Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Captain Sparrow (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 7-1-4
7-Maury Wills has fired back-to-back (76) main track Beyers for D’Amato with two third-place efforts, including an “off-the-turf” event on Jan. 2. This gelding has plenty of turf pedigree on his dam side to suggest he could be even better on grass. The Glatt-trained 1-Big Bill makes career try number nine today but shortens back up to a sprint, second off the bench, and has run par for this level with several close-up finishes. The 4-year-old gelded son of English Channel did not have the smoothest of trips on Jan. 15 and can improve today. 4-Little Raymond was beaten by double digits in both tries for Baltas, but switches to Hernandez this afternoon, returning to the grass as a first-time gelding. He’s likely to show more spunk today.
Race #2: Selections: 5-3-4
The 6-year-old 5-Captain Sparrow has been plagued by layoff lines throughout his career, but sports the field’s best last-out Beyer (75), drops to a career-low claiming tag, and projects to be on or close to the lead this afternoon. 3-Horizon Wildcat was overmatched in the last pair (with a tardy start on Jan. 17), but drops back down to a more fitting level today and is reunited with winning pilot, Kaz Kimura. 4-Broadway Unions has seen his Beyers improve in each subsequent try since last September. He makes the third start of the form cycle today off a well-beaten second over a pair of today’s returning rivals on Jan. 2.
Race #3: Selections: 1-2-3
1-Exington shortens back up to a mile after flashing good speed and tiring when last seen at the end of December, when facing a trio of today’s returning rivals. The 4-year-old daughter of Hard Spun appears to be the clear frontrunner again today in a paceless affair and could prove tough to reel in from the fence. 2-With Love (GB) just missed by a nose three months ago when returning off an extended layoff for Berrios and Sadler. The 6-year-old mare is 1-for-18 with five runner-up finishes but holds a double Beyer turf advantage over the rest of this field and takes a sizable class plunge today. She may not get enough of a favorable race flow to close into, however. The 1-for-17 3-Sakura Flavor (Ire) rallied for the place spot to outfinish the top choice in last. The mare switches to Hernandez today, but is 0-for-6 at a mile and 0-for-10 over the SA sod.
Race #4: Selections: 3-4-1
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the San Pasqual (G2) five times. He sends out G3 winning 3-Getaway Car, who is reunited with the barn’s go-to pilot, Juan Hernandez, on the stretch out. The $700k son of Curlin is likely to bounce back in this spot with an upfront-pressing journey. The ultra-consistent 4-Bartholdy has hit the board in 12 consecutive races for Knapp, including finishing third to Nysos in his most recent try in the G2 Laffit Pincay on Dec. 28. The 5-year-old gelding took a long time to break his maiden and mature, but has the right grinding running style that should serve him well today at the one-mile trip. He has no stakes wins, however. 1-Midnight Mammoth stretches back out and steps back up to face stakes competition this afternoon for conditioner Craig Dollase. The 7-year-old gelding was a sharp 7-furlong winner on Jan. 16, earning the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (99).
Race #5: Selections: 4-5-7
4-She’s a Joker is 0-for-10 at today’s one-mile trip but just missed by a nose two-back at this distance and class level for Miller. The 7-year-old mare owns the best late pace figure in the field and projects to get a live race flow to close into. She gets another jockey change to the more-than-capable Emisael Jaramillo. 5-Mayacama is the logical choice, having won two of her last three for Mullins, and proving to be equally effective on dirt and turf. Hernandez has been onboard for all four of this mare’s career wins. The lightly raced 7-Apple Pie broke her maiden on Jan. 11 with a sharp closing last-to-first rally for trainer Neil Drysdale and now stretches out for her first crack against winners. Berrios sticks with the daughter of Grazen, and she may offer further upside.
Race #6: Selections: 3-7-8
Baffert sends out a trio of well-bred sophomore colts in this six-furlong MDSW main track sprint. 3-Crude Velocity (by Beau Liam) has trained sharply for his unveiling, attracts barn’s go-to pilot, Juan Hernandez, and figures to come out firing. His stablemate, 7-Potente, is a $2.4 million Fasig Tipton purchase by Into Mischief. This pricey 3-year-old has his own arsenal of swift a.m. drills, including a “best of 90” four-furlong bullet in :46.2 on Jan. 11 and a five-furlong gate drill in :59.3 on Jan. 25. 8-Captain Shreve is one of only two in here with prior racing experience. This gelded son of Runhappy flashed good speed before tiring to second in his Dec. 28 unveiling over this course, earning a solid 79 Beyer. He adds Lasix today, has trained well since then for the Papaprodromou barn, and is nicely drawn outside.
Race #7: Selections: 2-7-3
A beaten odds-on favorite in the last, 2-Public Assembly ran better than her fifth-place finish indicates in the Robert J. Frankel (G3) when beaten less than two lengths on Jan. 8, and should get a live race flow to help utilize her excellent closing kick today. The G3-winning daughter of More Than Ready shortens up to a mile this afternoon and switches to Berrios. 7-Vibez has won two of three of her last one-mile grass routes and drops out of the G1 Matriarch into this softer spot this afternoon for conditioner Peter Eurton. The 5-year-old mare is reunited with winning rider Juan Hernandez today and should fall into a favorable stalking trip. 3-Princesa Moche (Per) showed good speed at 16-1 when gamely holding on to the place spot in the G3 Las Cienegas on Jan. 11, posting the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (94). The 11-time winner is a big threat with a similar effort for Team O’Neill.
Race #8: Selections: 7-5-2
A maiden winner two back, the lightly raced 4-year-old 7-Simple Song has hit the board in all three career starts for trainer Mark Glatt and looks to be the clear frontrunner in this field. The Munnings gelding carved out some snappy opening splits before tiring to third when facing several of these on Jan. 2, and is dangerous if allowed to grab the front with reasonable fractions. 5-Cornucopian (a pricey $1.1 million Keeneland 2023 purchase) by Into Mischief has not been out in nine months for Team Baffert but has trained smartly for his return to action and is one of only two that have earned triple-digit Beyers in the field. He was a late scratch in the G1 Malibu when flipping in the paddock. He removes the blinkers today for his first start in Southern California. 2-Red Flag got a great set-up to run down the top choice in the aforementioned Jan. 2 event, fresh off the claim for Mullins, and is a logical threat right back with another half furlong to work with.
Race #9: Selections: 2-11-8
A full field of sophomore fillies ends the pay-out leg in several horizontal wagers in what amounts to an ultra-competitive MDSW grass sprint nightcap. 2-Novita Dominga is by hot sire Not This Time, who is a solid 16% with 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy and turf sprinters. The filly debuts with Lasix for a lucrative jockey-trainer combo that is 5 for 11 (45%) with a $4.05 ROI the past three years with grass first-time starters. 11-Counterbalance is one of two from the Michael McCarthy barn. This filly returns off a two-month mini-freshening after finishing second on the turf in front of recent next-out maiden winner Miss Donna. Lasix on. The other McCarthy filly is 8-Mo Sasha (by multiple G1 winner Constitution), who lures Hernandez off a moderate work tab and will likely get lost in the betting.
