Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Brooklyn Blonde (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 6-4-5
6-Tiyara rallied up the fence for an impressive 9-1 upset on debut for Kimura and McCarthy, and now returns protected in start number two. The daughter of American Pharoah is capable of repeating and is the filly to beat with the potential of improving upon that top (69) grass Beyer. Trainer Doug O’Neill sends out a pair of fillies–4-Donde Esta Jefe and 5-Bear’s Board. The former goes two sprints to a route and makes her grass debut. She’s by Pavel, who gets 15% with turf routers. The latter has already proven she can route, exiting a one-mile maiden score on Jan. 11. However, her turf pedigree is a bit more suspect.
Race #2: Selections: 5-3-2
5-Brooklyn Blonde jumped 23 points on the Beyer scale from start one to two with a much-improved second on Feb. 7 for conditioner Michael McCarthy. The sophomore daughter of Gun Runner figures to be tough to overhaul, making her second try off the six-month layoff. Her stablemate 3-Mass is a $610k Fasig Tipton purchase by Not This Time, who gets 15% with 3-year-old & up debut runners and 18% with dirt routers. She debuts with Lasix and has trained smartly for today’s unveiling. The Leonard Powell-trained 2-Wolf Hill is a logical fit, having hit the board in all four career tries, including three runner-up finishes. The Upstart filly has improved Beyer-wise in each subsequent start.
Race #3: Selections: 5-4-3
5-Thirsty Rebel goes turf to dirt and drops out of the San Vincente (G2) into this softer spot this afternoon for Team O’Neill. The 3-year-old colt did little running in his lone grass try (the Speakeasy S.) last October but deserves another chance over the surface, having trained well on the local synthetic course. Recent grass sprint maiden winner 4-Romantic Ride has run well in all three lifetime starts for trainer Vladimir Cerin and looks well-placed for his first crack against winners. 3-Maker and Sons is an interesting shipper for trainer Paula Capestro. The Stanford 3-year-old makes his first try as a gelding and off the last October claim at Keeneland. He’s been training swiftly over at San Luis Rey for today’s initial try in Southern California,
Race #4: Selections: 2-3-7
2-Tiger Whitworth ran well in defeat when finishing fourth when dropped to this $20,000 maiden claiming level on Feb. 1 and deserves another chance to break through in career try number six. Red-hot veteran pilot Espinoza gets the return mount for conditioner Steve Knapp. 3-Ottis Betts just missed the place spot when finishing in front of the top choice on debut in last and now adds Lasix for start number two. The Sir Prancealot colt is a big threat today, given any normal second-out progression under conditioner Marcia Stortz. 7-Fighting Thunder has not been out in four months for trainer Craig Lewis after finishing a well-beaten ninth on debut. That Oct. 24 race was pretty salty, however, producing four next-out winners. Lasix on.
Race #5: Selections: 2-4-6
2-Bolt Zapper (by Bolt d’Oro) returns off an 11-month layoff after posting a 16-1 upset maiden win last March. The gelding has trained steadily since that last win, and his lone grass try on debut is a toss, after breaking slowly and losing all realistic chance. The 5-year-old gelding is a solid gate-to-wire threat with an alert break. And, more importantly, the price will be right. 4-Proudly Hailed (GB) exits back-to-back runner-up grass sprint finishes and now makes his first start for new conditioner Doug O’Neill, dropping out of a starter allowance. 6-A Day to Remember finished third behind Proudly Hailed in the Jan. 24 short field as the favorite, and now makes his second start off the six-month layoff. The Glatt-trained gelding has only been off the board once in six career tries, and has consistently posted some of the fastest turf Beyers in the field.
Race #6: Selections: 8-5-4
8-Elsa Dutton returns from an eight-month layoff at a career-low maiden claiming level for new conditioner Steve Knapp. This 4-year-old filly finished second against better when last seen last June and has been training steadily for today’s return to action. She gets the tepid vote. 5-East Boca Kibbutz is a logical contender for trainer Ron Ellis, exiting back-to-back seconds as the beaten favorite in both sprint dirt tries in January. The 5-year-old mare makes her third start of the form cycle today. 4-Miss Hot and Cold goes turf to dirt, on the class drop, after finishing seventh on debut last March. She should relish the turnback in distance and the surface switch (First Samurai-16% sprint runners).
Race #7: Selections: 5-7-6
5-Ghostess is a potential bounce-back candidate for trainer Tim Yakteen after a troubled trip in last, when facing a trio of today’s returning rivals. The 5-year-old mare steadied and bobbled into the first turn and never really picked up her feet thereafter, finishing an outrun ninth. Two-back, she finished second to 7-Holly Goquickly and next-out winner Happyasaclam. Holly is a late-closing type who is at the mercy of the pace. She made up a ton of ground late from a tough outside post, stuck behind a sluggish pace, and now makes her second try off a seven-month layoff. 6-Global Consort is a 10-start maiden that shortens up to a mile today off a recent fourth-place effort on Jan. 18, when finishing behind both Angelica Bay and Holly Goquickly. The 4-year-old filly projects to get another upfront-pressing trip.
Race #8: Selections: 7-9-3
A beaten favorite in the last pair, 7-Miss Practical has hit the board in four of five career tries for trainer Carla Gaines, exiting back-to-back seconds in her last two main track sprint starts. A projected swift TimeformUS race flow makes this 4-year-old filly the top choice this afternoon, switching to jockey Florent Geroux. 9-Thirsty Trickster drew off to a 5 ½-length dominant win on Jan. 24 for Mullins, but only defeated three other rivals. The 4-year-old filly has finished first or second in nine of 13 lifetime starts, however. 3-Clubhouse Bride was shuffled back and then re-rallied when rounding out the superfecta late behind the top choice on Feb. 1. This mare’s Beyers have increased in each of her last three subsequent starts, and is another who should benefit from a swift early pace.
Race #9: Selections: 5-8-2
The Mike Puype-trained 5-Sneaking Candy stretches back out in his second start off the extended layoff and lands in a pace-less nightcap as the likely controlling speed. The 6-year-old gelding by Into Mischief broke his maiden going one mile over this course. 8-Call Me Sir shortens up and drops out of the Jan. 17 Turf Classic S. into this softer spot today for Glatt and Kimura. The 4-year-old gelding has never been off the board in all four one-mile tries, as evidenced by his 4-1-1-2 mark. The other Glatt gelding, 2-Mysterious Husband, has not been out in a year, but showed a ton of ability in most of his route grass tries and has trained steadily since his maiden-breaking score at this distance and this course before hitting the sidelines. This barn is 4-for-18 (22%) with a positive ROI with horses returning off >180 days, routing on grass, at Santa Anita.
