Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Miss Phansy (Race 7)
Race #1: Selections: 4-2-3
The Michael McCarthy-trained 4-Repo is by multiple Grade 1 winner Nyquist, who gets a solid 18% with his juvenile-debuting prodigy and 13% with turf sprinters. The Reddam Racing colt lures Jaramillo off a steady work tab. 2-Nylie (by Nyquist) is a filly meeting the boys for Team O’Neill, and her most recent spirited four-furlong gate drill on May 20 hints at ability. 3-Simple Majority owns the experience edge over the rest of this field, finishing an even sixth on debut over the main track on May 15 when breaking a step slow from the rail. He’s bred to like turf and adds blinkers for career try number two.
Race #2: Selections: 3-6-1
A beaten favorite wide trip third in the last 3-Next Trick exits a career-best dirt Beyer (66) when finishing in front of a pair of returning rivals on May 2. The ultra-consistent 5-year-old gelding has hit the board in six of seven lifetime starts and projects to get another favorable upfront-pressing trip. 6-Macho Man shortens back up to a sprint off a pair of average route tries for trainer Mike Puype, including a wide sixth in his most recent effort on April 18. The gelding gets a “key” rider change to Rosario and makes his second try at the reduced $10k claiming level. 1-Just Deal tired to finish fifth behind the top selection in last, when dropped to this career-low claiming tag and returning to Southern California.
Race #3: Selections: 1-5-3
The 1-for-23 1-Motet is hard to trust but rallied for the place spot against slightly better on May 8 and gets the tepid vote off that best last-out turf Beyer (70) and the move inside to the rail. Rosario on. 5-Angelica Bay (Ire) was overmatched when facing winners on April 24, flashed speed, then tired, but drops back to a more realistic level this afternoon for trainer Doug O’Neill. 3-Newport Dreamz has hit the board in his last three straight for trainer Tim Yakteen and is a logical fit again.
Race #4: Selections: 8-3-4
8-Lying Zero (by Nyquist) debuts for Reddam Racing and trainer Doug O’Neill off an abbreviated published work tab, but is nicely drawn outside and is likely to come out running. This owner-trainer combo is 10-for-34 (29%) with a positive ROI with dirt sprint debut runners the past five years. 3-Jolene Fury (by Stay Thirsty) has worked well enough for today’s unveiling for conditioner Jorge Periban and doesn’t need to be all that quick to compete in what looks like a suspect lineup. 4-She’s My Star flashed brief speed before tiring to sixth at 16-1 on debut April 30 and owns the experience edge over most of these fillies. This barn is only 1-for-41 (4%) with second-time starters, however.
Race #5: Selections: 2-7-5
2-Jennys Wine Girl scampered away to a decisive 3 ¾-length turf sprint maiden victory on May 8 with a competitive figure, and now stretches back out to today’s mile trip, where she’s run well (4-0-2-2). The daughter of Richard’s Kid looks well-placed for her first crack against winners, and Jaramillo sticks. 7-French Moonlight flashed speed and tired when finishing fifth and last in the Santa Barbara S. on May 3, but should find this group much more appealing for trainer Leonard Powell. The 4-year-old filly holds a double Beyer turf advantage based on back-to-back 74s and shortens back up to a mile. 5-Vicky Lyn has quietly improved her turf Beyers with each subsequent start for conditioner Brendan Galvin and now adds blinkers on the class drop. The Grazen filly figures to get a favorable upfront-pressing trip with Hernandez back aboard.
Race #6: Selections: 2-1-5
Trainer Bob Baffert sends out a pair of Tiz the Law fillies off sharp a.m. drills, and the multiple Grade 1-winning sire gets an above-average 18% with 3-year-old & up debut runners. The 4-year-old 2-Moona Lisa is a $1.9 million OBS purchase who looks well-meant for her long-awaited unveiling and has trained like her lofty price tag suggests she should. 1-Dainey must negotiate the tricky rail draw, but with her stablemate drawn alongside, both should come out of there running. This filly did not cost nearly as much as barnmate, but sizzled a “best of 61” bullet five furlongs in :58.3 on May 24. If the Baffert pair doesn’t fire, 5-Saucier is the logical alternative. The daughter of City of Light exits back-to-back runner-up main track sprint efforts and makes the third start of the form cycle.
Race #7: Selections: 5-1-6
5-Miso Phansy ran well off the eight-month layoff for trainer Leonard Powell on May 2 when outkicked late for the place spot, and should be much tighter this afternoon, second off the bench. This daughter of Karakontie likes the Santa Anita sod (7-2-3-1) and came back to fire a sharp bullet four furlongs over the synthetic track May 25. 1-Suntory Time drew off to an impressive four-length maiden claiming turf route romp, and although the figure didn’t come up particularly fast, the 4-year-old filly was geared down late and looks well-spotted for her first crack against winners. 6-We the Hobby hasn’t started in roughly eight plus months for trainer Peter Miller, but has run well off the break in the past for an excellent layoff barn. However, the 4-year-old filly usually prefers to finish underneath, as evidenced by her 11-1-5-3 career mark.
Race #8: Selections: 5-3-4
The Grade 1-winning 5-Stronghold got back on track with a dominant four-length allowance score at Oaklawn off an eight-month layoff on April 17 for trainer Phil D’Amato, and looks primed for a repeat, stepping back up into graded stakes competition as the class of this field. The Ghostzapper 5-year-old has finished first or second in 11 of 13 lifetime starts and has trained sharply locally since his return win. 3-The Goat (Chi) makes his first Stateside start for Sadler off a 540-day hiatus, having won four straight (including a Grade 1) in his home country. An aggressive placement, but this 5-year-old has trained exceptionally well for the U.S. unveiling, and you have to appreciate the barn’s confidence. 4-Simple Song steps up in class off a solid allowance score when last seen back in early March. He gets a stiff class test while trying seven furlongs for the first time.
Race #9: Selections: 1-4-3-10
A competitive $50k maiden claiming turf sprint for colts and geldings closes out the payoff leg of the Sunday program. 1-Sigma Boy (by War of Will) returns as a first-time gelding off an even fourth on debut April 3, and the Sadler barn has above-average stats with second-time turf starters. The 3-year-old gelding switches to Rosario, who has won five of his last six starts for these connections as of this writing. The other Sadler and stablemate, 4-Gandalf, flashed good speed off the nine-month freshening on May 1 in start number two before fading to finish seventh. The gelded son of Omaha Beach figures to be much tighter, second off the bench. 3-H Q Wilson returns as a gelding off a nearly nine-month layoff for D’Amato, when last claimed in early September of last year. This barn doesn’t reach in to claim horses often, but sports a 3-for-6 (50%) record with a $4 ROI from a small sample (with grass runners at this venue) when doing so. Second off the claim, 10-Maximon is drawn outside but is hard to toss entirely, given his runner-up finish against a pair of today’s returning rivals on May 1 and his competitive turf-sprint Beyer figures.
