Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 9-Ang N Ash (Race 9)
Race #1: Selections: 5-6-4
5-You Decide goes dirt to turf in career try number three for trainer Peter Eurton and is eligible to move forward in her second Southern California start. The juvenile filly is by Sir Prancealot (Ire), who gets a solid 20% with his turf sprint offspring, and she switches to Hernandez this afternoon. 6-Rosa Parks has trained well in her a.m. drills for D’Amato, and this jockey-trainer combo has a pair of first-time-starter turf sprint winners the past year. Dirt to turf 4-Pavel’s Etoile ran well in her lone turf attempt over this course back in June and can grab a piece of the underneath vertical exotics.
Race #2: Selections: 5-2-1
5-Devil Be Me moves back to the main track on the turnback, where he was a decisive 2 ½-length victor two-back over this course. The 6-year-old gelding is (3-1-0) from four starts at Santa Anita. 2-Ready to Pounce shortens back up while making his second start off the Sadler claim after finishing a disappointing, well-beaten sixth on Sept. 28 at Del Mar. This shrewd barn is a strong 9 for 18 (50%) with a $2.91 ROI the past four years with second off-the-claim dirt sprint runners at Santa Anita, so a bounce-back effort is well within reach. 1-Disko Tribute has speed and the rail draw and has run equally well on dirt and turf for conditioner Craig Dollase. He exits a runner-up finish in a small stake at Fresno.
Race #3: Selections: 1-4-7
1-Om N Joy was overmatched in the G2 Oak Leaf on Oct. 5 but shortens back up today and switches to turf for conditioner Aggie Ordonez. Her sire Om is (5-0-6) from 20 tries with turf sprint starters, according to DRF Formulator Sire Stats, making her eligible to improve this afternoon while moving back down to the Maiden ranks. 4-Orange Thunder has shown some ability in both grass starts thus far and now makes the all-important third career try today for trainer Craig Lewis. A beaten favorite in the last off a tough trip, 7-Less Is More moves to turf for Team O’Neill while making career start number three and switches to top turf pilot Umberto Rispoli.
Race #4: Selections: 2-4-5
2-Black Beards Ghost is by multiple G1 winner Goldencents, who gets an average of 11% with his 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy. This gelding debuts with Lasix and has trained well enough for today’s unveiling for a solid jockey-trainer combo that’s 5 for 12 (42%) with a $4.77 ROI the past four years with dirt first-time-starters at Santa Anita. 4-Majestic Palisades is a logical threat off two sharp efforts to start his career and exits a strong runner-up finish at Los Al on Sept. 22 for trainer Dean Pederson, who is red-hot as of late. 5-Uncle Chilly returns off a seven-month freshening and sports the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (74) when last seen finishing a close-up third while sprinting over this main track.
Race #5: Selections: 1-3-4
1-Middleburg makes career start number seven today and has had several close finishes going two turns on grass for Team Baffert. The son of Tapit has speed and the rail and could shake loose today. He finished third behind next-out-winning gelding Spycatcher (85 turf Beyer) when last seen on August 31. 3-Dairago (Fr) ran a decent fourth in his first stateside effort on Sept. 28 and is eligible to move forward off that try for conditioner Bob Hess. 4-Rostovsky is a strong win candidate, exiting back-to-back runner-up finishes at this level in the last two turf route starts for Glatt and sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (84).
Race #6: Selections: 3-2-6
The Baffert-trained 3-Ultra Power (by Curlin) was a runaway seven-length winner with a lofty (104) Beyer when last seen on August 31 at Del Mar when returning off a nine-month layoff. The 3-year-old colt has trained well since that last start and is a logical threat for the repeat if he can avoid a regression off that top figure. 2-For All Mankind goes two sprints to a route for Sadler, exiting a well-beaten sixth in the G2 Santa Anita Sprint Championships on Sept. 28. The 5-year-old gelding by Into Mischief was a sharp gate-to-wire winner two-back at Del Mar and is eligible to bounce back in this spot on the stretch-out and strong work pattern. Baffert’s other colt, 6-Imagination, finished third in the Shared Belief Stakes in his most recent try on Sept. 1 behind stablemate and multiple G1 winner Muth and should move forward off that try. His “best of 51” five furlong bullet drill in :59.1 on Oct. 20 was very sharp and he loves Santa Anita.
Race #7: Selections: 4-5-1
The 5 for 10 4-Stay Hot exits a good closing second in the G2 Del Mar Derby on Sept. 1 and projects to fall into a favorable stalking trip this afternoon for conditioner Peter Eurton. 5-Cathal (Ire) moves up in class to try stakes-caliber 3-year-olds off a recent sharp-looking score on Sept. 1 at Del Mar. The John Sadler-trained colt is on the improve and may be ready to tackle this classier lineup. 1-Atitlan finished third behind the top choice in the aforementioned DMR Derby and has improved Beyer-wise with each subsequent start for Shirreffs.
Race #8: Selections: 8-7-3
A tough read on recent Sept. 22 vet scratch 8-Jarama, who was an impressive 4-length Maiden winner when last seen on Sept. 1 when earning a field’s best last-out (79) Beyer. The 3-year-old gelding shows up for a $12,500 price tag today for trainer Tim Yakteen but should crush these if physically right. A live projected early race flow also helps his off-the-pace running style. The lightly raced 7-Rick’s Red Storm shortens back up on the class plunge and fits well here. 3-Chasing Rain finished a much-improved third on the turnback and claim on Sept. 29 and now drops below the $16k purchase price for trainer Kelly Bainum.
Race #9: Selections: 9-2-3
A winner of two of her last three grass sprint tries and a close-up third in her most recent effort on Sept. 28, stamps late-closing 9-Ang N Ash as the filly to beat in here. She sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (84) and should find the downhill layout to her liking. 2-Lovin’ On the Run finished a better-than-looks troubled trip sixth when stuck behind heavy traffic when making her first try against winners on Sept. 28. 3-Annie’s Joy showed very little in her route comeback effort on Sept. 8 but shortens up this afternoon, making her second start off the eight-month freshening for trainer Mark Glatt. Improvement is likely.
Race #10: Selections: 5-4-8
5-Sbagliato is wheeled back on short rest off a game win on Oct. 11 and is a solid repeat candidate for D’Amato. 4-Donner Lake moves back to turf while making his third start off the bench today for conditioner Michael McCarthy. Most of this 6-year-old’s better races have come on grass. 8-Flint Stroll hasn’t had the smoothest of trips in his last pair of turf routes for the Papaprodromou barn and picks up the hot hand of jockey Kazushi Kimura.
