Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 4-Midnight Cowgirl (Race 5)
Race #1: Selections: 7-4-6
7-Valiant Son ran exceptionally well on April 5, considering he was returning off a layoff of 500-plus days for conditioner Blaine Wright. The gelding sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (76), switches to jockey Juan Hernandez today, and came back to drill a sharp bullet three furlongs on May 3. The lightly raced 4-Gazon (GB) returns off an 11-month layoff for trainer John Sadler, off a sharp and steady worktab. A winner of two of three grass sprints before hitting the sidelines, the 5-year-old gelding figures for an upfront-pressing trip off the bench and picks up Jaramillo. 6-Tribal shortens up to a sprint this afternoon on the class drop for Team O’Neill after flashing speed and tiring in his last pair.
Race #2: Selections: 2-4-5
2-Mutt Dillin goes turf to dirt off the Steve Knapp claim and recent troubled trip eighth on April 19. This barn has above-average stats with newly acquired barn purchases, and this gelding figures to be this afternoon’s pacesetter with an alert break. He’s reunited with winning pilot, Armando Aguilar. 4-Precision (GB) has little dirt pedigree, but moves to the main track on the cutback off a series of average grass route tries. The gelding’s synthetic drills in the a.m. have been sharp, but not entirely convinced he’ll run as well over dirt. 5-Desert Kat drops from $32k claimers to today’s $25,000 level, exiting back-to-back thirds for the Papaprodromou barn.
Race #3: Selections: 5-6-1
5-Confidentiality flashed good early zip before surrendering late on a well-backed debut March 20, an effort that was surely not helped by the rider losing the crop. The 3-year-old filly removes the blinkers today, moving to turf, and has enough grass pedigree to successfully handle the surface switch and move forward in start number two. The Glatt barn has solid second-time starter stats. 6-High Society U was a bit disappointing in start number two when flashing speed and tiring without much resistance as the beaten favorite. Her debut try, however, was sharp, when finishing third (beaten two lengths), and she’ll likely bounce back this afternoon for trainer Jonathan Thomas. The Dialed In filly has worked three times since her last try and they’ve all been solid drills. 1-Copper Luna (by Practical Joke) debuts with Lasix for conditioner, Adam Kitchingman, and worked swiftly over at San Luis Rey for today’s unveiling.
Race #4: Selections: 1-2-5
1-Tom’s Star was overmatched in her most recent N3L turf allowance try, but drops back down on the surface switch, and was a winner of two straight prior to her latest flop. The 5-year-old mare figures to get another ground-saving, favorable journey from the fence. A beaten even-money favorite in the last, 2-Lil’s Coffee goes first off the claim for trainer Isidro Tamayo, making her second Southern California try since arriving from Turfway. Improvement likely for a more-than-capable barn. 5-Perfect Life threw in a clunker in her most recent try on April 18 when dismissed at 37-1, but her two efforts prior were a win and a runner-up finish with Armando Aguilar aboard. Any of those two one-mile efforts makes her a win candidate.
Race #5: Selections:4-3-1
The Ryan Hanson-trained 4-Midnight Cowgirl looks like the clear frontrunner this afternoon on the class drop, while making the third try of the form cycle. This filly has run well in all three tries against MDSW types and should prove tough to reel in late with a good break and aggressive gate pilot, Edwin Maldonado. 3-Humidity drops in for a first-time tag this afternoon on the turnback for trainer Paddy Gallagher off some decent efforts against considerably better. The 3-year-old daughter of Halladay figures to sit back and make a big move late with the best late pace figure in the field and switch to Berrios. Route to sprint 1-Baby Needs Shoes exits a career-best turf Beyer after dropping to this level on April 17 when flashing speed and tiring to third. A solid win threat again for Miller, back at the $50k maiden claiming level.
Race #6: Selections: 4-5-6
4-Zadra ran well on debut April 5 after flashing some solid early zip before tiring to third for trainer Wayne Baker. The daughter of Grade 1 winner Bodexpress earned a field’s best (65) main track Beyer with that effort and figures to be a handful with any normal second-out progression. One of two fillies from the Miyadi barn, 5-Christa McAuliffe goes turf to dirt in start number six, having finished second on both the grass and dirt. Unless one of the two firsters is live, the Grazen filly is a logical win threat based on her recent figures. 6-Very Smart (by Omaha Beach) showed little on debut when well-bet in a grass sprint last April and now makes her initial dirt try for the Eurton barn off a steady worktab. She’s nicely drawn outside.
Race #7: Selections: 8-1-3
In a race with a projected swift early live race flow, things should set up nicely for second off the bench 8-Sabertooth, who was making up some good ground late while wide off the long layoff for trainer Tim Yakteen, when facing several of these. The Grazen colt has run second in six of ten tries (with a win) but should relish today’s 1 1/8-mile trip. The veteran 8-year-old gelding 1-Jimmy Blue Jeans dueled with the leader before tiring to sixth on April 4 and now takes a slight class drop from $25k claimers to today’s $20,000 level. The 8-time winner moves inside to the rail this afternoon and figures to work out another favorable upfront-pressing journey for the Papaprodromou barn. Plagued by layoff lines, 3-Stlishlyacclaimed was a disappointing last of 11 when stretched out off a solid return upset win off an extended break, similar to what he did two years ago at Del Mar. It’s hard to gauge what gelding we’ll get this afternoon, but he retains Jaramillo and will be tough if able to repeat that (80) grass Beyer from two back.
Race #8: Selections: 6-1-3
Never worse than first or second in five of six career tries, 6-Magnify looks like a solid win threat at short odds, making the third start off the extended layoff for trainer Tim Yakteen. The Justify 5-year-old sports the field’s best last-out Beyer (95), which is above par for this class level. 1-Voldemort crashed and burned as the odds-on choice for Team Baffert when last seen back on March 8, when eased and walked off the course. An effort too bad to believe. The colt will likely rebound today off the mini-freshening with Hernandez back aboard. 3-Berlin Wall finished behind Magnify in the last pair, but should be making up some ground late from off the pace, if the expected live clip comes to fruition.
Race #9: Selections: 6-9-5
The Michael McCarthy-trained 6-Marjoram lost all chance when moved to turf to face winners on April 4 off a sloppy main track maiden score at Churchill last November. The Quality Road 3-year-old stumbled coming out of the gate, had to alter sharply to avoid a fallen runner, and despite all that, showed some run late. She’s lightly raced while stepping up in class for her first stakes try, but looks to have a world of talent. A winner of two of three since moving to turf, 9-Still Unwritten set blazing fractions and battled on gamely to the wire before getting passed late by both Mo ‘ Em Down and Will Happen, who are also entered back this afternoon. The stakes-winning 5-Light Won Up returns to Southern California off a fourth-place effort in the Limestone (G3) at Keeneland. She was a sharp 2 ¾-length winner over this course in the Sweet Life S. two-back and is dangerous with a similar trip and effort.
