Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Will Happen (Race 3)
Race #1: Selections: 3-10-9
3-Booked Clubhouse rallied for the place spot despite breaking a tad slowly behind repeat winner Romantic Ride and now makes his second try off the mini-freshening for conditioner Sean McCarthy. The 3-year-old gelded son of Clubhouse Ride goes second-time Lasix. A pair of thirds to start his career, the Mark Glatt-trained 10-Parnelli Jones has just enough grass pedigree to suggest he will handle the surface switch and has good speed from today’s outside draw. 9-King’s Ride (by Clubhouse Ride) debuts off a steady work tab for trainer Craig Lewis and lures Hernandez at first asking. This barn is 0 for 14 with turf firsters the past five years, however.
Race #2: Selections: 4-1-6
The lightly raced 4-The Last Straw exits a sharp 2 ¾-length maiden victory on Feb. 15 when adding blinkers, where he posted the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer. The $250k son of Into Mischief looks well-spotted for his first crack against winners. 1-For All Mankind flashed speed and tired to fourth when last seen at Los Al back on Dec. 5, but switches back to jockey Juan Hernandez this afternoon, who sports a win and two seconds when aboard this veteran gelding. 6-Red Flag has run well in both main-track sprint tries to start 2026 for Mullins, posting 91 and 93 Beyer speed figures. The 8-time winner figures to be rolling late again this afternoon, making his third start of the form cycle.
Race #3: Selections: 2-1-5
The 3-year-old daughter of Vekoma 2-Will Happen drops out of the Surfer Girl (G3) into this softer spot this afternoon for conditioner Richard Baltas on the turnback, and she was a 4 ½-length maiden winner on debut sprinting at Del Mar. The filly has good speed, adds Lasix today, and has trained well off the five-month layoff over the local synthetic course. 1-Umbralle finished a solid third in the Sweet Life S. on Feb. 7 at 22-1 in a bulky field and now drops back down to the level of her second-place finish two back, when finishing in front of a trio of today’s returning rivals. 5-Bourbon and Ginger has not hit the board in six straight races since winning on debut at Del Mar last summer, but in her defense, she’s been facing mostly stakes foes. A recent three-furlong blowout in :35 flat on March 1 catches the eye for a lucrative jockey-trainer combo.
Race #4: Selections: 4-6-3
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Grade 1 Beholder the last three out of four years and has an excellent chance to notch another victory with his short-priced favorite 5-year-old mare, 4-Splendora. The daughter of Audible has finished first or second in 10 of 11 career starts and has won four straight, including the BCFMS (G1) and, most recently, the G2 D. Wayne Lukas. She holds a triple-digit Beyer advantage over the rest of this overmatched field. Her stablemate 6-Nafisa has won three straight, notching her first graded stakes score in her most effort in the G3 La Canada. This talented Quality Road mare will need to improve significantly to topple her barn mate, however. The speedy 3-Dazzling Move ships in from South Florida for trainer Saffie Joseph and adds blinkers back on today. This mare has yet to find her top Saratoga form from last summer, however, when runner-up in the G2 Shuvee and Ogden Phipps (G1).
Race #5: Selections: 6-4-7
6-Jimmy Blue Jeans has won two straight one-mile turf routes for the Papaprodromou barn and looks like the commanding speed again today. The veteran 8-year-old gelding is an 8-time winner and looks well-poised to take his third straight. 4-Phosphorescence (Fr) finished second behind the top choice in last, the tepid beaten favorite, and now makes his third start of the form cycle today for trainer Michael McCarthy. The 10-year-old 7-Vantastic has shown no signs of slowing down or losing interest for conditioner Peter Eurton and has had plenty of time to recover from his solid runner-up effort back on Oct. 5 versus similar. Hernandez sticks.
Race #6: Selections: 9-4-2-3
A field of 10 well-bred sophomore colts lines up here in this MDSW dirt sprint, headed by a Baffert trio. 9-Memory is a $775k son of Uncle Mo who debuts with Lasix of a spirited work tab and lures barn’s go-to pilot for today’s unveiling. His stablemate, 4-Embry Show (by multiple stakes winner Modernist), has also trained swiftly for this afternoon’s debut, including a “best of 78” four-furlong gate drill in :47 flat on Valentine’s Day. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who is in town for the stakes action, picks up the mount on this colt, who looks live today. 2-Civil Liberty drops out of back-to-back Grade 1 events for Team O’Neill on the turnback in distance and has trained well off the five-month layoff. Lasix on. The barn also sends out firster 3-Decisive Win (a $600k purchase by Nyquist), who has trained like a good thing.
Race #7: Selections: 1-5-7-8
1-Mo Sasha rallied for second at 7-1 in an encouraging 6 ½-furlong turf debut on Jan. 31 for conditioner Michael McCarthy and looms a big threat with any normal second-out progression. This jockey-trainer combo is 3-for-13 (23%) with a positive ROI with second-time grass starters. The D’Amato-trained 5-Padel Addict (Ire) has not been out in seven months after finishing a beaten favorite, disappointing ninth in her first Stateside try last summer. This daughter of multiple Grade 1 winner Ten Sovereigns is likely better than she showed in her initial U.S. start. Trainer John Sadler sends out firsters 7-Everything Good and 8-Somerset West. The former is by Charlatan, who gets a strong 22% with 3-year-old & up debut runners. The ladder is by Kantharos—13% with debut runners and 14% with grass sprints.
Race #8: Selections: 4-3-6
4-Brant, the pricey $3 million son of Gun Runner, returns off a four-month layoff for Baffert off a solid work tab, having won two of three career tries, including a victory in the G1 Del Mar Futurity and a third in the BC Juvenile (G1) before hitting the sidelines. The colt’s Triple Crown aspirations begin here. 3-Secured Freedom finished a wide third in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in his most recent start on Feb. 7 and has worked well since that sharp try, including a snappy five furlongs in :59.3 on Feb. 28. The Tim Yakteen-trained colt is likely to move forward today with a cleaner ground-saving journey. 6-So Happy took the G2 San Vincente in start number two and now will look to stretch out today for conditioner Mark Glatt. The son of multiple G1-winning sprinter Runhappy is a question mark going this long.
Race #9: Selections: 2-3-4
The late-closing 2-Almendares (GB) makes his third try of the form cycle today for D’Amato and projects to get a live race flow to close into. The 6-year-old gelding was a wide trip third at 37-1 in the G1 PWC Turf International at Gulfstream in his most recent try on Jan. 24. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione is in for the stakes mount. 3-El Potente spurted away to a decisive 3 ¾-length win in the Thunder Road (G2) in his most recent turf effort for conditioner Dan Blacker, where he posted a field’s best last-out grass Beyer (97). The 7-year-old could face other speed today, however. 4-Gas Me Up has run well in both local starts over the Santa Anita sod, including a last-to-first win in the Grade 2 Joe Hernandez sprint two back. The gelded son of Hard Spun has been equally effective at today’s one-mile trip and has trained sharply since his recent runner-up finish to El Potente in the Thunder Road.
Race #10: Selections: 3-2-4
The unfortunate scratch of Skippylongstocking and Westwood leaves the door open for the Brad Cox-trained 3-Just a Touch as the logical choice. The 5-year-old son of Justify is still looking for his first graded-stakes score but has run well against top company the last several months, exiting a sharp second in the G3 Louisiana on Jan. 17 at Fairgrounds. He has fired back-to-back bullet drills in preparation for his first start in Southern California. Baffert’s 2-Getaway Car has yet to crack a 90 Beyer in 10 lifetime starts, but makes his second start off the bench today, and is the likely pacesetter today. The Curlin colt is helped by the scratch of Westwood. 4-Vodka Vodka has won three of his last four starts, proving to be equally effective on dirt and turf for trainer Aggie Ordonez.
Race #11: Selections: 1-7-5
Blinkers on 1-Wam Sun and Brew has run well in all four-career grass tries for trainer Mark Glatt and is a logical fit again today, having improved Beyer-wise with each subsequent start. The 4-year-old gelded son of Clubhouse Ride makes his third start of the form cycle today. The lightly raced 7-Infinitum just missed second in his first turf try on Feb. 14 for Hernandez and Glatt, and takes a significant drop today on the stretch out. The Grazen gelding has hit the board in all three lifetime tries. 5-Minister Shane goes two sprints to a route this afternoon for trainer Carla Gaines, exiting a mild rallying third on Jan. 16. A pair of runners have returned to win from that turf sprint event
