Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Early Encore (Race 4)
Race #1: Selections: 2-1-6
The speedy 2-A Great Shaking ran well at 16-1 when stepping up in class to face winners on April 19, and now shortens up from six panels to five furlongs. The Ryan Hanson-trained 3-year-old filly sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer and lands in a weak field as the commanding frontrunner. 1-Famous Forza ran well against similar back on March 1, finishing third (beaten less than a length) and now shortens back up to a sprint off nearly a three-month freshening. 6-Tiny Prancer returns after more than a year’s layoff with a steady but uninspiring work tab. The 5-year-old’s first three efforts on turf weren’t terrible.
Race #2: Selections: 4-6-1
4-Bessie Coleman finished a solid runner-up when getting the best of a pair of today’s returning rivals for trainer Steve Miyadi on April 24 and looks quick enough to clear this field early on. Second off of the claim, 6-Elsa Dutton was third behind the choice in last, earning a career-best Beyer, and came back to fire a “best of 62” four-furlong bullet in :47 flat on May 15. This lucrative jockey-trainer combo is 11-for-31 (35%) the past three years. A beaten favorite in last, 1-Cloudy Women goes turf to dirt off the Sergio Morfin April 30 claim, and this barn has had solid success (from a small sample) with this surface switch, combined with new acquisitions.
Race #3: Selections: 5-3-6
5-Falabella flashed good speed and ran well for second when making her first start at Santa Anita on April 30, and now goes first off the claim for conditioner Lorenzo Campuzano. This barn is a solid 3-for-13 (23%) with a $2.69 ROI with newly acquired purchases sprinting on dirt the past three years. The 5-year-old mare looks like a serious gate-to-wire threat with an alert break. The field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (69) goes to 3-Harney Lane, who has never strung wins together, but exits a sharp 3-length score against slightly cheaper on April 30 and may have another forward move forthcoming, third start of the current form cycle. 6-Legal Fiction has a good race, bad race pattern, and drops off the $10k April 24 Ryan Hanson claim when finishing a disappointing eleventh and last. Two back, the 4-year-old filly was a solid runner-up against considerably better in a short field.
Race #4: Selections: 4-5-1
The John Sadler-trained 4-Early Encore is by freshman sire Early Voting, who is off to a fast start, posting a (4-2-1-1) mark with juvenile debut runners, and this 2-year-old colt has shown solid early zip in his a.m. drills. The “best of 49” bullet for-furlong drill on May 11 in :47.1 certainly catches the eye, and he lures Rosario at first asking. The Steve Knapp-trained 5-King Kameha has something most of these colts don’t—prior racing experience. While no match for the race winner, he rallied for the runner-up spot on debut on May 1 and is likely to move forward with any normal second-out progression. 1-Keepmesane (by Grazen) must negotiate the tricky rail draw and shows only four published works. However, is sent out by Team O’Neil, who debuted 4 ½-furlong runaway debut winner He is No Lie last week off a similar limited work tab, and crushed rivals by eight lengths at 2-5.
Race #5: Selections: 5-6-2
A beaten favorite in the last three turf starts since his impressive maiden-breaking score back in January, 5-Kokosan figures for an upfront pressing trip with the stretch out to 1 1/8-miles in a race that’s come up light with early zip. The mark Glatt-trained 6-Rostovsky lost all chance in his most recent start on April 25 when breaking slowly, but is eligible for a strong rebound effort this afternoon, stretching out to his preferred distance. The gelding also gets a “key” jockey change to Jaramillo today, who is a strong 5-for-10 (50%) with a lofty $6.48 Roi with the barn’s grass runners. The late closing 2-Amplitude finished an even third behind Rostovsky when last seen back in March and now shows up as a first-time gelding off the mini-freshening. Not sure he’ll get the live pace he needs to be at his best for Sadler, but does switch to barn’s current go-to-pilot, Joe Risario.
Race #6: Selections: 1-6-8
Reddam Racing’s 1-Lease Instead (by G1 winner Pavel) debuts from the rail with Rosario off a mixed bag of a.m. drills, but is likely to be hustled along from the fence for early position for a barn that’s had good success with firsters at today’s 4 ½-furlong trip. The Jorge Periban-trained 6-Stanford Warrior (by Stanford/16% with juvenile debut runners) has trained well enough for today’s unveiling and lures Jaramillo with a favorable outside draw. 8-Prime Listing is by Listing, who is 2-for-5 (40%) with 2-year-old debut runners for trainer Paula Capestro, and he’s nicely drawn outside. This barn is 0-for-20 with firsters the past five years, however.
Race #7: Selections: 1-2-4
A winner of two of his last three main track sprints, 1-Tommy Norris has never tried turf, but is by Stanford, who gets an above-average 16% with grass sprint runners, and the 3-year-old gelding figures to be hustled along by Maldonado from the fence. He could prove tough to reel in with an expedited start. 2-Matt At Five has run well in all three career tries for trainer Peter Miller and broke through with a 3 ¼-length grass maiden score on May 10, with a lofty (81) Beyer. He moves up to face the winner this afternoon, but is a solid repeat candidate with a similar effort. 4-Straight Buzzin goes dirt to turf on the class hike after defeating $32k claimers on April 25. He’s by Straight Fire (21% turf sprints) and should therefore successfully handle the surface switch. Hernandez sticks.
Race #8: Selections: 2-5-6
A voided claim and beaten runner-up odds-on favorite when last seen back on March 21, 2-Lorenzo Bernini has flashed speed and tired in his last several starts for the Papaprodromou barn. The 8-start maiden has trained steadily in recent weeks and lands in an especially weak $20k maiden claimer. One more chance. 5-King of Success goes turf to dirt, second try off the six-month layoff, and takes a sizable class drop from $50k to today’s $20,000 level on the stretch out. 6-Tab Walker returned after an extensive 550-day hiatus on April 17, finishing a well-beaten third for Miller behind repeat winner Soi Ngern. The 4-year-old gelding goes second time Lasix today, switches to Rosario on the stretch-out, and is likely to move forward.
Race #9: Selections: 1-4-7
1-Deep Blue rallied sharply from off the pace to win convincingly when switched back to turf off the Feb. 27 claim for conditioner Victor Garcia, and now steps up again in class looking for the repeat on the stretch out. Jaramillo sticks. 4-Catalina Cocktail was trounced and eased when walking off the course beaten a mile when clearly overmatched in the Santa Maria (G3) over the main track, but returns to grass and the level he was a competitive third two back. Rosario and Sadler have teamed up for two wins, two seconds, and two thirds since reuniting last week. 7-Syntax goes two sprints to a route and moves back to turf for trainer Librado Barocio and is reunited with winning pilot Juan Hernandez.
