Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 8-Tiger of the Sea (Race 1)
Race #1: Selections: 8-7-6
A beaten odds-on favorite in the last when stumbling badly at the break, 8-Tiger of the Sea moves back to the turf this afternoon for trainer Brian Koriner and has run well in all three prior grass sprint starts. She deserves another chance to get it done in the Sunday opener with a likely upfront pressing trip. 7-All in the Game moves back to turf off a much-improved third on dirt Nov. 28 when flashing speed, reaching the front and surrendering late. The 4-year-old daughter of Grazen had several issues in her grass debut and can improve again, returning to that surface for conditioner Craig Lewis. 6-Apple Pie spotted the field about a length after breaking slowly on debut before finishing up in fifth on Nov. 7 when facing several of these. This barn has above-average stats with second-time turf starters, and improvement is likely.
Race #2: Selections: 6-4-5
Class dropping 6-Damazio has not been out in eight months for Mullins but is proven off the layoff, and this barn is a sharp 5 for 15 (33%) with a positive ROI ($2.50) with dirt horses returning >180 days. The 7-year-old gelding projects to get a live race flow to close into. 4-Mighty Kai makes his second start off the bench today, exiting a wide trip fourth in last, drops in class, and has run well over the Santa Anita main track. Hernandez climbs back aboard. 5-Mongolian Max goes second off the claim for trainer Paul Aguirre and returns to Santa Anita, where he registered both his career wins.
Race #3: Selections: 5-6-2
The lightly raced 5-Our Consigliere shortens back up to a sprint this afternoon on the class drop and mini-freshening for conditioner Leonard Powell. This gelded son of Street Boss has posted competitive dirt sprint figures at this level in the past (above par) and is likely to come out firing. 6-Ballyhooligan finished an even fifth in his first crack against winners on Dec. 29 after a dominating 12 ¾-length maiden win two back. The gelding drops in class today for the Papaprodromou barn, who is off to a fast start. 2-Hondo Crouch has not been out in over 400 days for Glatt, but has been training steadily for the long-awaited return to racing. This barn is a solid 11 for 45 (24%) with a $2.43 ROI with dirt sprint starters at SA returning off >180 days the past five years. However, he needs pace to run at.
Race #4: Selections: 6-5-1
6-Yours Sincerely (Ire) drops out of back-to-back Grade 3 tries for D’Amato, adds Lasix this afternoon, and should be rolling late on the turnback. The 3-year-old filly sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer. 5-Umbralle finished far behind the top choice in the Jimmy Durante (G3) on Nov. 29, but shortens back up to her preferred sprint trip this afternoon for Sadler and is reunited with winning pilot, Hector Berrios. Her stablemate, 1-Eva Lea, was a turf sprint winner at Del Mar on debut on Nov. 28 and has worked four times since that encouraging unveiling. The sophomore daughter of Grade 1 winner Gift Box figures to be sent along for an early position from the rail.
Race #5: Selections: 1-2-5
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Grade 3 Las Flores S. six times and has a pair entered this afternoon. His mare 1-Ooty (Arg) is a late threat, as the Argentina-bred seeks her first victory Stateside after a four-month freshening. She is a Group 1 winner in her home country and figures to be rolling late on the turnback with Hernandez taking over the riding assignment. 2-Thermal found the return to the Santa Anita main track to his liking for conditioner John Sadler when scampering away to a 3 ¾-length score and the field’s best last-out (93) Beyer going today’s six furlongs. The 5-year-old daughter of Nyquist will have some other speed to deal with this afternoon, however, and she is certainly no slam dunk. The lightly raced 5-Magnificat (by Omaha Beach) has been super sharp in all three starts for trainer Richard Mandella, winning back-to-back and just missing by a head on debut. She will need to work out a trip from the rail with Demuro.
Race #6: Selections: 7-8-1
The Chilean-bred 7-Gran Oriente (Chi) did little running at 115-1 in his first Stateside start in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1), but now drops into a far more realistic spot this afternoon for trainer Marcelo Polanco. The 5-year-old is a Group 1 winner in his home country and has trained exceptionally well over the Santa Anita main track, including a “best of 60” bullet five furlongs in :59.3 on Dec. 20. The ultra-consistent 8-Spycatcher shortens up to his preferred one-mile trip today (4-1-2-1) and has hit the board in an impressive 13 straight for trainer Mark Glatt. His stablemate 1-Watsonville is winless since the G2 Mathis Mile back in December 2023, but drops in for today’s $80k claiming tag and has run recent grass route Beyers that match up well here. The 6-year-old gelding figures to be sent along for an early position by Rispoli from the rail.
Race #7: Selections: 4-1-2
The Grade 3-placed 4-Our Moonlight is back on dirt after a disastrous turf attempt when last seen this summer for conditioner Dean Pederson. This barn has strong layoff stats, and the daughter of Tapit has run well in all three dirt efforts over this course. She figures to sit an ideal stalking trip today and take over late with winning pilot Tiago Pereira back in the saddle. 1-Shared Future is shortening back up to a sprint today, off back-to-back sharp tries at this level. The 5-time winning 7-year-old mare will need to work out a ground-saving journey from the rail, but owns the best Late Pace figure in the field. 2-Jensco has been plagued by layoffs throughout her career and was trounced when last seen on Sept. 5, but has trained well leading up to this afternoon and has run well enough off the bench in the past for Shirreffs to be considered a win threat today.
Race #8: Selections: 1-4-3
1-Queen Maxima is a downhill specialist for trainer Jeff Mullins with two wins and a second from three tries over the tricky layout. The multiple G3 winner has been freshened since his five-furlong stakes win back on Halloween and has worked well over the SA synthetic course since then. 4-Spiceybug drops out of the G1 Matriarch when a well-beaten ninth and last, but was a decisive winner over the downhill layout two-back with a (90) Beyer over a pair of today’s returning rivals and figures to fall into a favorable upfront pressing trip this afternoon. 3-Princesa Moche (Per) has won back-to-back grass tries at 19-1 and 17-1 for team O’Neill since switching to red-hot Demuro, including a win over this course two back. The 11-time winner is likely to get lost in the betting again today.
Race #9: Selections: 1-3-7
A tricky $32,000 maiden claiming dirt route for 3-year-old colts and geldings kicks off the $5 Late Double. 1-Kilmer was eliminated when tossing his head and his rider at the start on Nov. 7, when well-bet on the class drop and surface switch. The 3-year-old colt hasn’t worked particularly fast since that mishap, but the tote support perhaps suggests he has more to offer. Berrios back for the return mount.3-Saturday broke slowly from the rail in his five-furlong Aug. 22 grass debut and now drops in for the $32k tag in career try number two. The son of Ghostzapper adds Lasix today and is eligible to improve moving to dirt and stretching out. 7-Trail Blaze is a logical fit based on his last-out (52) Beyer runner-up finish, facing similar. The gelding weakened when trying two turns two-back, however, and routing may not be his preferred option.
Race #10: Selections: 8-6-4
The Sadler-trained 8-Yurak is the filly to beat in the Sunday nightcap off her closing second on debut behind next-out repeat stakes winner, Brave Deb. The pricey $950k daughter of Tapit has worked well in recent weeks and switches to Hernandez off the four-month freshening. Lasix on. 6-Struck By Her (Ire) makes her first Stateside start off the six-month layoff for new conditioner Phil D’Amato, who traditionally does well with these turf imports. This filly’s a.m. drills over the Santa Anita synthetic track have been solid. 4-Egyptian Mistress flashed speed and tired to finish sixth in her Oct. 24 turf unveiling for trainer Neil Drysdale, but can move forward today, switching to Hall of Famer, Mike Smith. She adds Lasix today, and this barn has solid second-out starts.
