Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Beef Winslow (Race 1)
Race #1: 5-Beef Winslow holds a double Beyer advantage off his last pair of downhill sprint tries that resulted in a win and runner-up finish on Feb. 15 for trainer Mark Glatt. The 4-year-old gelding is likely to sit a favorable stalking trip just off the front-runners. 4-Sharp Aza Tack has won two straight and now makes the first start off the Steve Knapp claim, exiting a victory over the straight turf course on March 17. This barn is 5 for 20 (25%) with turf sprint recent acquisitions the past two years. 6-Mas Rapido (GB) has run well in all four downhill turf sprint tries for conditioner Bob Hess and was third to top choice when last seen in the after-mentioned Feb. 15 event.
Selections: 5-4-6
Race #2: A lot of different directions one could go in this competitive $50k maiden Claiming sprint for fillies and mares. The speedy 3-Collectively has flashed good early zip in the last pair of efforts against straight Maiden Special Weight types and is eligible to carry her excellent gate speed a lot further on the class drop. Tepid choice. 2-Yellow Sun Dress goes dirt to turf in career start number two while returning off a year layoff for trainer Mark Glatt. The 3-year-old filly is by multiple grade 1 winner Karakontie (Jpn) but drops in for a first-time tag off the extended absence. Mixed feelings. 1-Sabres makes her second start off the bench today for Team O’Neill on the drop into Maiden Claimers and is likely to move forward off her seventh-place finish with a class plunge and move inside to the rail.
Selections: 3-2-1
Race #3: A mile may be a tad further than 2-Fast Chaz wants to go, but the move to dirt is a positive for this filly, who is bred to handle the main track. This jockey-trainer combo is a strong 5 for 18 (28%), with turf to dirt runners at Santa Anita for the past five years. 3-Duran makes the all-important third start off the bench today for trainer Michael McCarthy, exiting a wide third-place finish behind Normandy Landing on March 24. He’s likely to get a better break today and perhaps turn the tables on his main rival. 1-Normandy Landing has improved with each subsequent start for Baffert and co-tops the field’s best last-out Beyer (79).
Selections: 2-3-1
Race #4: 2-Western Grit hasn’t been out in three months but is super quick from the gate and finished second at this level when last seen back on Jan. 13. The Ryan Hanson-trained gelding shows a sharp “best of 41” four-furlong bullet drill on April 14 in preparation for today’s return try. 6-Motivating Force was a disappointing beaten favorite fifth on March 24 and now tries sprinting for Team Miller on the cutback. The 3-year-old gelding puts blinkers back on and could show solid improvement with plenty of “bottom” gained from several route attempts. 1-Lucky N Smart is by Vronsky debuting with Lasix for a jockey-trainer combo that has teamed up to win a pair of turf sprint debuts from limited opportunities. The gelding need not be much to compete against this soft MDSW group.
Selections: 2-6-1
Race #5: 5-Fifty Cinco steps up off a sharp win on March 3 when going gate-to-wire and earning a career-best (70) Beyer speed figure. The 4-year-old gelding might be able to sit just of the flank of Soul of Midnight and get first run on the race closers. First off the claim 2-Soul of Midnight stretches out with plenty of early zip and will likely try and bottom out this field. This barn is only 1 for 27 with recent acquisitions in the past 5 years, however. 4-Tiz Tok is a late stretch threat if the top pair hook up early, exiting a runner-up finish to a blowout winner on March 10.
Selections: 5-2-4
Race #6: 4-Moon Ice makes the first start off a seven-month freshening for a new barn and has typically run well fresh, as indicated by his two runner-up efforts off layoff lines. The blinkers come off today and he’s put together some snappy a.m. drills leading up to today’s return to grass. 8-Antibes is a logical threat off a recent second-place sprint try where he earned the field’s best last-out turf Beyer. A similar performance makes him the one to beat for trainer Carla Gaines. It’s not like he hasn’t had his fair share of chances, however, making start number nine this afternoon. 7-Ghostly Act makes career start number 14 today but has hit the board in 8 of those 13 tries, including ITM finishes in his last six consecutive races. He’ll likely need a drop into Maiden claimers to finally break through, but he must be included in all the underneath vertical exotics.
Selections: 4-8-7
Race #7: The lightly raced 2-Judge Millerexits a powerful 11-length runaway victory on Feb. 24 when stretching out around two turns, earning an imposing (105) Beyer speed figure for conditioner Mark Glatt. The son of Curlin steps up into graded stakes action with plenty of upside. 3-Mixto exits three consecutive (95) Beyers and drops out of the grade 1 Santa Anita Derby into this softer spot for Team O’Neill. The colt removes the blinkers today, is proven around two turns, and is battle-tested. The grade 3 winning 5-Mr Fisk has been freshened since his last fifth-place effort in the grade 2 San Pasqual on Jan. 27 and has trained forwardly since for Baffert. The late-closing Arrogate colt will be the likely beneficiary of a contested early pace.
Selections: 2-3-5
Race #8: The undefeated multi-stakes winning 3-Medoro has seen her Beyers improve with each subsequent start and is heavily favored to win her fourth straight for conditioner Peter Eurton. The daughter of Honor Code continues to train well in her morning drills and should have little difficulty negotiating another eighth of a mile. The speedy 4-Lamporghini has been first or second in five of six career tries and is a serious gate-to-wire threat, making her stakes debut. She’ll be on the engine with Maldonado. A Maiden winner over the synthetic footing, 1-Shiloh’s Mistress makes her turf debut this afternoon for trainer Michael McCarthy off a well-beaten fifth-place dirt try in the grade 3 Santa Ysabel. She picks up a top turf pilot and can improve.
Selections: 3-4-1
Race #9: 1-Hard to Figure has trained lights-out for Baffert exiting back-to-back five-furlong bullet drills and will likely get a favorable trip from the rail with the ability to either press the pace or sit. A chance for a mild upset. 3-Thorne House returns off a nearly a-year layoff for trainer Dean Pederson but has trained extremely well for today’s comeback effort and has proven to be equally effective on dirt and turf. Baffert’s other colt 7-Fifth Street, will likely give Man O Rose some difficulty challenging for the early lead and not allowing that gelding to dictate the fractions. He was a solid second off the seven-month layoff, is lightly raced, and has some upside. The son of Quality Road should set things up nicely for stablemate and our top choice.
Selections: 1-3-7
Race #10: The lone 3-year-old 1-Better Than Gold goes second time Lasix and turf for trainer Gary Mandella, while making his third start off the bench. He drops in class for this and showed decent speed in the first grass route try on March 29 when he was just edged for the place and show spot. The son of Nyquist has a ton of upside. 3-Maltese Falcon (Ire) was boxed through the stretch run in the most recent start on March 17 when never getting a clear running path late. The 4-year-old gelding has hit the board in the last three starts at this level but remains 0 for 10 over the Santa Anita turf course. 9-Calm Sea finished second at this level with a solid up-front performance in the after-mentioned March 17 event and will be winging it again on the front end.
Selections: 1-3-9
