Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 10-Red Hot (Race 6)
Race #1: Selections: 5-7-10-4
5-Warm Reception is a logical threat for conditioner Peter Miller based on a pair of seconds, while routing on the grass, from four career tries. Rispoli is back aboard for the return mount, and she finished in front of four of today’s returning rivals when last seen on Oct. 12. 7-Suntory Time has not been out in nine months and broke slowly in both local starts for Baltas, but showed late interest in both tries and may have matured and become more focused over the last several months for a good layoff barn. 10-Syntax needs to draw in stuck on the AE’s, but rallied for the place spot in a well-backed, promising Del Mar debut on Nov. 28 and now switches to grass on the stretch-out in start number two. The 3-year-old daughter of Pavel has enough grass pedigree on both sides to suggest that routing on turf is suitable and returned to fire a sharp five-furlong bullet drill on Dec. 23 at San Luis Rey. 4-Sasafran lost all realistic chance when jumping in the air and tossing her head at the start, when last seen back in early September, and then running in spots thereafter. This filly has a longshot look with a better break.
Race #2: Selections: 3-2-1
The speedy 3-Crypto Ride steps up in class off a sharp gate-to-wire score on Nov. 7 at Del Mar over a pair of next-out winners, including Resemblance, who is also entered back this afternoon. The 5-year-old gelding sports the field’s best last-out Beyer (80) and looks like a strong repeat candidate with similar run-and-gun tactics. 2-Big Juanito drops in class this afternoon, having faced considerably better in his last two starts for trainer Bob Hess. A multiple winner over the track and distance, 1-Contrary Chieftain is confidently moved up off the $5k Nov. 28 claim for trainer Librado Barocio, who is 8 for 30 (27%) with a $3.43 ROI the past five years with new barn acquisitions.
Race #3: Selections: 5-2-4
5-Plutarch gobbled up solid ground late and drew off to a convincing 4 ½-length grass maiden win over a bulky field for Baffert on Nov. 30 when dropped back down in class. The juvenile colt by Into Mischief steps back up into stakes competition after that impressive score, and the multiple graded-stakes placed juvenile looks primed for the repeat with Hernandez climbing back aboard. A winner of two of his last three turf route starts, including a runner-up at 58-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), 2-Stark Contrast is the deserving morning line favorite for trainer Michael McCarthy. The Caravaggio colt sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (86), proven at a mile, and has enough tactical early foot to stay within optimal striking range. 4-Unrivaled Time has won two straight after proving best in the G3 Cecil B. Demille over a trio of today’s returning rivals and is dangerous with another forward move.
Race #4: Selections: 9-5-2
9-Cherry Cider returns to the main track this afternoon for Baffert after a disappointing grass experiment in start number two when completely outrun on the stretch-out on Nov. 29. The juvenile daughter of Tiz the Law is eligible to bounce back today, after a solid near-miss second in her main track sprint debut back in mid-July on debut. 5-Red Cherry (by G1 winner Rock Your World) debuts for conditioner John Sadler off a spirited work tab. This barn is a solid 6 for 28 (21%) over the past five years with dirt sprint first-time starters at Santa Anita. Jaramillo lands the potential live mount. 2-Feisty Red Head is a pricey $650k daughter of Curlin from the Mark Glatt barn that has trained steadily for this afternoon’s unveiling. This jockey-trainer combo scored with two of their last three debut runners: So Happy (38-1; 11/22) and Formula Rossa (4-1;2/22).
Race #5: Selections: 7-5-2
East Coast invader 7-Gratefully is 3-for-3 to start her career, including a game nose win with a lofty (89) Beyer in her most recent try Oct. 26 at Aqueduct. This 4-year-old filly should prove tough in her first Southern California appearance if able to transform her top efforts out here. The addition of Rispoli is a positive sign. The blinkers come back on for 5-Bit’s Tiger Magic, who has only been off the board once in seven lifetime starts (7-4-1-1) for trainer Peter Miller and returns today off a 2 ½-month mini-freshening. 2-Donttellourwives was beaten by double-digits in both grass sprint tries, but the first race came on debut and the second in the G3 John. C. Harris back in late September. Both are forgiving efforts for the 4-year-old filly, who returns off the three-month freshening for trainer Leonard Powell, off a sharp work tab, and lures Hernandez off the bench.
Race #6: Selections: 10-1-9
10-Red Hot is by multiple Grade 1 winner Mitole (12% with juvenile firsters), debuting for trainer Luis Mendez off some solid a.m. drills over the local main track. The 2-year-old gelding lured Hernandez this afternoon, who has two wins and one second from three tries with firsters when teamed up with this barn. All indications are that he is live at first-asking. 1-My Bodacious Boy did not show much in his seventh-place debut try back on Oct. 5 but has trained well since then, including a “best of 53” four-furlong bullet in :47 flat on Dec. 7. He is eligible to move forward this afternoon for conditioner Tim Yakteen. 9-Tommy Norris flashed speed and tired when overmatched in the King Glorious S. three weeks ago, but now drops back down into the Maiden Special Weight ranks on the turnback as the most experienced juvenile in the field. He’ll likely try to wire this field again, but has surrendered the lead late in five of six starts.
Race #7: Selections: 1-5-3
The Grade 3 winning 1-Public Assembly just missed in the Red Carpet (G3) in his most recent try, Nov. 23, and could be sent along from the rail this afternoon for early position. The D’Amato-trained 4-year-old filly sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (91) and is a multiple winner over this grass course. 5-Paradise Lake finished third behind the top choice in the aforementioned Red Carpet, and this consistent gal has hit the board in eight of 10 lifetime starts for trainer Peter Eurton. The daughter of Uncle Mo makes her third start of the form cycle today, but may not get the pace she needs up front to be most effective. 3-Ima Joker has only one prior start against stakes competition, but has run consistently well against cheaper company and has enough tactical early foot to get involved from the get-go, and could land a piece of this at a general double-digit price.
Race #8: Selections: 3-8-5
The lightly raced 3-Voldemort ran a disappointing seventh as the odds-on favorite at Los Al four weeks ago, when returning off a nine-month layoff for Team Baffert. The $700k son of Good Magic is likely to bounce back today, second off the bench, after showing solid ability at the beginning of the year, which included a runner-up effort and (87) Beyer going long. 8-Del Mar Jerry is 6-for-15 lifetime, has good speed from the fence, and would be tough to overhaul if he can run back to the above-par 97 and 99 Beyers from two and three back. Baffert’s other entrant is the 4-year-old 5-Normandy Landing, who finished second off an extended break of 16 months on Dec. 5 at Los Al. He should also appreciate stretching back out to his winning maiden-breaking distance, and Hernandez lands here while seemingly having the choice of the pair.
Race #9: Selections: 3-2-6
A voided claim in last when dropped to this $50k maiden claiming level, 3-Lorenzo Bernini returns off the mini-freshening at that same level off a decent third (beaten less than three lengths) when finishing in front of a trio of today’s returning rivals. 2-Sweet Odyssey finished in front of the top choice in last with a field’s best (71) turf Beyer, and is a logical fit off that runner-up effort. 6-Fight Back makes career start number 14 this afternoon, but only his second try for a tag, and moves into the barn of Cerin Vladimir. The 4-year-old gelding was a close-up fourth against similar on Nov. 7 and is reunited with Hernandez.
