Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 3-Positive Times (Race 7)
Race #1: Selections: 5-2-1
5-Victorious Dream (Ire) makes career try number seven this afternoon, having hit the board in her last three Stateside tries for trainer Michael McCarthy. She just missed (in a blanket finish) in the Providencia S. on April 5, and now drops back down into the MDSW ranks looking for a breakthrough performance. 2-Fire Ban is an 11-start Maiden for conditioner Brian Koriner, who gets back to turf on the stretch-out, while making her third start of the form cycle. The 5-year-old mare gets jockey Joel Rosario as he returns to Southern California racing. The speedy 1-Kinzlee’scharisma stretches back out today, having run reasonably well in all four lifetime starts. She figures for another upfront-pressing trip with back-to-back rail draws.
Race #2: Selections: 3-4-5
3-Pocket Venus returns off the mini-freshening for trainer Mark Glatt, shortening up from seven panels to six furlongs. The filly was an even third behind repeat winner Jensco when last seen back in early March. She sports the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (72) and has trained ok in the interim. Tepid vote in a shaky race. 4-Lady Gambita goes turf to dirt for her third try in Southern California after flashing speed and tiring in both local tries. The 4-year-old filly might be set for a top effort today, returning to dirt as the likely pacesetter with Victor Espinoza. 5-Angel Baby returns to the main track where she was a maiden-breaking winner three back, and she trained well over at Los Al prior to that last subpar turf sprint try. Kimura takes over.
Race #3: Selections: 2-5-6
It took 11 tries, but 2-Just a Graze broke through with a game maiden turf victory on March 22 for trainer Mike Puype. The Grazen gelding doesn’t meet the saltiest group of winners today and figures for a favorable upfront-pressing journey. The Michael McCarthy-trained 5-Goodfella (Ire) was a beaten favorite, even third, when facing similar on April 5. The 1-for-18 6-year-old gelding lacks a winning desire, but is usually close and, with the right trip, can score against this suspect group. 6-Sand Bagger ran an Ok fifth with a competitive (79) turf Beyer when stepping up to face winners on April 25 and now drops in class off that try for trainer Gary Stute. This gelding has a good chance if he can replicate that figure, which is close to par for this class level.
Race #4: Selections: 5-4-3
5-Ryan’s Girl scampered away to an easy 7 ½-length score at 5-1 on the stretch out and class drop April 18, earning the field’s best last-out (80) dirt Beyer. The 4-year-old filly has never strung wins together in the past, but is a logical fit with anything resembling that last blowout score for trainer Genaro Vallejo. Kimura sticks. The 5-year-old mare 4-Dorie Miller is certainly more comfortable finishing underneath, evidenced by her 34-2-7-10 career mark, and is 0-for-10 at Santa Anita, but lands in a race projection that is expected to flatter her late closing kick. The lightly raced 3-Spotted Haze goes turf to dirt, making her second try off the nine-month layoff for the Mullins barn, and was a game winner against better when last seen over the Santa Anita main track.
Race #5: Selections: 3-4-1
A recent private purchase, 3-Matt At Five switches to grass off two solid sprint tries over the main track for new trainer Peter Miller, where he’s registered back-to-back seconds. The 3-year-old gelding is by Tamarando (15% with turf sprinters) and should handle the surface change successfully. He will be short odds to potentially break through in the all-important third career try off continued solid a.m. drills over at San Luis Rey. 4-De Facto is by Tiz the Law, who gets a solid 19% with 3-year-olds & up debuting prodigy and 15% with grass sprinters. The Brian Koriner barn is more-than-capable of winning at first asking, and the gelding lures Rosario with the addition of Lasix. His stablemate is 1-Confidence Man (by Stay Thirsty), who also debuts with Lasix and looks to negotiate the tricky rail draw off a steady worktab.
Race #6: Selections: 3-1-6
The veteran 10-year-old gelding 3-Windribbon is a 12-time winner, taking three of his last five tries for his connections, including his most recent try on April 19 at 4-5. A repeat is well within reach, switching to Kimura. 1-The Big Cheeseola goes second off the claim today, exiting a close-up fifth going 870 yards under the lights at Los Al. The gelding was a game winner at the bottom $5k claiming level two-back at Santa Anita, and has good speed from the rail. He will likely be hustled along by the apprentice for an early position. Claimed out of his last pair, 6-Alpine Thunder finished second behind The Big Cheeseola when last seen back on March 22, but fired a nice bullet four furlongs over at Los Al back on April 18, and has run competitive speed figures (60,66,63) for this level the last three starts.
Race #7: Selections: 3-5-2
3-Positive Times shortens back up in distance after flashing speed and tiring going one mile in his last pair of turf tries and drops in for a first-time tag this afternoon for conditioner Ryan Hanson. The 3-year-old colt is quick enough to clear this field early on with Maldonado and should therefore prove tough to reel in late with the class relief. 5-Big Notion hasn’t been out in nearly a year for trainer Steve Miyadi, but drops in for a first-time tag off the bench as a gelding, and this barn has solid stats (albeit from a small sample) with MDSW to MDCLM class droppers off >180 days—3-for-6 (50%) with a $2.90 ROI. On the board in five of six lifetime starts, 2-Proud Racer returns off an 11-month hiatus for the Miller barn, while making his initial grass try. The gelding has enough turf pedigree to suggest he’ll handle grass, and his last pair of drills over at San Luis Rey have picked up considerably.
Race #8: Selections: 2-1-7
The lightly raced stakes-winning 5-year-old 2-Private Gem has never been worse than first or second in five career starts for conditioner Mark Glatt and has been training steadily for today’s return to action. He should prove tough if ready to roll for an excellent layoff barn. 1-Mo Koko (by Mo Town) was a solid game 9-1 nose upset winner on debut April 4, earning a lofty (80) Beyer for trainer Librado Barocio. He’ll likely need to improve a few lengths to compete with this N1x field, but is potentially capable with any normal second-out progression. 7-Comedy Town gave away after battling on the front end to finish a well-beaten, disappointing fifth on April 4, but should appreciate getting off the rail and moving outside this afternoon. The 8-time winning gelding is likely to bounce back for the Papaprodromou barn.
Race #9: Selections: 9-4-5
A very competitive edition of the Siren Lure Stakes closes out the Sunday afternoon program. 9-Boss Sully has good gate speed, is nicely drawn outside, and usually runs extremely well off the bench, evidenced by his three victories off similar layoffs. The 5-time winner has run some of the swiftest turf sprint Beyers in this field for trainer Brian Koriner (despite never winning a stakes), and secures Rosario for his first stakes try since returning west. A series of speedy a.m. drills boosts confidence. The multiple graded stakes-placed 4-Zio Jo is back Stateside off the mini-freshening, exiting a well-beaten 12th in the 1351 Turf Sprint (G2) overseas for Team O’Neill. If that trip didn’t take too much out of him, he’s eligible to bounce back this afternoon with barn’s recent go-to pilot Jaramillo in the saddle. Often close, but yet to break through, 5-Friendly Confines returns off the 3 ½-month freshening, looking to secure his first stakes victory for trainer Richard Baltas. The son of Twirling Candy has good gate speed, has trained well in recent weeks, and usually fires fresh.
