Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Sentient Soon (Race 5)
Race #1: Selections: 4-2-3
Trainer Bob Baffert sends out a pair of colts, and both have trained well in the a.m., which is typical for this lucrative outfit. 4-Pecos River is a pricey $750k son of multiple Grade 1 winner McKinzie, who gets a below average 7% with his older debuting prodigy. This jockey-trainer combo scored with firster Mizumi ($13.20) last week. 2-Sir Davis is a $450k Keeneland purchase by Justify, who gets an average 13% with his 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy. The Mark Glatt-trained 3-Father Ted is the only colt in the field with prior racing experience, which is an obvious huge advantage. However, he hasn’t been out in 468 days after showing ability in both tries over this course, including a second on debut with a (84) Beyer. The 4-year-old colt’s morning drills have been solid.
Race #2: Selections: 5-1-2
The 8-year-old gelding 5-Code Duello has run well on both dirt and turf throughout his career and returns to Santa Anita off a beaten-favorite grass sprint second at 4-5 at Turf Paradise on April 15. A winner over this course four-back and ultra-consistent in recent tries, he figures for another forward trip, and drilled a nice bullet three furlongs over the synthetic track April 29. 1-Enterdadragon rallied well for the show spot at 25-1 when last seen back on March 28, and that event has produced three next-out winners. The Outwork gelding sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (83). 2-Wizard of Westwood has been disappointing in his last half dozen turf route tries (against arguably better) but is winless since November 2023. Perhaps the return to sprinting will wake up the slumping 6-year-old.
Race #3: Selections: 7-1-6
A $42,057 Pick Six carryover begins here. 7-Toulouse Detrac threw in the towel in her most recent six-furlong try, fading to seventh, but shortens back up to her winning distance from two-back, and figures to be tough to reel in late with an easier lead at the 5 ½-furlong trip. 1-Headstrong Ways was overmatched against N3L allowance types on turf when last seen back in late February, but gets back to dirt this afternoon on the class drop and mini-freshening for Baltas. Second off of the claim 6-Aloha Dreamin has hit the board in five of six career efforts and figures to get a favorable upfront-pressing trip with today’s outside draw.
Race #4: Selections: 2-1-5
2-Bear’s Board lost all chance on April 26 when stumbling badly at the start and racing wide thereafter. The 3-year-old daughter of Mastery deserves another crack at this $32k claiming level for Team O’Neill, who has been slumping (2-for-42) as of late. This jockey-trainer combo was red-hot in late February and March but has cooled off considerably this spring. 1-Eighties flashed speed and tired on April 24, but now drops from $50k to today’s $32,000 claiming level, while making her third start of the form cycle. She draws the advantageous rail and goes second-time Lasix and blinkers. Improvement likely. 5-Anywaythewindblows makes her third stateside try on the class drop, looking for improvement.
Race #5: Selections:2-3-7
The Jeff Bonde-trained 2-Sentient Soon is by multiple Grade 1 winner Dad’s Caps, who gets a solid 16% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. The filly has trained swiftly for this afternoon’s unveiling, including a nice-looking “best of 35” bullet four furlongs in :47 flat on May 1. 3-Buena Vida is by the freshman sire, multiple Grade 1 winner Life Is Good, who has started off with an impressive three winners from four starts. 7-Lahar has been training swiftly over at Los Al for today’s unveiling. She’s by Straight Fire, who is a sharp 7-for-32 (21%) with 2-year-old debut runners. This barn, however, is 0-for-20 with firsters over the past five years.
Race #6: Selections: 5-3-1
The stakes-winning 5-Start the Ride goes dirt to turf after being outrun in both the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) for trainer Dan Blacker. The Upstart sophomore doesn’t have a ton of grass pedigree to speak of, but adds Lasix and gets some massive class relief. 3-Allequin Summer rallied belatedly for the show spot on April 19 and now stretches back out of an improving Beyer pattern. 1-Beeblebrox finished a better-than-looks fourth when pinched back at the start when stepping up in class to face winners on April 25 and should be able to work out a favorable ground-saving journey from the rail.
Race #7: Selections: 5-4-8
Blinkers off 5-Danzig Til Dawn is a 10-start maiden that drops again after flashing speed and tiring late when making her initial dirt try on April 17. The 5-year-old mare lands in a weak field, and this looks like a now-or-never spot to find the winner’s circle. She’ll need to deal with the filly 4-Bitter Truth, who goes two sprints to a route off an improving Beyer pattern, and the daughter of Clubhouse Ride (16% dirt routes) should handle the two turns successfully. Her works are slow, but 8-Sky At Sunrise need not be much to compete with these at first asking. However, it’s tough to get behind a firster when the barn sports a 0-for-44 skid with debut runners the past five years. His sire, multiple Grade 1 winner Graydar, did win by 8 ½ lengths on debut.
Race #8: Selections: 5-7-8-11
5-Butterfly Beach makes her second start off the 10-month layoff for trainer Neil Drysdale, coming off a weakening fifth at 45-1 on April 2. The daughter of Dad’s Caps looks quick enough to clear this field early on, switching to Jaramillo, and is likely to show more today, second off the bench. 7-Jennys Wine Girl is an obvious fit, having finished on the board in five of six career efforts with the field’s swiftest grass Beyers, and drops back in for a tag this afternoon for Baltas. The Peter Miller-trained 8-Blame It On Abby returns from a seven-month layoff with a steady worktab over at San Luis Rey. Her lone turf try wasn’t all that impressive last August, but she adds Lasix today for a good layoff barn and has enough grass pedigree to indicate the surface should be fine. Her stablemate, 11-Baby Needs Shoes, is stuck on the AE’s but finished an improved third on the class drop on April 17. The filly surrendered a clear lead with pedestrian splits, but deserves a look, second try at this level, if she makes it to the post.
