Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Troisieme Etoile (Race 1)
Race #1: Selections: 1-9-7
The Doug O’Neill-trained 1-Troisieme Etoile was bet down to 4-5 favoritism on Jan. 17 and unleashed a strong rally from far back to grab the place spot, while running out of racetrack late. The daughter of Kentucky Derby winner I’ll Have Another figures to be a handful in start number two with any normal second-out progression. Hernandez replaces the sidelined Rispoli. 9-Maggles McGee ran on well for the place spot despite breaking a step slow in her Jan. 17 unveiling when facing a trio of today’s returning rivals. This hot barn has solid second-out above-average grass sprint stats, and the daughter of Maclean’s Music is likely to move forward off that encouraging debut. 7-Christa McAuliffe goes dirt to turf in start number two after a troubled trip dirt sprint debut on Jan. 30. After a reluctant loading process, she got into some traffic issues before settling for fifth. The sophomore filly is by Grazen, who gets a solid 16% with turf sprint starters, and improvement is likely. She attracted decent tote support on debut and switches to Maldonado this afternoon.
Race #2: Selections: 5-6-2
5-Love Our Family ran on well for the runner-up spot when dropped to this $8k claiming level off the nine-month layoff on Jan. 15. She earned the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (70) that afternoon, which is above par for this class level. She should prove tough to beat in here with any second-off-the-bench forward progression. The hard-hitting, consistent mare 6-Unbridled Scholar has only missed the superfecta in two of 17 career tries and is quick enough to potentially clear this field from her outside post. She meets the top choice again, however, and will need to find more to turn the tables. 2-Lady Laoban has yet to hit the board since transferring to Southern California, but moves back to dirt today on the substantial class drop and can improve in this softer spot.
Race #3: Selections: 4-6-1
4-Issa Court hopped at the start when finishing an even fifth when last seen in the Jan. 17 SMFM Turf S. over the downhill course for trainer Bob Hess and now drops in class, second off the mini-freshening. The six-time winning veteran 8-year-old mare should appreciate getting away from multiple stakes-winner Grand Slam Smile this afternoon, and is eligible to bounce back in this softer spot over the regular turf course. 6-Oveta’s Hobby was a troubled trip fourth when stumbling over the dirt on the crossover Jan. 9 and now goes first off the claim for conditioner O.J. Jauregui. This barn is 1-for-18 (but has 8 ITM finishes) with newly acquired purchases and lures winning pilot Juan Hernandez off the recent acquisition. Juan was aboard for the six-furlong N3L allowance win three back. 1-Shin Jidai (GB) cuts back to a sprint after a tepid beaten-favorite wide third on Jan. 30. The 5-year-old mare will have to negotiate today’s rail draw this afternoon, but earned a competitive race par (81) turf Beyer at Del Mar two back and is dangerous if she can run back to that figure.
Race #4: Selections: 2-3-6
Turf to dirt 2-Dorie Miller is 0-for-9 over the Santa Anita main track but projects to get a live race flow to close into today for trainer Leonard Powell. The 5-year-old mare has managed to hit the board in five of her six last dirt tries and has been competitive at this level in the past. 3-Stay in Line looks to register the barn’s first win of this meet off the Feb. 1 acquisition. This daughter of Stay Thirsty is a 5-time winner and has won half of her starts (6-3-0-1) on the Santa Anita main track. She’s unproven going a mile over dirt, however. Recent maiden winner 6-Syntax got her head down at the wire for the nose victory, sprinting six furlongs on Jan. 25, and now stretches out for her first crack against winners. She is by Pavel, who gets 16% with dirt route runners, so today’s one-mile journey should be well within her wheelhouse of distance limitations.
Race #5: Selections: 1-3-8
1-Infinitum (by Grazen) won an off-the-turf dirt sprint to break his maiden in start number two on Jan. 2 and now gets back to his intended turf surface this afternoon for his first start against winners. The 4-year-old gelding, retained by Hernandez for trainer Mark Glatt, is lightly raced and can improve further on the surface switch. 3-Billy Joe Shaver battled on the lead through some snappy early splits before tiring to fourth when moved back to grass on Jan. 24. The 5-year-old mare goes second off the claim this afternoon, removes the blinkers, and gets Berrios back in the saddle. He figures to get a favorable upfront-pressing trip over the downhill today. The Doug O’Neill-trained 8-Bro Bro has run well in four of six starts when starting with Lasix, which he gets this afternoon. He was outkicked to finish third off the eight-month freshening and can improve this afternoon, second off the bench.
Race #6: Selections: 2-5-3
2-Rocky Colavito goes turf to dirt on the drop into maiden claimers this afternoon for D’Amato on the turnback. The 3-year-old gelding goes second-time Lasix and lands in a weak $50k maiden claiming field. 5-Allequin Summer is an interesting shipper making his first start off the claim for conditioner Paula Capestro off two tries in Kentucky—sprinting on both dirt and turf. This barn has had good results (from a limited sample) with new acquisitions, and this colt adds blinkers and Lasix for his first Southern California try off a steady worktab at San Luis Rey. 3-One Step Beyond makes career try number 10 today, having hit the board in seven of nine tries. The gray gelding shortens back up today when a well-beaten second in a four-horse field on Jan. 24.
Race #7: Selections: 9-7-4
The classy 9-Gold Phoenix (Ire) has won two of his last three and has been freshened since a closing fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). The veteran 10-year-old gelding is 10-for-29 lifetime and has maintained his strong form despite his age, a strong testament to the training skills of conditioner Phil D’Amato. His recent bullet drills on the synthetic course, in preparation for this, indicate he is as good as ever. 7-Stay Hot has enough positional speed to stay within striking range for trainer Peter Eurton and makes his third start of the form cycle today. The consistent 5-year-old has battled several of these over the last two seasons, including a runner-up finish to Gold Phoenix in both the G2 John Henry and Del Mar Handicap. Perhaps he can turn the tables today with Hernandez. The multiple Grade 2-winning 4-Truly Quality returns to Southern California off a third-place finish over the yielding Sam Houston course on Jan. 24 in the John B. Connally Turf Cup. The gelding was a beaten favorite sixth in last year’s edition and will need some pace to run at today to get back into the winner’s circle. She is classy but may not have the necessary race flow to capitalize on her strong late run.
Race #8: Selections: 9-6-3
The speedy 9-Video Review makes his first dirt try today in start number seven and drops from recent $50k maiden claimers down to today’s $20k level. The gelded son of Nyquist flashed good speed but tiring badly to finish last off the five-month layoff on Jan. 19, but should find this reduced level more appealing for Sadler. While no match for the race winner, 6-Brahms Mendelssohn finished second when dropped to this reduced level on the surface switch and turnback on Jan. 15, and is a must-include again, making his second try against $20k maiden claimers. The gelding’s (53) dirt Beyer matches up well against this suspect group. 3-Charmz Away makes career try number 14 today but drops in for a career-low claiming tag off back-to-back fifth-place finishes against better.
Race #9: Selections: 9-7-2
9-Miss Kitty Boom flashed speed before tiring to finish fourth at 13-1 in her Jan. 10 unveiling for trainer Richard Baltas when facing a trio of today’s returning rivals. The 4-year-old filly switches to Hernandez for career start number two and can move forward. 7-Bint Al Dandy (Ire) has had several up-close turf MDSW finishes, including back-to-back seconds since moving out to Southern California and defeating the top choice in last. She is a logical fit again, second off the mini-freshening, but hard to trust at likely short odds. 2-Convo (by McKinzie) goes dirt to turf in start number two, exiting a sharp second on debut back on Dec. 29. This barn is 7 for 30 (23%) the past five years with dirt to turf second-time starters. Berrios climbs aboard and has had good success for these connections.
