Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Slice (Race 9)
Race #1: Selections: 1-2-8
1-Decapo grabbed the front late but was run down as the even-money choice when facing similar on April 30. The 4-year-old Mendelssohn colt makes his second try off the bench and switches to Rosario, who has won four of the last five starts for this barn as of this writing. 2-Steak Fries rallied for the place spot when shaking free in front of the top choice when returning off a 537-day hiatus for conditioner Craig Lewis, posting the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (82). The colt is a logical fit, especially if able to move forward on the second try off the extended break. 8-Bee Eye Gee exits back-to-back third-place finishes for trainer Brian Koriner, coming off a career-best turf Beyer (80).
Race #2: Selections: 6-4-1
6-Morello has lost 15 straight and is winless since March 2024, but takes a sizable class drop today and is the likely frontrunner with Maldonado back aboard. The 7-year-old gelding has consistently posted faster dirt main-track figures than the rest of this suspect field. 4-Sunset Storm shortens back up in distance after finishing an even fourth against a pair of today’s returning rivals while making his third start of the form cycle. 1-Levon broke slowly, spotting the field about a length and a half, and then made a belated wide rally late to pass some tired rivals when returning to dirt after spending the last several starts routing on grass at Turf Paradise. The gelding drops in class and can improve if he breaks with the field, though that rarely happens.
Race #3: Selections: 5-2-6
The daughter of Om, 5-Redheaded Reba, has run well in both local tries for trainer Daniel Dunham and just missed by a nose when stepping up to face winners on May 2. This filly is a logical fit, making her third lifetime start off two competitive speed figures. 2-Danzing Flyer made a nice, sustained, wide run from the back of the pack to run down next-out winner Bessie Coleman in her most recent effort on April 24 and gets another half-furlong to work with, looking for the repeat. Hernandez sticks. A beaten favorite in the last, 6-Tequilaandtherapy goes turf to dirt for Team O’Neill on the class drop and has run equally well over the main track.
Race #4: Selections: 1-6-9
The well-backed 1-Vegas Nightclub draws the rail again after breaking slowly on debut, when rushing up along the inside into contention, and then flattening out late while not pressed to go on when obviously spent. The 5-year-old maiden adds blinkers for start number two, for a barn that has solid second-out stats. 6-Baby Needs Shoes is a six-start maiden making her initial dirt try for trainer Peter Miller. The daughter of Smiling Tiger exits a solid runner-up against this level on May 9 and is bred to handle the main track. 9-Dancing With Shari makes the all-important third career start for conditioner Tim McCanna after rallying for the show spot over several of these on May 2 and should be all set for a career-best effort this afternoon.
Race #5: Selections: 4-5-9
I’m going with the premise that the swift projected TimeformUS pace will materialize and set this race up for a closer. 4-Caisson finished a non-threatening seventh when facing several of these in his most recent try off a seven-month layoff, but is eligible to improve this afternoon, second off the bench, behind what’s likely to be a favorable race flow. 5-Kawazaki (Ire) is another that’s been slugging along to pick up the underneath pieces of the vertical exotics behind several of these same rivals in recent tries. Nonetheless, the 7-year-old gelding shortens back up to a mile today, where he’s registered two of his three lifetime wins and should get some pace to run into. A multiple winner over the track and distance, the speedy 9-Jimmy Blue Jeans has enough early zip to establish an early position despite today’s outside draw, and has proven he can sit and still finish. He goes first off the Librado Barocio claim, who is 4-for-14 (29%) with a lofty $4.56 ROI with newly acquired turf stock the past five years.
Race #6: Selections: 3-1-5
3-Bobs Honey finished sixth and last (beaten by double digits) in her most recent try on April 26, but drops from $32k claimers down to today’s $10,000 level, and fired a sharp four-furlong drill in :47 flat on May 23, indicating improvement could be forthcoming, third start of the form cycle. 1-Lovely Medaglia was a 19-1 upset winner on debut April 18 for trainer Hector Palma over a bulky field, and that race has already produced a next-out winner. The (58) main track figure earned that afternoon matches up well against this $10k claiming group. 5-Cloudy Rose got back on track with an improved runner-up finish on the class plunge and surface switch on April 30. The 4-year-old filly is eligible to move forward today, second off the bench.
Race #7: Selections: 8-9-2
A competitive Maiden Special Weight grass route kicks off the popular $3 low-takeout (15%) late pick-three. 8-Path To Power (GB) was a close-up second of 13 in an encouraging debut try at Dundalk back at the end of February, and has trained well over the Santa Anita synthetic course for his initial Stateside start. The sophomore colt adds Lasix for D’Amato, who excels with these import types. 9-Tribalism (Ire) by No Nay Never hasn’t been out in eight months, but ran well in his lone grass-route try at Keeneland (runner-up at 10-1) on debut in early October of last year, and now goes from the Brendan Walsh barn to the conditioner Michael McCarthy. He adds Lasix and lures Hernandez off the bench. The other D’Amato import, 2-Hazaka (Fr) (by multiple Garde 1 winner Hello Youmzain) has also trained smartly over the synthetic course for his U.S. unveiling, exiting a fifth of 13 on debut—also at Dundalk. Lasix on and Rosario lands here.
Race #8: Selections: 3-1-4
The Grade 1-winning 3-Seismic Beauty was a gate-to-wire, five-length winner of this event last year for Team Baffert and has regrouped since her disappointing 11th as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. The 5-year-old daughter of Uncle Mo has hit the board in seven of eight lifetime starts, with the BC being her only subpar effort. She’s worked sharply toward her return to action and should prove tough to overhaul in her comeback. Overmatched this campaign, 1-Om N Joy goes from turf to dirt for trainer Aggie Ordonez, looking to get back on track after a trio of consecutive double-digit-length defeats. The 5-time winning filly should find today’s 1 1/8-mile trip well within her wheelhouse and save a ton of ground on the rail. 4-Simply Joking exits a 6 ¾-length romp in the 4-horse Santa Maria (G3) and could potentially move forward off that top try, making the third start of the form cycle.
Race #9: Selections: 1-2-5
1-Slice by Into Mischief out of a turf stakes-winning dam Lemoona, moves to grass for the all-important third career try for trainer Michael McCarthy on the stretch-out. The 3-year-old filly can improve in this spot and gets the advantageous rail draw. 2-Soul Sister, a seven-start maiden, exits back-to-back runner-up turf route tries for Karen Headley with two of the best grass figures in the field. A logical fit. The other McCarthy filly, 5-Conquistadora, adds blinkers, goes second-time Lasix, and makes her second try off the five-month freshening. Improvement likely switching to jockey Juan Hernandez.
