Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 8-Waiting for My Cue (Race 6)
Race #1: Selections: 4-7-1
A multiple winner over the track and distance, 4-Super Ellie returns from a 10-month layoff for red-hot Andy Mathis, and was claimed before hitting the sidelines last August. This mare has run par or better for this class level on multiple occasions, routing on turf, and this barn is 6-for-20 (30%) with grass horses returning off >180 days the past five years. The Neil Drysdale-trained 7-Cameron Slough rallied for the place spot in front of a pair of today’s returning rivals on April 30, and now makes her second try off the bench. She’s a logical fit, having posted the field’s best last-out turf Beyer. 1-Catalina Cocktail returns to turf after finishing a well-beaten fourth and last in the Santa Maria (G3) when eased and walked off the course on April 19. The 5-year-old mare’s grass-route tries prior to that subpar effort at Santa Anita two back and at Turf Paradise this winter were competitive, and she switches to Rosario, who has won six of his last eight starts for the Sadler barn.
Race #2: Selections: 1-6-3
1-Ryan’s Girl has won two straight by a combined 13 ½ lengths for trainer Genaro Vallejo, posting main-track Beyers of 82 and 80, respectively, and holds a clear advantage in raw speed figures over the rest of this field based on that pair of back-to-back triumphs. A threepeat is well within reach at short odds. 6-Bear’s Board steps up in class off the May 22 claim and a seven-length romp over this one-mile trip, getting substantial class relief and moving back to dirt. This barn has above-average stats with new acquisitions. 3-Theresaliverlinin was no match for the top pick in her last try, but was a clear second over Unbridled Scholar.
Race #3: Selections: 1-2-4
1-Anywaythewindblows was visually impressive when kicking away by four lengths on May 8 going this one-mile distance and now moves up in class off that convincing score and best last-out grass Beyer (79), which is par for this class level. The speedy 2-Wildfire Princess exits a sharp gate-to-wire score on May 22 and appears to be (at least on paper) the commanding speed again in this short field of fillies and mares. The red-hot Rosario hops aboard. Trainer Phil D’Amato sends out the pair in 4-Eternal Reign (Ire) and 5-Upstart. The latter holds the recency edge over stablemate and also exits a win versus softer. The 5-year-old mare makes her third start of the form cycle this afternoon, off an improving Beyer pattern.
Race #4: Selections: 3-8-2
Blinkers off 3-Last Chance Darcy goes turf to dirt in career try number two off a non-threatening sixth for the lucrative Desormeaux/Ordonez jockey-trainer combo, and this barn has productive stats with the surface switch (4-for-16, 25% with a $4.59 ROI the past four years). Improvement likely. Upset chance. One of two 4-year-old fillies, 8-Very Smart flashed good early zip in start number two off the 13-month layoff for trainer Peter Eurton before tiring to fourth, but figures to be much tighter this afternoon, second off the long break. 2-Jacklyn Lucas was nailed at the wire when stretched out on the turf May 16 and now moves back to dirt on the cutback for conditioner Steve Miyadi. The sophomore daughter of Grazen has run equally well over the main track.
Race #5: Selections: 1-4-5
The last leg of the early pick five is a tricky claiming turf route, and has the look of a spread race for those participating in the horizontal exotics. A closing second in his most recent grass route try, the multiple graded-stakes-placed 1-Lord Bullingdon steps up in class off the May 3 Steve Sherman claim, having posted the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (87). 4-Mr. Leasure was a game gate-to-wire winner with the class drop from a starter allowance to a $30k claimer on April 24 for conditioner Tim Yakteen and figures to get another favorable upfront-pressing journey today. 5-Enterdadragon goes two sprints to a route for the D’Amato barn, exiting a recent second versus similar. Rosario hops aboard as jockey Antonio Fresu sticks with recent winner Mr. Leasure.
Race #6: Selections: 8-4-1
8-Waiting for My Cue rallied nicely for the show spot once finding adequate racing room after being stuck behind some heavy traffic off the year-long hiatus for trainer Leonard Powell. The 4-year-old daughter of Smiling Tiger stretches out to today’s mile trip, second off the bench, and should be all set for a career-best effort this afternoon. 4-Kitty Mac broke slowly from the rail at 48-1 and trailed throughout in her grass-sprint debut on April 18 for trainer Dan Blacker, and now moves to dirt on the class plunge in start number two. The daughter of multiple Grade 1 winner Acclamation stretches out today, adds Lasix, and is likely to show more. 1-Bitter Truth finished a disappointing third as the heavily-favored odds-on choice May 8 when stretched out to today’s one-mile trip, and now goes first off the claim for new trainer Jose Valdez.
Race #7: Selections: 5-8-10
Several of these fillies and mares exit the April 30 one-mile allowance turf event. 5-My Perfect Wave lost all realistic chance when stumbling badly at the start from the rail and failing to make any headway thereafter when wide and outrun. The daughter of American Pharoah makes her second try at today’s reduced level, goes second off the bench for conditioner Tim Yakteen, and is likely to improve significantly with a cleaner getaway. 8-Hannah Buckle rallied nicely for third in the aforementioned April 30 event despite chasing mediocre early splits and makes her third start of the form cycle today for Leonard Powell. A multiple winner over the track and distance, 10-Rosalee May hasn’t been out in 10 months for trainer Michael McCarthy, but has proven she can fire fresh for an excellent layoff barn.
Race #8: Selections: 1-4-5
1-Magnify regressed in his third start off the bench, finishing third as the odds-on choice, flashing speed when very wide on May 9, and seeing his main-track Beyer drop by 20 points. The Tim Yakteen trainee is likely to bounce back this afternoon moving inside to the rail, and should be forwardly placed with winning pilot Kazushi Kimura back aboard. 4-Berlin Wall couldn’t get by the race winner but finished a clear second over the top choice in the aforementioned May 9 event and has fired back-to-back four-furlong bullet drills since that effort, indicating the colt remains on edge. 5-Deer District was forced to take up and lose valuable momentum at the top of the lane when last seen on May 2, when dismissed at 41-1 for conditioner Vladimir Cerin. The 3-for-30 gelding drops in class today and can improve with Rosario taking over the riding assignment.
Race #9: Selections: 3-9-1
3-Icons Only finished an even fourth as the beaten tepid favorite off the eight-month layoff on May 3 for trainer Carla Gaines and figures to improve on the stretch-out second off the bench. The daughter of Maximum Security has worked sharply twice over the synthetic footing since that return try. 9-Justivar has had several chances and close-up finishes, making career try number 10 this afternoon. The Mike Puype-trained mare’s jockey, Armando Ayuso, lost his crop at a critical stage of her most recent try, finishing a beaten favorite third. An obvious fit again. 1-Photogenic is back in action off the two-and-a-half-month mini-freshening for trainer Leonard Powell, and both of her better turf route tries have come at this $50k maiden claiming level.
