Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 6-The Giants Candy (Race 2)
Race #1: There’s nearly a 90% chance of rain Friday evening into Saturday afternoon, putting the three scheduled turf events (which include two graded stakes) in jeopardy of being switched to the main track. Multiple grade 2 winner 4-Forbidden Kingdom returns off a seven-month freshening for trainer Richard Mandella having made all but one of his starts over dirt. The 4-year-old colt has trained well for today’s return and figures to be the one to beat with Prat on dirt or turf. 10-Turn On The Jets (Ire) has run well in both tries over the downhill course, and Hernandez lands here for D’Amato when seemingly having a few other options. 1-Lucky Score ran well to finish seventh (beaten less than three lengths) despite traffic issues at 50-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Mile in his first Southern California start for conditioner Mark Casse and figures to appreciate today’s turnback.
Selections: 4-10-1
Race #2: 6-The Giants Candy flashed speed and tired in his first start in six months on Dec. 3 when he dropped to this bottom $20k claiming level and is projected to be on or close to the lead again this afternoon. The 5-year-old gelding is bred to handle an off-track. 2-King Zog makes career start number 13 this afternoon and is tough to back with much confidence on the win-end, having finished second six times. He was a 4-5 beaten favorite in his most recent try at Los Al two weeks ago. 4-Grand Tiger moves back to the main track on the class drop and finished a solid third two-back over this course against better.
Selections: 6-2-4
Race #3: 1-Lakota Spirit steps up off solid N1X score Nov. 26, going one mile at Del Mar and projects to sit another favorable journey with Hernadez back aboard. The additional eighth of a mile should be a non-issue for the Curlin colt who has been effective on both dirt and grass. 6-Yerwanthere (Ire) makes her third start off the bench this afternoon while exiting a career-best Beyer (85) with a recent runner-up finish in the Kathryn Crosby Stakes on Nov. 11. 5-Oakhurst has been somewhat of a disappointment in the last three efforts but returns to winning distance this afternoon and reunites with Prat.
Selections: 1-6-5
Race #4: A beaten favorite in last pair 3-Good Juju makes second start off the Peter Eurton claim and projects to be on or close to the lead with Hernandez back for the return ride. This barn is 3 for 9 (33%) the past 3 years with this claiming angle at Santa Anita. 2-Big Buzz exits back-to-back runner-up finishes against similar; he makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon and has run par for this class level in two of his last three starts. 5-Zimba Warrior is a multiple winner over the track and distance and exits the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (82).
Selections: 3-2-5
Race #5: 3–Lamporghini was a much-improved second on the stretch-out and switch to turf on Nov. 23 for team O’Neill and now makes the all-important third career start this afternoon. This juvenile filly is a strong gate-to-wire threat this afternoon. 2-Quick Kate finished a fast-closing second in her initial sprint start on Dec. 1, and her breeding suggests a stretch-out to one mile is within reach. 6-O K Rose finished second behind Lamporghini in her most recent effort and is a logical fit once again.
Selections: 3-2-6
Race #6: 3-Hondo Crouch adds blinkers while exiting a career-best Beyer (81) on Nov. 10 for trainer Mark Glatt and projects to be on or close to the lead today with the new equipment change in place. 4-Dual Threat showed very little in his last two starts, but those efforts came on synthetic and turf. The Bob Hess-trained 4-year-old gelding is back on dirt today for Dettori and is proven at this mile trip. 1-Del Mar Jerry also returns to his preferred dirt footing this afternoon after three subpar grass efforts for McCarthy. The lightly raced 3-year-old gelding broke his Maiden over this track in his May 5 debut.
Selections: 3-4-1
Race #7: This wide-open Maiden Claiming 5 ½-furlong sprint is a good spot to try a new shooter. 10-Polis is by Kantharos, who gets an average of 14% with his juvenile debuting prodigy and makes his initial start for trainer Tim Yakteen, who is a solid 4 for 17 (24%) with a $4.47 ROI the past 5 years at Santa Anita with Maiden Claiming first time starters. The gelding gets in light and is nicely drawn outside. 1-Mr. Chivas drops in for a first-time tag today while making his second start off the bench for conditioner Steve Knapp. 11-Sunset Storm flashed speed and tired when dueling on the front end in a well-bet Dec. 1 Los Al debut and was snagged for the $32,000 purchase price. This barn has solid stats with new acquisitions.
Selections: 10-1-11
Race #8: 2-Antibes was a wide third against a handful of the same runners on Nov. 19 on the stretch-out and now switches to Hernandez this afternoon while on the improve. The 3-year-old gelding can perhaps turn the tables on 5-Ghostly Act, who has five runner-up finishes from ten starts and exits a career-best Beyer for low-profile connections. 8-Be Punctual returns off a seven-month freshening with the addition of blinkers off an improving Beyer pattern. The 3-year-old gelding drops back in against MDSW types after the May 28 stakes attempt when finishing a decent fourth after a tardy beginning.
Selections: 2-5-8
Race #9: 6-Buck Owens is 1 for 16 but drops down to a career-low claiming tag this afternoon on the turnback and should get a live race flow to close into. The Grazen gelding has run well over this course and would likely relish a wet surface. 10-Tenth Street Don didn’t have the best of starts on Nov. 26 when exiting the same race as the top choice and then raced wide throughout when finishing fifth, beaten less than four lengths. The gelding makes his second start off the bench today and was a back-to-back winner over this course two and three-back. 12-Lansdowne (GB) is another taking a significant class plunge this afternoon and should fall into a decent trip off the initial pace setters.
Selections: 6-10-12
