Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Irish Element (Race 8)
Race #1: Selections: 3-5-2
3-She’s No Quant had a nightmarish trip on debut, March 14, when checked at the start, rank, and wide before getting bumped late. The Pavel filly rallied strongly to grab the show spot despite the challenging journey and figures to be a handful in career try number two. 5-Midnight Cowgirl was a sharp second in the aforementioned March 14 turf sprint off the seven-month layoff with the addition of Lasix, and is a logical threat, second off the bench, for conditioner Ryan Hanson. 2-Holdthatrainbow (by Uptown Rythem) has trained sharply for today’s unveiling for trainer Carla Gaines and lures Geroux, who finished second on the barn’s firster, Gaines, on April 4.
Race #2: Selections: 5-7-3
The lightly raced 5-Liam Smith powered away to an impressive 11-length win on Feb. 6, when facing winners for the first time, with a lofty (90) Beyer speed figure. The Jeff Mullins-trained sophomore has had plenty of recovery time, has trained well since that dominating score, and will be a short price to take his third straight. The stakes-winning 7-Tapalo goes turf to dirt, second off the claim for trainer Steve Knapp, while making his third start of the form cycle. Jaramillo sticks, who piloted Liam Smith in all three career starts. 3-Tessuto is the second runner from the Mullins barn. The 5-year-old gelding moves back to the main track on the class drop and second try off the claim. His dirt figures match up well here, and improvement is likely.
Race #3: Selections: 5-3-1
5-Track Tiger loses Lasix today but exits a sharp gate-to-wire allowance victory over the downhill course on March 8 (against a short field) and projects to get another favorable upfront trip for Team O’Neill with today’s outside draw. 3-Later Than Planned (Ire) finished a better-than-looks fifth in the Pasadena S. when having his saddle slip and having traffic issues late. The D’Amato-trained 3-year-old is a proven stakes winner and ran well in his only try over this tricky course two back. His third try of the form cycle may prove best. 1-Iriseach (Ire) shortens up in distance for his first try over the downhill course, exiting a decent third in the aforementioned Pasadena back on Feb. 22. The 3-year-old colt sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (81).
Race #4: Selections: 7-3-8
The 7-time winner 7-Theresasilverlinin finished second against better on April 2 with a (70) main track Beyer and figures to fall into another upfront pressing trip moving further outside of the other speed-types signed on this afternoon. The tepid vote. 3-Love Our Family scampered away to an impressive 6-length score as the 4-5 choice on March 14 against this level (and a pair of today’s returning rivals), and now goes first off the claim for the Gary Stute barn. However, these connections are only 2-for-32 (6%) with recent acquisitions over the past five years. 8-Mastery Kat has never raced at Santa Anita but returns to dirt off the three-month freshening while dropping in for a career-low $10k claiming tag. This 6-year-old mare usually fires fresh and should be picking up the pieces late as a must-use for those playing the vertical exotics.
Race #5: Selections: 6-8-7
6-Marla Hooch is on the improve for D’Amato, exiting a recent grass sprint third against similar in career try number two back on Feb. 14. The 3-year-old daughter of Om makes her third lifetime start and should be all set for a top effort this afternoon. Reddam Racing’s 8-The Loan Exchange is by Nyquist, who averages 12% with 3-year-old & up debut runners and 13% with grass sprinters. Jockey Juan Hernandez gets the riding assignment and has done well from limited tries for conditioner Antonio Garcia. 7-Impressionistic (by Smiling Tiger) has trained favorably on the synthetic track for conditioner Leonard Powell and lures Jaramillo at first asking. This barn is only 1-for-61 with debut runners the past five years, however.
Race #6: Selections: 1-12-11
1-Twisted Humor has hit the board in all four career starts for trainer Jeff Bonde and drops another notch in class this afternoon after back-to-back losses, as the public’s betting choice. The filly adds blinkers today and could be long gone with an alert break from the fence. A beaten favorite in last, 12-Bitter Truth makes the all-important third career start today for trainer Craig Lewis and will likely benefit from the move to the far outside. The 4-year-old daughter of Clubhouse Ride goes second-time blinkers today and projects to get a favorable tracking trip with red-hot Jaramillo. The speedy 11-Play for Me tired to finish fifth behind the top choice in her most recent effort and now shortens up to 5 ½ furlongs. She finished third to repeat winner Tom’s Star two back.
Race #7: Selections: 3-6-4
The Grade-1 winning 3-King of Gosford (GB) returns from an eight-month freshening for the D’Amato barn off a solid worktab and has never been off the board over the Santa Anita lawn, 7-5-1-1. He’s one of two classy runners in the field that have cracked the (100) grass Beyer barrier, and he was runner-up in last year’s edition. 6-Seal Team (GB) finished a disappointing sixth as the tepid favorite in the Grade 3 San Simeon on March 14 but should improve today, stretching back out in distance, while making his second try off the 10-month break. 4-Captain Choochies steps up to face graded stakes caliber foes, having wheeled off six straight one-mile turf wins for the Papaprodromou barn, and is quick enough to grab the lead today with Geroux getting back aboard. The waters are considerably deeper in this spot, however. Can this tremendous run continue?
Race #8: Selections: 2-9-5
The O’Neill-trained 2-Irish Element took a dozen tries to break through the maiden ranks and then had a very wide journey throughout when facing winners on March 22. The 4-year-old gelding drops from $16k to $10,000 claimers today, and is reunited with winning pilot Emisael Jaramillo. He’s projected to get plenty of pace to run at. 9-White Mountain is a logical fit after his recent second and (69) Beyer on March 13, and now removes the blinkers this afternoon for conditioner Ryan Hanson. The Tapit gelding, like the top choice, should benefit from a love early race flow. 5-Aloha Chrome improved significantly on the stretch-out when second at 29-1 in front of the top pick in last, posting a career-best Beyer (64).
Race #9: Selections: 7-6-2
7-Marion Cross (GB) gets his 11th different rider this afternoon for conditioner Dan Blacker, exiting a troubled trip fifth on March 15. The 5-year-old mare makes her third start of the form cycle today, and could improve further, making his downhill debut. The 5-year-old mare should be forwardly placed in a field lacking any substantial early zip. The lightly raced 6-Bette Davis Eyes (Ire) makes her first U.S. start today, off a six-month hiatus, and lures Hernandez off a solid foundation over the synthetic course. She’s by multiple G1 winner, Blue Point. 2-Yoga Master (GB) rallied for fourth in her first Stateside try, finishing in front of the top choice in the aforementioned March 15 event. The 4-year-old filly is likely to move forward off that effort for trainer Leonard Powell, making her second start off the five-month break.
Race #10: Selections: 9-6-5-10
The D’Amato-trained 9-Bright Eye Bungle was off slow in his first Stateside try and then encountered a world of traffic issues when trying to shake free late. The 3-year-old gelding worked well leading up to his first U.S. try and has continued to train sharply since. An alert break and clear sailing, moving off the rail, should put this lightly raced 3-year-old in the winner’s circle in the Saturday nightcap. 6-Legal Heir shortens back up to a sprint today after showing good early zip and fading in a series of one-mile grass tries dating back to last October. Back-to-back (75) turf Beyers make the Nyquist colt the main threat with Kimura. 5-McGregor (by McKinzie) debuts for Team Baffert off some solid a.m. drills, but this barn is only 1-for-28 with grass sprint firsters the past five years. 10-Fan Base is a gelded son of American Pharoah, who has a series of nice a.m. drills for Tim Yakteen. He debuts with Lasix and gets an outside draw.
