today but has hit the board in five of nine tries for trainer Mark Glatt and exits a solid runner-up effort on Dec. 27. This son of Omaha Beach will be tough this afternoon if able to replicate that last (90) main track Beyer. 7-Extensive (by City of Light) shortens up today for start number two for the McCarthy barn, exiting a solid third in her Dec. 8 one-mile Los Al debut. 1-Dr. Park is a pricey $850k son of Uncle Mo debuting for trainer John Shirreffs off a solid a.m. work tab. However, the 4-year-old colt draws the tricky rail post today, and this barn is only 3 for 72 (4%), with first-time starters in the past four years.
Race #4: Selections: 6-1-3
6-San Saba (a $725K son of Justify) flashed solid early zip through snappy splits before tiring to finish third in his well-backed debut for Team Baffert on Dec. 26. The colt adds Lasix for start number two, shows three strong works since the unveiling, and should be tough with any normal second-out progression. His stablemate, 1-Varney, is a $775k September 2023 Keeneland purchase by multiple G1 winner Vekoma. He arrives on the scene with the barn’s typical speedy a.m. drills. 3-Father Ted finished in front of San Saba in the aforementioned Dec. 26 Maiden event for conditioner Mark Glatt. The son of Practical Joke earned a lofty (84) Beyer for that sharp runner-up effort and is a logical fit while also adding Lasix in start number two.
Race #5: Selections: 4-5-3
4-Noble Reflection scampered away to a decisive 3 ¾-length win over the downhill course on Dec. 26 for the Papaprodromou barn over a bulky field, earning a field’s best last-out (90) grass Beyer. The 5 for 20 7-year-old gelding now tries six furlongs over the straight course and is the deserving morning line favorite to repeat. 5-Santo Dios (Arg) returns off an 11-month hiatus for a low-profile barn but attracts top turf pilot Hector Berrios and has proven he can fire fresh. The lightly raced 3-Western Avenue finished a troubled trip sixth behind the top choice in the aforementioned Dec. 26 event and is eligible to improve today with a cleaner getaway.
Race #6: Selections: 2-3-4
2-Halo Rando drew off to a handy, easy victory over this course on Jan. 3, posting a career-best (80) Beyer for trainer Dean Pederson. This 4-year-old gelding has hit the board in 12 of 13 career tries and is a short price to repeat for a barn that frequently strings wins together. Blinkers on 3-Tesoro did little running in his most recent start when a well-beaten seventh but goes first off the claim today for conditioner Steve Knapp. He’s a contender if he can regain that previous Northern California form. 4-Lessons of Autism has a ton of early zip and arrives from Los Al in sharp form, having won two straight 1,000-yard heats. The 7-year-old gelding could get brave if able to shake free.
Race #7: Selections: 5-3-9
5-Naismith finished a solid fourth (beaten less than a length) when returning off an eight-month layoff for trainer Bob Hess on Dec. 29. The gelding switches to veteran pilot Kent Desormeaux, who has consistently done well for these connections for an extended period of time. The pair teamed up to win with 6-1 mare Sweet Hello last Sunday. 3-Tizz a Good Thing just missed by a nose when getting the best of several of these returning rivals when last seen in the aforementioned Dec. 29 event for conditioner Carla Gaines. The 5-year-old gelding is a logical threat right back. 9-Forty Niner Gold was part of that close photo with the top pair when returning off the mini-freshening for Sadler. He has good early zip to coincide with today’s outside draw, and figures for another favorable upfront pressing trip.
Race #8: Selections 5-2-1
The 2024 San Felipe winner and runner-up in the SA Derby 5-Imagination stretches back out for his second start off the bench for Baffert after finishing third in the seven-furlong G1 Malibu on Dec. 26. The 4-year-old son of Into Mischief sports the field’s best last-out Beyer (101) and has already proven she can handle two turns. 2-Midnight Mammoth through in a clunker when attempting to shorten up at Turf Paradise on Jan. 6 but is back routing this afternoon for trainer Craig Dollase. The gelding rattled off three straight track route victories with top Beyers (96,95,93) before that last misstep. 1-Tarantino has speed and the rail today for conditioner Peter Eurton, exiting a strong runner-up try in the G2 Laffit Pincay on Dec. 26. The 7-year-old gelding will likely be sent aggressively from the fence with Maldonado back aboard.
Race #9: Selections 5-6-3
5-Mr. Mustache was beaten double digits in his most recent start for trainer Jeff Mullins but drops in for a first-time tag today in a weak field and is eligible to spring to life against this inferior group. 6-Ignatowski makes start number 13 today but has hit the board in his last five tries for Knapp and fits on Beyers. The Baffert-trained 3-Truehood (by Nyquist) originally cost $700k and now shows up for a $20k tag off a very extended layoff. There are a lot of obvious red flags here, so we’ll let the 5-year-old beat us at likely short odds.
Race #10: Selections 2-6-1
2-Strutting (GB) drops out of the G1 American Oaks into this softer spot this afternoon while making her third stateside start for McCarthy. She finished a good second two-back behind next-out winner Sareeha (Ire). 6-Kentucky Gal (Ire) makes her first stateside start off a six-month layoff for trainer Phil D’Amato and has strained well locally over the synthetic track. This 4-year-old filly by multiple G1 winner Churchill (Ire) showed solid ability overseas. 1-Big Mama Sue steps up in class off a sharp three-length win on Dec. 27 over this course. The 7-year-old mare drew a cozy inside post today and is a multiple winner going today’s 1 1/8-mile trip.
