Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Detain (Race 8)
Race #1: Selections: 5-6-1
The 6-time winning 5-Tigerhon (Fr) was the game-winner on May 17 against a pair of returning rivals (including Central Dispatch) and owns the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (82). The veteran 8-year-old gelding has strung wins together in the past. 6-Central Dispatch flashed speed and tired for second behind Tigerhon off the two-month mini-freshening, and figures for another upfront-pressing trip. Outrun in the last two starts, 1-Special Club is reunited with winning rider Juan Hernandez this afternoon and may get a similar trip to the one he had over the winter.
Race #2: Selections: 5-2-3
5-Romantic Ride just missed by a nose when moved back to dirt on May 3 when beaten by 26-1 outsider Maker and Sons. The Cerin charge owns the field’s best last-out Beyer (76) and switches to Rosario off that top try. The sophomore colt followed up that last effort with a sizzling four-furlong drill in :47 flat on May 31. 2-Tommy Norris returns to dirt off the quick turnaround for trainer Librado Barocio and appears to be a serious gate-to-wire threat this afternoon. 3-Courtside Action snuck away to a strong upset 5 ½-length win on debut at 13-1 on April 30, and that race has already produced a next-out winner. The gelded son of Straight Fire earned a competitive (73) main track Beyer for that sharp effort and fits well for his first crack against winners
Race #3: Selections: 1-2-4
First off the claim, 1-Aloha Dreamin adds blinkers back on for his new connections and figures to be hustled along from the fence. Mullins is a strong 8-for-23 (35%) with newly acquired dirt sprinters the past five years. 2-Toulouse Detrac looked home-free on the front end before getting leg-weary late and settling for the runner-up spot in a short five-horse field May 8. The 2-for-21 mare fits well again, based on that last dirt Beyer (67). 4-Moonlit Courage was outrun in her last pair of grass-route tries but moves back to dirt this afternoon on a class drop, and this might be the right level to bounce back into form.
Race #4: Selections: 6-1-7
6-Gazon (GB) flashed good early zip off the 11-month layoff on May 9 before tiring to finish second and figures to be much tighter, second off the bench. Rosario takes over for Sadler and this lucrative jockey-trainer combo has scored with six of their last eight starts as of this writing. 1-Gregory’s Pride is winless at the distance and over the Santa Anita grass, but makes his third start off an extended break for D’Amato, with an improving Beyer pattern. 7-Travelin Show takes a key class drop today, exiting back-to-back starter allowance grass sprints into today’s $30k claiming tag. Hernandez hops back aboard the 5-year-old gelding.
Race #5: Selections: 6-5-2
6-Christa McAuliffe broke through in a big way in career try number six, scampering to an 8 ¾-length maiden romp on May 9, earning the field’s best last-out main-track Beyer (70). A repeat is well within reach, and Jaramillo sticks. A winner of two of her last three turf sprints, 5-A Great Shaking moves back to the main track for trainer Ryan Hanson and projects to get another favorable upfront-pressing trip. The daughter of Om has already proven she can handle dirt. A 4 ¼-length maiden winner on debut last November, 2-Dottie Hinson returns off the bench for trainer Andy Mathis off a steady worktab. This barn has strong stats with dirt sprint returnees >180 days going 4-for-13 (31%). The filly adds Lasix this afternoon and lures Rosario.
Race #6: Selections: 6-4-11
6-Dreamrider kicked away to an impressive 5-length maiden score on May 17, earning the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (74). Rosario takes over for Ayuso, who sticks with 4-Prime Artist (Fr). This gelding goes second off the claim for trainer Blaine Wright, exiting a recent third at this level on April 25 and fits well again. He’s probably best served sitting further back and then coming running late. Newly gelded 11-Gallatin has flashed good speed in back-to-back runner-up finishes for trainer Peter Miller but must now negotiate a tough outside draw. The Authentic 3-year-old switches to Hernandez today and may still be able to work out a favorable trip.
Race #7: Selections: 4-6-3-1
4-Sir Davis (by Justify) was no match for runaway return winner Father Ted on debut when on May 8 but figures to be tough for team Baffert in career try number two. The $450k Keeneland purchase switches to the barn’s go-to pilot, Juan Hernandez, and has worked three times since his unveiling. His stablemate 6-Newton is a $975k Fasig-Tipton sale purchase and a son of Munnings who arrives on the scene with the barn’s typical flashy a.m. drills. 3-Roast is a $725k son of Practical Joke, who gets an average 11% with his 3-year-old-and-up debuting prodigy. This colt debuts with Lasix and has shown ability in his a.m. drills. Rosario gets the call for what looks like a live firster. 1-Peace On Earth (by Blame) must negotiate the tricky rail draw for trainer Richard Mandella but has worked well for today’s unveiling and lures Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith, who has a pair of wins from eight debut sprint runners (25%) with a lofty $6.13 ROI for this barn.
Race #8: Selections: 3-1-2
Irish import 3-Detain (Ire) is the class of this field, finishing second in the Joel (G2) when last seen last fall and a close-up third in the Grade 1 Prix du Jockey Club back in June. The 4-year-old colt lures Hernandez off the bench for his first Stateside try, and the McCarthy barn knows how to get one ready to fire fresh. The Richard Baltas-trained 1-Henry Adams (Ire) rallied for the place spot when facing several of these on May 1 and can improve upon that effort, second off the bench. He figures for a ground-saving trip from the fence and has the best late pace figure in the field. The stakes-winning 2-Scipio hasn’t been out in eight months for trainer Richard Baltas but adds Lasix and blinkers this afternoon off a steady work tab and is 2-for-3 over the Santa Anita sod.
Race #9: Selections: 2-7-9
2-R Danny Boy is a logical win candidate off his back-to-back seconds at this level and paired up (54) main-track Beyers. The 4-year-old gelding fired a sharp three-furlong bullet on May 30, indicating he remains super sharp. Class dropping 7-Duke of Orleans is a Delta Downs shipper making his first start for new connections off the seven-month hiatus. The Grazen gelding adds blinkers and lures Rosario off the bench. 9-Big Notion takes a sizable class plunge from a $50k maiden claimer to today’s $12,500 level while making the third start of the form cycle. Improvement likely.
Race #10: Selections: 9-7-12
9-Hardtobebetternow drops in for a first-time tag off the 3 ½-month layoff for trainer Tim Yakteen, having hit the board in four of five lifetime starts against tougher Maiden Special Weight types. The gelded son of Hard Spun switches to Rosario in the Sunday nightcap, and this looks like the break-through spot at likely short number. 7-Non Domicile flashed improved speed before tiring to fourth off the long seven-month layoff on May 15 for the Papaprodromou barn, when facing a trio of today’s returning rivals. The 4-year-old gelding figures to improve second off the bench and second try at today’s reduced $50k maiden claiming level. 12-Doing Time is stuck on the AEs and needs to draw in, but if he does, he merits a strong look at the class drop and a substantial jockey upgrade to Juan Hernandez.
