Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Bear’s Board (Race 6)
Race #1: Selections: 4-1-2
4-Taking a Joy Ride finished a solid second in an encouraging main track sprint debut try on April 5, and now moves to turf on the stretch-out for start number two for conditioner Craig Lewis. The 3-year-old filly is by Clubhouse Ride, who gets an average 14% with grass route prodigy and retains Hernandez. The filly should be a handful if she takes to the new surface with any normal improvement on her second outing. 1-Humidity finished a troubled trip third behind Maggles McGee in last when encountering traffic issues late, and has come back to fire two sharp a.m. drills, including a “best of 35” four furlongs in :46.4 over the synthetic track. 2-Maggles McGee is a logical fit, having run three consecutive seconds on turf to begin her career for the Papaprodromou barn.
Race #2: Selections: 2-5-1
2-Ya’ll Come exits a decent second at this level on March 27 when first off the Mullins claim, posting the field’s best last-out dirt Beyer (73). The Smiling Tiger gelding followed up that effort with a “best of 97” spirited four-furlong bullet drill in :46 flat. The speedy 5-Three Georges goes turf to dirt on the class drop for trainer Ian Kruljac and was a 5 ½-furlong main track winner when last trying dirt three back. The gelding is nicely drawn outside of this short field and should be well-positioned to potentially pick up lifetime win number three. 1-Bid On the Prize got a much-needed confidence-building allowance score going 1,000 yards under the Los Al lights April 12 and now drops in for today’s $10k claiming tag. The 1-for-18 7-year-old gelding matches up well here.
Race #3: Selections: 2-4-5
2-Burning Rubber goes two sprints to a route, having won two of his last four turf tries for conditioner Sean McCarthy, and figures to be the frontrunner this afternoon with regular pilot Juan Hernandez in the saddle. The 4-year-old colt returns off the mini-freshening and has trained well in the interim. The stakes-winning 4-Santa Barbarian hasn’t been out in 10 months but has trained exceptionally well for his return to action for conditioner Ryan Hanson and is likely to fire fresh. 5-Mysterious Husband moves up in class, having won two straight for the Glatt barn, including a well-timed victory over next-out winner Call Me Sir off the extended break on March 1.
Race #4: Selections: 2-6-5
A tricky field of colts and geldings line up here going one mile, with several dropping in class and changing surfaces. 2-Knowhere has shown speed and tired in both career starts, but that was against much steeper Maiden Special Weight types. The gelded son of Cat Burgler (19% dirt routes) drops in for a first-time tag today, goes second-time Lasix, and is a serious gate-to-wire threat on the class plunge and stretch out. 6-Imagineer has not hit the board in five lifetime tries but drops to a career-low $20k maiden claiming tag, moving back to dirt, and is eligible to improve substantially at this reduced level. 5-Fight Back makes career try number 16 today, but is another taking a big class drop while making his initial dirt try. The 5-year-old gelding’s recent main track drill on April 19 indicates he should handle the surface switch for Hernandez and Cerin. He’s tough to trust, however, having only hit the board twice from several chances.
Race #5: Selections: 7-2-10
7-Royal Rumor ran a better-than-looks sixth when running in spots on debut, March 28, for trainer Carla Gaines, and likely gained solid racing experience out of that unveiling. The 4-year-old gelding is equipped with blinkers for career try number two and is likely to move forward this afternoon with Jaramillo back aboard. 2-Jimmy Winkfield rallied for the show spot despite breaking slowly and racing wide in what can be considered a solid debut effort for trainer Steve Knapp. The Grazen gelding earned a respectable (65) Beyer and should prove tough with any normal second-out progression. The D’Amato-trained 10-Sunset Ride goes dirt to turf, while making the all-important third career start, and should be set for a career-best effort today, moving to grass, second time Lasix.
Race #6: Selections: 5-4-2
5-Bear’s Board goes turf to dirt on the substantial class plunge ($80k to $32,000) today for Team O’Neill, and this filly’s versatile running style should serve her well in a spot that’s projected to have a spirited race flow. This jockey-trainer combo has been potent in recent weeks and looks well-primed to carve out another win here. 4-Flamingo Star scampered away to an impressive 7-length romp on March 28 when moved back to sprinting on dirt. A repeat of that (67) Beyer would make her a strong repeat candidate for the Brinkerhoff barn. The Emerald Downs stakes-placed 2-Bobs Honey likely needed her last run when trying turf off the mini-freshening, while never lifting a foot. She now gets back to the main track, second off the bench, for trainer Tim McCanna. She’ll likely get overlooked in here at overlaid odds, but improvement is likely.
Race #7: Selections: 8-7-2
Never off the board in five career turf tries, 8-Kikuride hasn’t been out since August but has the right late closing running style that should serve her well off the extended break in a race that’s expected to be swift early on by TimeformUS pace projector. The Craig Lewis-trained filly retains regular pilot Juan Hernandez and should fire fresh. The D’Amato-trained 7-Idessia is another late-closing type, exiting a game score on March 6, returning off a 10-month layoff. The three-time winner posted the field’s best last-out turf Beyer with that recent victory. The barn has been struggling, but 2-Goodnight Nellie rarely misfires and moves inside today after a pair of outside draws in which she ran considerably well. Her recent race on March 22, where she was runner-up, has produced a pair of next-out winners.
Race #8: Selections: 1-5-7
A full field of maiden claiming fillies and mares kicks off the competitive $5 late double. Turf to dirt 1-Alix doesn’t have much main track pedigree, but flashed improved speed and tired to a well-beaten sixth in career try number two for Hess on March 22. The 3-year-old filly now drops in for a first-time tag, moving to the main track on the turnback, and could prove dangerous if sent hard by Berrios from the fence. 5-Conquest Sue was outrun in both turf sprint tries to begin her career, but moves to dirt today, drops in for a first-time tag, and is likely to improve substantially. This barn is 3-for-12 (25%) with a positive ROI with turf to dirt MDSW to Maiden Claiming droppers. 7-Manhattan Beauty drops again and is another moving back to dirt, exiting a well-beaten fourth back in mid-February. The Union Rags filly worked well locally on April 14 and is dangerous if she can run back to that (64) main-track Beyer from two back.
Race #9: Selections: 9-2-11
The Michael McCarthy-trained 9-Mi Confession (Arg) ran well considering it was her first Stateside try off a six-month layoff on March 29, when grabbing the lead in deep stretch only to be run down late and finish third. The filly stretches out today and switches to jockey Emisael Jaramillo, who is 4-for-11 (36%) riding on turf for this top outfit the past year. The stakes-winning 2-Take Another Card stretches back out to a mile this afternoon, exiting a trio of decent tries over the downhill course for conditioner Simon Callaghan. The 4-year-old daughter of I’ll have Another has proven she can handle this trip and has run competitive grass figures for this level.. A runner-up in three straight races, 11-Resolve hasn’t had the best luck when it comes to draws and is pitted outside again for trainer Leonard Powell. Nonetheless, the 1-for-17 filly should make her customary strong late run and sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (86).
