Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 8-Falabella (Race 4)
Race #1: Selections: 6-2-1
A special Thursday afternoon (4:00 p.m. post) kicks off a 4-day Kentucky Derby race week at the Great Race Place.
There’s a $44,113 Pick Six Carryover beginning in race 4.
A turf winner two back, 6-Dea Matrona (Fr) got banged around and threw in the towel in her most recent effort back on Feb. 28 and has worked steadily since then for Baltas. The 5-year-old mare makes only her third start this campaign and switches to Fresu. The Miller-trained 2-Free and Humble is a logical threat, exiting a gate-to-wire turf route score over similar back on March 29, when returning off a nine-month freshening. 1-She’s Splendid moves back to turf after a subpar main track sixth-place finish on April 18, and is eligible to bounce back this afternoon, having finished a sharp runner-up going this one-mile trip on grass two back with a competitive 078) Beyer.
Race #2: Selections: 1-5-7
Trainer Steve Knapp sends out a pair of juvenile fillies in this main track 4 ½-furlong sprint. 1-Lihue Princess is by Grade 1 winner Audible and has trained steadily for this afternoon’s unveiling. This barn is 10-for-39 (26%) with a $2.68 ROI with dirt sprint debut runners at Santa Anita the past five years. Her stablemate, 5-Dream Quest, is by G1 winner Drain the Clock. Edwin Alvarez has three daughters by Stay Thirsty entered, who gets an ordinary 10% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. We’ll give the edge to 7-Pay One More Dream, who draws a cozy outside post. This barn, however, is only 1-or-38 with firsters (3%) the past five years.
Race #3: Selections: 2-4-3
2-Decapo moves inside with good positional early zip for conditioner John Sadler, and has trained sharply since last seen back on Feb. 21. The 4-year-old son of Mendelssohn co-tops the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (83). 4-Universal Sound ships in from Turfway Park off a good runner-up finish over the synthetic footing on March 28, and his lone try on turf was a troubled trip sixth at Churchill last June. The Uncle Mo gelding switches to top turf pilot Emisael Jaramillo and should be motoring home late if he takes to the Southern California turf course. 3-Grey’s Boy scampered away to a solid 2 ¼-length win on debut March 22 when ignored at 10-1 and looks well-placed for his first crack against winners. The gelding had a nice four-furlong drill on April 18.
Race #4: Selections: 8-6-4
The 5-time winning 8-Falabella ships in from Los Al off a series of recent sharp efforts and should be able to clear this field for trainer Jesus Uranga with a favorable outside draw. The 8-year-old mare 6-City Glitter finished third behind the top choice at 23-1 in her most recent 1,000-yard try. 4-Cee’s the Image is 0-for-7 at Santa Anita but drops back down to this $5k claiming level for only the second time in her career, and was an even fourth at this condition two back.
Race #5: Selections: 3-6-4
The speedy 3-Preem shortens up to six panels for the first time this afternoon after flashing her customary early zip and tiring in her last three one-mile attempts. The Michael McCarthy-trained filly was a beaten tepid favorite in that last third-place try, makes her third start of the form cycle today, and should appreciate the turnback. 6-Deep Blue goes dirt to turf off the mini-freshening, and steps up in class off the Feb. 27 $10k claim for conditioner Victor Garcia. The 4-year-old filly was a wide fourth in her lone grass try over the winter and should come out firing based on encouraging recent a.m. drills. 4-Cloudy Women is no win machine (1-for-12) but sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (71), which is above par for this class level, and exits a runner-up finish when last seen back on Feb. 15 when a voided claim.
Race #6: Selections: 9-7-2
Maiden special Weight to Maiden Claiming class dropper 9-Trojan Mafia finished a wide fourth in a highly productive “key” race on debut Feb. 7 for trainer Jeff Mullins. That event has produced three next-out winners, and this barn has solid second-time starter stats, going 4-for-14 (29%) with a $2.42 ROI the past five years in dirt sprints over this course. 7-Shady Gem was a much-improved runner-up in career try number two when dropped into this level for conditioner Jeff Bonde, where he posted a competitive (53) Beyer. The gelded son of Collected has worked four times since that effort, which included a pair of bullets. 2-Sunk Coast Fallacy was a troubled trip fourth (beaten three-quarters of a length) when last seen on Feb. 28, when hindered in traffic late, and is dangerous with clear sailing off the mini-freshening.
Race #7: Selections: 7-5-1
Trainer Phil D’Amato is not known for claiming many horses, but sports a solid 30% win clip when doing so overall. He sends out returnee 7-Janey Creed in this competitive N2X optional $80k claimer, who hasn’t been out since June 11, when finishing third. The 5-year-old mare lures Jaramillo off the bench and owns the best late-pace figure in the field. She should be finishing up nicely if she can get an honest pace to run at. Her stablemate, 5-Kentucky Gal (Ire), is back off a seven-month hiatus and is back on the Santa Anita lawn, where she’s done her best running, including a three-length score a year ago going longer. 1-My Perfect Wave drops out of a pair of graded stakes into this softer spot for conditioner Tim Yakteen and earned a solid (84) winning Beyer this trip three back. The 4-year-old daughter of American Pharoah figures to trip out nicely from the fence with Kimura.
Race #8: Selections: 6-3-4
6-Betty Pack hasn’t been out in over a year (when a voided claim back on April 19, 2025), but has trained nicely over the local synthetic strip for her return to action for the Miyadi barn and has speed figures that match up well here. 3-Savannahs Big Girl takes a huge class plunge this afternoon off a well-beaten seventh and last when overmatched on March 27, but is back in a more realistic spot this afternoon, making the third try of the form cycle. A well-beaten third in last, 4-Molly Jensen has good speed and goes first off the April 3 claim for her new low-profile connections, while shortening up from six panels to 5 ½ furlongs. The Ghostzapper filly figures to be the one to run down late.
Race #9: Selections: 3-2-9
3-Tipitap drops in for a first-time tag today in start number three, after showing some early zip and fading in both local grass route tries. This barn has above-average stats with MDSW to MDCLM class droppers, and the lucrative jockey-trainer combo is 4 for 11 (36%) with a lofty $8.65 ROI overall when teamed up with turf starters. That ROI is inflated, thanks to 26-1 April 5 upset winner Lilo Lil, but shouldn’t take away from the barn’s intent on the pilot switch. 2-Kintrigue chased the pace and faded to fifth in her Feb. 20 debut when attracting some decent wagering support for the D’Amato barn. The sophomore filly by McKinzie moves to grass on the stretch-out in start number two and can improve considerably for an outfit that has solid dirt to turf second-time route stats from a small sample. Kimura sticks. Back-to-back seconds routing on turf, 9-Justivar has had several close-up finishes, making career start number nine today, while hitting the superfecta ticket in seven straight. The Justify mare makes her third try of the form cycle this afternoon and retains red-hot Ayuso, who had a bang-up performance over the track last week.
