Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-On the Whim (Race 6)
Race #1: Selections: 8-1-3
It’s Hollywood Gold Cup weekend, and the Saturday program has five Cal-bred stakes races.
8-Christel Clean finished an even fourth as the beaten tepid favorite when facing several of these on April 26, but makes her second try off the bench for the red-hot Rosario/Sadler jockey-trainer combo and is likely to move forward this afternoon. 1-Long Mayshe Reign has speed and the rail, exits a tiring fifth-place effort on April 17 versus similar, and now goes first off the Papaprodromou claim. This barn is 15-for-46 (33%) with a $3.17 ROI with turf acquisitions the past five years, and it’s this mare’s third try of the form cycle. The lightly raced 3-America’s Mark has been plagued by layoff lines for conditioner Mike Puype but takes a sizable class plunge today, returning off a three-month mini-freshening. The daughter of American Pharoah is reunited with winning pilot, Hector Berrios.
Race #2: Selections: 6-7-4
6-Free Closer is by G1 winner Pavel, who gets a solid 17% with his juvenile prodigy. This Michael McCarthy-trained filly has trained solidly for her unveiling and looks to have some ability. 7-Thirsty Caitlin flashed good early zip before tiring to second at 23-1 in an encouraging unveiling when getting the best of several of these on April 30, and is a logical fit with any normal second-out progression. This barn has only been clicking at 6% the past two years, however. 4-Lihue Princess should appreciate getting off the rail this afternoon in start number two after finishing an even fifth behind Thirsty Caitlin when attracting some decent tote support. Improvement likely.
Race #3: Selections: 5-7-1
The 8-time winner, 5-Big City Lights, is the only entrant that has posted multiple 100-plus career Beyers for trainer Richard Mandella and comes off a strong seven-furlong return try on May 2 (posting a 103-speed figure). This gritty 7-year-old has never been off the board over this course (8-6-1-1) and has proven to be even better at a shorter six-furlong trip. A sharp 1X turf sprint winner off the 13-month break, 7-Lonesome Stew has won five of his last six starts for trainer Mark Glatt, proving to be equally effective on dirt and turf. The Grazen gelding is quick enough to clear this field or has the ability to sit and pounce for Fresu, making him a dangerous threat to the top choice. 1-Pure Madness hasn’t been out since September 2024, but the 5-year-old showed a ton of ability before hitting the sidelines and picks an interesting competitive spot for his return. He looks fit despite the long break.
Race #4: Selections: 3-8-2-7
The 11-time winning 3-Grand Slam Smile finished a disappointing third in the April 25 Royal Heroine (G3), but this looks like a much easier spot for the talented multiple stakes winner to get back on track for conditioner Sean McCarthy, and she’ll likely take these gate-to-wire at short odds. 8-Om n Joy has had all of his success on dirt, but is dropping out of the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and Beholder Mile into this much softer spot this afternoon on the switch back to grass. The Aggie Ordonez-trained filly makes her third try off the bench today and can improve. 2-Prancingthruparis stretches back out after back-to-back stake thirds over the downhill course and is reunited with winning pilot Armando Ayuso as Hernandez lands on 7-Sunset Grazen. The ladder exits a career-best grass Beyer (83) after rallying sharply for the place spot at 21-1 off the year layoff.
Race #5: Selections: 5-2-6
Two sprints to a route, 5-Trojan Mafia plunges again in class ($50k to $12,500 claimers) for Mullins, exiting a well-beaten wide fifth on April 30. The Smiling Tiger gelding should be set for a career-best effort in today’s third start and meets a suspect group. 2-Mr Aiken rallied to round out the superfecta in an Ok sprint debut, May 3 at 22-1 for trainer Steve Sherman, and now stretches out for start number two. This barn has above-average second-time starter stats, and improvement is likely. 6-Stage Run stretches back out, second off the Tim McCanna claim.
Race #6: Selections: 2-7-4
The multiple stakes-winning 2-On the Whim finished second behind Flyover in the Sensational Star S., but this gelding is much better suited to today’s one-mile trip for trainer Dean Pederson, and should get the right setup while saving ground with today’s inside draw. The speedy 7-Flyover earned a field’s best last-out grass Beyer (96) with a convincing 3 ¼-length score in the aforementioned March 22 Sensational Star, but now stretches back out with other speed-types signed on and could prove vulnerable back at a mile. The Steve Knapp-trained 4-Prince Dolce gets a stiff class test here, but rallied sharply at 14-1 to take his most recent N3L allowance grass route and should get another live race flow to close into, sporting the best late pace figure in the field.
Race #7: Selections: 3-4-7
3-Run With Liberty won both one-mile turf tries by a combined six lengths for trainer Jeff Mullins and has the main track distance pedigree on her dam side to suggest that this sharp filly will handle two turns over dirt. 4-Mohaven trounced the Evening Jewel S. field by five lengths for John Sadler and now will look to extend that talent around two turns for her initial try routing. The daughter of Yaupon has worked five times since that last impressive score, and has never been worse than first or second in six lifetime starts. Reddam Racing’s 7-Troisieme Etoile (by I’ll Have Another) stretches out and tries dirt for Team O’Neill, pairing up bullet four-furlong synthetic drills. This 3-year-old has seen her grass Beyers move forward in each subsequent try and gets her fifth different rider for the two-turn dirt stakes debut.
Race #8: Selections: 3-1-4
The Smiling Tiger colt 3-He’s a Knockout is an undefeated 2-for-2 for trainer Carla Gaines and will now look to stretch out for his first stakes try. The talented 3-year-old looks primed for the threepeat, firing three sharp a.m. drills since his most recent allowance victory. The Grade 3 winning 1-Unrivaled Time adds blinkers off the three-month mini-freshening, and the new equipment could help him substantially today after not getting the best of trips when crowded in both pair of winter stakes tries. 4-Trump Era rallied strongly for the place spot behind the top choice when returning off an eight-month layoff and moved to the turf for conditioner Ryan Hanson. A logical fit if he can build upon that effort, and it looks like he should appreciate the additional real estate.
Race #9: Selections: 4-2-1
The lightly raced 4-King’s Ride goes two sprints to a route today for trainer Craig Lewis, exiting an odds-on beaten favorite third on May 3. The sophomore colt is reunited with maiden-winning rider Juan Hernandez. 2-Known Idea moves back to dirt, second off the claim, and has run well at today’s one-mile trip. The 5-year-old gelding figures to get a favorable upfront-pressing trip. 1-Cowboy Mike flashed speed and tired badly when eased in the stretch in his most recent try, but puts blinkers back on this afternoon, dropping from $50k to $20,000 claimers. The 6-year-old gelding can win this, however, if able to replicate the 85-86 main track Beyers two and three-back, which are above par for this reduced level.
Race #10: Selections: 9-1-5
9-Gaines finished in front of several of these on debut when flashing good speed and settling for the runner-up spot on April 4. The 3-year-old colt by Mo Forza stretches out in start number two for conditioner Carla Gaines and has trained well in the interim. 1-Robin Olds just missed in a blanket finish when disqualified from second to fourth for interference in the April 19 event that most of these colts and geldings exited from. This gray colt’s grass Beyers have improved with each subsequent start for D’Amato, and he figures to get a favorable ground-saving trip from the fence. 5-Oracle of Paradise finished a disappointing sixth behind Gaines when returning from a six-month hiatus for trainer Brian Koriner, but is eligible to improve today, going second-time Lasix and switching to Rosario.
