Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Jimmy Blue Jeans (Race 9)
Race #1: Selections: 7-1-9
The D’Amato-trained 7-Cuban Confusion (GB) just missed by a nose in his first stateside try on Feb. 23 and looks like today’s top threat to finally break through in career try number twelve. The 4-year-old gelding had several close finishes overseas before arriving in the U.S. and sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (83). His stablemate, 1-Broski (Ire), has good speed while getting his third consecutive rail draw. He crossed the wire second but was disqualified to third for interference in his last start on March 29. 9-Mutaz is a $550K Nyquist colt debuting for Team Baffert off a solid main track work tab. However, this successful barn is only 1 for 24 over the past five years with turf firsters.
Race #2: Selections: 3-1-5
The eight-time winning gelding 3-Positivity has won two of his last three starts at this level for the Papaprodromou barn from off-the-pace and gets top billing again today despite there being little obvious early speed signed on. 1-Momad was runner-up to the top choice on March 29 and now makes his third try of the form cycle this afternoon for trainer John Shirreffs. The 3-year-old 5-Smooth Cruisein adds Lasix today and drops out of a pair of Grade 2 events into this softer spot. The 3-year-old son of Girvin makes his third start off the bench and worked well on April 21.
Race #3: Selections: 8-5-2
A very competitive N3L $20k Claiming sprint with several different directions one could potentially go. We will try returnee 8-Goldensunrise, who was a winner and voided claim when last seen going gate-to-wire at Del Mar last August for trainer Andy Mathis. The speedy 5-year-old gelding has trained steadily for today’s return to action for a good layoff barn. 5-Carol’s Comic is only 2-for-31 lifetime, but exits a runner-up try on March 22, where he earned a field’s best (77) main track Beyer. 2-Tamarando Star has not been out in 10 months for trainer Jeff Bonde, but shortens up to a sprint today off the long layoff and drops in for a career-low claiming tag. This barn is a respectable 3 for 13 (23%) with horses returning off >180 days sprinting on dirt.
Race #4: Selections: 3-2-1
The lightly raced 3-Eagles Flight earned a triple-digit Beyer with an impressive 4 ½-length romp on March 8 for trainer John Sadler. The 4-year-old son of Curlin looks tough right back with a similar performance. The colt shows three strong a.m. drills since that winning effort. 2-Mirahmadi was trounced by double digits when overmatched in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap on March 1, but drops back down to a more realistic level today for Baffert and was a solid one-mile gate-to-wire winner two back. Sadler’s other entrant, 1-For All Mankind, stretches back out this afternoon, exiting three consecutive runner-up finishes. Two of those three were against Grade 3 company.
Race #5: Selections: 6-7-5
6-We’re in Trouble finished a good second off the nine-month layoff on March 15 for trainer Michael McCarthy, and is likely to move forward off that try, moving back to the downhill course. The lightly raced 4-year-old was an allowance winner over this course in his lone attempt in career start number two, and projects to get a favorable stalking trip with Hernandez. 7-Sharp Aza Tack is 4-for-11 lifetime but has not been out in roughly 13 months since being claimed for $80k by the Miller barn. The 5-year-old’s a.m. return drills have been average. 5-Charge for Gold weakened to finish last in the Grade 3 San Simeon when last seen on March 8, but was a 15-1 upset winner at this level over the downhill two-back.
Race #6: Selections: 1-8-7
1-Aggro drops another notch off a closing runner-up finish against $32k Maiden Claimers for Mullins and sports the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (60). This looks like the right level for graduation day. 8–Be a Goldfish drops to a career-low claiming tag while making her third start off the bench on the stretch-out. Her sire, Tapwrit, gets an above-average 17% with his dirt route prodigy. 7-Petite Ange makes career try number 14 this afternoon, but now removes the blinkers off the March 16 claim while making her third start of the form cycle. The Ryan Hanson trainee deserves another crack against this reduced level after finishing third against a similar group in the last.
Race #7: Selections: 6-2-4
Runner-up in the Grade 2 Buena Vista and winner of the Grade 3 Wilshire 6-Tirupati holds a double Beyer advantage over the rest of this field for trainer Jonathan Thomas. The 4-for-13 daughter of Mitole figures to get another upfront pressing journey with red-hot Rispoli back aboard. 2-Raw Ability is a perfect undefeated 3-for-3 for Sadler, with her last two wins coming on U.S. soil. She gets a stiff class this afternoon, but has done nothing wrong thus far and looks fully capable of winning again. 4-Uncorked (Aus) won this event last year for D’Amato and makes her third try off the bench this afternoon off a pair of even efforts. This 6-year-old mare figures to get a livelier pace to close into today.
Race #8: Selections 10-6-7
Turf to dirt 10-Champagne Camie drops to a career-low claiming tag today for Sadler and was an 11 ½-length runaway winner over a short field when last on dirt two-back. The 5-for-15 6-year-old mare has good speed to coincide with today’s outside draw and will be tough to overhaul if able to run back to that winning (77) Beyer. Claimed from her last two starts, 6-Discrepancy returns protected today for the Peter Miller barn. The daughter of Audible is a multiple winner over the track and distance and projects to get a live race flow to close into. Northern California shipper 7-Mo Town Gal returns off a nine-month freshening for an excellent layoff barn and seems like a good fit at this level while making her initial try at Santa Anita.
Race #9: Selections 7-1-5
The stakes-winning 7-Jimmy Blue Jeans is the fastest out of the gate and simply the class of this field for trainer Jeff Mullins. The 7-year-old gelding exits back-to-back (85) grass Beyers when facing better in his last two efforts. He looks like a solid gate-to-wire threat today with Hernandez taking over the riding assignment. First off the claim 1-Clouseau has done most of his running over the main track but has had success on turf, albeit limited opportunities. The gelding lures top grass pilot Hector Berrios today and figures to work out an advantageous journey from the rail. 5-Brazenly is winless on turf, but moves back to that surface while dropping back down to a level where he’s been somewhat competitive.
Race #10: Selections 2-6-10
2-Valentines Candy hasn’t been all that competitive in his last five tries, and may not want to go this far. However, he takes a substantial class drop today for conditioner Jesus Mendoza, and should fall into a favorable stalking journey with Kimura. 6-White Mountain steps up in class off a solid 4 ¼-length Maiden score on March 30, and he need not improve much off that winning (62) Beyer to have a chance for the repeat. 10-Asmodeus was well-beaten by double digits in his last pair of synthetic tries at Turfway, but now heads west for a new barn and is back on dirt, where he has shown prior success. He is obviously not the same gelding he was in 2024, but deserves a long look against this suspect group.
Race #11: Selections 5-10-3
5-Godavri returns off the nine-month layoff for conditioner Dan Blacker and switches to grass for her second career try. The 3-year-old filly closed well for fourth despite a slow break in her July 2024 Los Al unveiling and is bred to like grass. She’s by Om, who, as of this writing, was 9 for 44 (20%) with his grass sprint offspring. 10-Have Patience shortens up to a sprint today after flashing speed and tiring going one mile on March 28. The 4-year-old filly just missed by a nose when last seen sprinting on turf three-back when making her 2025 debut. She switches to Rispoli this afternoon for Team O’Neill. 3-Big City Miss finished a disappointing eighth and last in a well-backed March 23 debut and now shortens up to a sprint in start number two. The daughter of Mr. Big lures Hernandez this afternoon, and she is likely to show more ability today.
