Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Somerset West (Race 3)
Race #1: Selections: 3-6-1
3-Mr. Leasure drops out of a series of starter allowance turf routes into this softer spot this afternoon for trainer Tim Yakteen and looks like the likely frontrunner in a paceless affair. The 5-year-old gelding should prove tough to run down late at this one-mile trip with an alert break. A multiple winner over the track and distance, 6-Promissio likely needed his last start when returning off an eight-month layoff for Team O’Neill on March 13 and should be much tighter, second off the bench. Two sprints to a route 1-Rhythem On Stage is only 2-for-21 lifetime for conditioner Carla Gaines, but makes the third try of the form cycle today and retains Hernandez.
Race #2: Selections: 1-5-7
1-Thank You India has run well in all three career tries for trainer Andy Mathis, including a third in the Grade 3 Sorrento last summer at Del Mar. The daughter of Practical Joke has been training steadily for her first start in seven months and gets Lasix for the first time this afternoon. Blinkers off 5-Kinzlee’s Charisma goes turf to dirt, having run reasonably well in all four career efforts for her low-profile connections. She projects to be on or close to the lead this afternoon. 7-Akkadevi is by Cairo Prince, who gets an ordinary 12% with his 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy, but the filly hails from the Tim Yakteen barn, who is fully capable of firing with firsters. She does not need to be much to compete here.
Race #3: Selections: 7-3-6
7-Somerset West is on the improve for Sadler, exiting a sharp runner-up turf sprint finish on April 4, going this 6 ½-furlong trip. Another outside draw should place the Kantharos filly in a preferable stalking journey, and she sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (74). The Mandella-trained 3-Ou La La rallied sharply for second despite some traffic issues late for an encouraging unveiling on March 20 and figures to be a handful with any normal second-out progression. Jaramillo sticks. 6-Silkie Sevei (Ire) makes her third Stateside try for D’Amato off an improving Beyer pattern and was third behind the top choice in last.
Race #4: Selections: 6-8-3
Class dropping 6-Pocket Venus shortens up from seven panels to today’s 5 ½-furlong trip for conditioner Mark Glatt, having posted the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (72). Turf to dirt 8-Danzing Flyer was a gate-to-wire debut winner in an “off the turf” unveiling last February over this strip and has been working well over at San Luis Rey off the three-month mini-freshening. 3-Bessie Coleman shortens up to a sprint this afternoon, dropping from a $32,500 claimer to today’s $25k level. The 5-year-old mare’s last (65) Beyer is nearly on par for this class level.
Race #5: Selections: 4-5-3
4-Run With Liberty rallied strongly down the stretch to post a 14-1 three-length one-mile turf upset for Mullins on March 22, and looks well-placed for her first crack against winners. Although her grass figure came up lighter than Run With Liberty, 5-Wild West Coast was just as impressive as the top choice when scampering away by 6 ¾ lengths on debut over the Turf Paradise lawn on March 9. The daughter of Mo Forza adds Lasix today and has trained well over the local synthetic course since that maiden-breaking victory. 3-Eighties didn’t show a whole lot when weakening late on March 27, but adds blinkers and Lasix today, second off the bench, and can move forward on the stretch out.
Race #6: Selections: 11-3-7
A tricky six-furlong $10k claimer main track sprint kicks off the late pick four with five fillies and/or mares exiting recent wins. 11-Miz Clubcall finally got back to the winner’s circle after a long drought with a game win on April 5 and followed up that score with a sharp three-furlong drill on April 18, indicating she remains on edge. She sports the best late pace figure in the field and is likely to settle back with this afternoon’s outside draw and come running late. 3-Legal Fiction finished a much-improved second on the class drop and move back to dirt on March 15, and now makes the third start off the extended break for Team O’Neill. 7-Toulouse Detrac crossed the line first but was disqualified to second (behind Eltonsinsanother) for interference when last seen in late February and co-tops the field’s best last-out main track Beyer.
Race #7: Selections: 3-4-2
A beaten favorite in three of her last five starts, 3-Eternal Reign (Ire) exits a troubled trip fifth on March 29 when boxed in traffic, and then ran on well enough while falling 3 ¾ lengths short. She makes her second try off the mini-freshening for D’Amato and shortens back up to a mile, where she just missed two back. Recent maiden winner 4-Channel Place returned to fire a bullet four-furlong synthetic drill in :46.2 on April 19 and may be ready to tackle winners for a potent jockey-trainer combo. The lightly raced 2-Green Zone broke a step slow when facing winners for the first time back on Feb. 27, and failed to get involved early on as she did for her maiden score two back. The Grazen filly draws a cozy inside post this afternoon and can take this field a long way with an alert break.
Race #8: Selections: 7-9-2
The lightly raced gelding 7-The G M returns from an eight-month layoff for trainer Mike Puype off a spirited work tab and should get a live race flow to close into with Ayuso. 9-Letmein hasn’t been out in seven months, but he has proven he can fire fresh, evidenced by his 12-length maiden victory last April. Trainer Mark Glatt is 17-for-77 22% ($2.52 ROI) with dirt sprint returnees off >180 days. 2-Mr. Machupicchu is 1-for-25 but has run recent Beyer figures of 82 and 84, which match up well here. The 4-year-old gelding has hit the superfecta ticket in eight consecutive tries and is a must-include for those playing the vertical exotics.
Race #9: Selections: 2-7-1
2-Danzing Wild Cat flashed speed and tired when facing a trio of today’s returning rivals on March 22 and now makes the third try of the form cycle today for conditioner Brendan Galvin. The Danzing 5-year-old gelding looks to get a favorable upfront-pressing trip with second-time Hernandez. The late-closing 7-Benny’s Puzzle exits back-to-back runner-up efforts, when facing several of these, including the top choice, and is a logical fit off back-to-back 66 turf Beyers. 1-Booked Clubhouse stretches back out to today’s one-mile trip after a trio of close-up turf sprint finishes for trainer Sean McCarthy.
