Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Scary Fast Ride (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 3-5-4
First post 3:15 p.m. for Kentucky Oaks Day. Bonus Oaks Selections listed below.
3-Crossanna just missed the show spot when last seen back on Feb. 28 and now goes first off the Mullins claim. This barn does not have as high a win percentage with their turf runner purchases, but has been firing on all cylinders as of late, and this 5-year-old mare does sport the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (74). Two sprints to a route 5-Tequilaandtherapy is 0-for-9 over the Santa Anita lawn but drops from an allowance into today’s $32,000 claimer on the stretch out for a lucrative jockey-trainer combo. 4-Sakura Flavor (Ire) is a logical fit off the most recent runner-up finish at this level on March 28 as the beaten tepid favorite, and has worked twice in the interim.
Race #2: Selections: 1-4-3
A solid 11-1 upset winner in last, 1-Scary Fast Ride could trip out nicely again this afternoon, drafting behind the two speeds drawn outside of her for conditioner Sean McCarthy. The hard-hitting 7-year-old mare owns the best last-out main track Beyer (82) and simply loves this racetrack, evidenced by the 9-4-1-3 lifetime mark. 4-Crazy Cami was a much-improved second with the switch back to dirt on March 6 when rebuffed late by the race winner, and fits well with a similar effort. The lightly raced 3-A. Z. Wildcat hasn’t been out in 13 months for Sadler, but has trained smartly for today’s return to action and has shown ability in two of three career tries. The Munnings filly should fire fresh,
Race #3: Selections: 1-2-3
1-Chapter One makes career try number seven today, but returns as a first-time gelding, while dropping in for a first-time tag for team O’Neill. This barn has solid stats with the MDSW to MDCLM class plunge, and this son of Yaupon figures to be hustled along from the fence for good early position. 2-Running Spartan is a 10-start maiden but has good early zip and posted some snappy early splits before tiring to third in his most recent try on March 22. He makes his third start of the form cycle today and could be set for his best effort to date for the Papaprodromou barn. 3-Maximon finished third behind Running Sparton in last with some trouble (taken up early and crowded) and now goes first off the claim for trainer Peter Eurton, who has solid above-average stats with new acquisitions.
Race #4: Selections: 8-2-6
8-Saluto (by Stay Thirsty) is nicely drawn outside for Knapp with some decent a.m. drills, and this barn is 10-for-39 (26%) with a $2.68 ROI with sprint dirt debut runners over this course the past five years. His stablemate is 2-King Kameha, a son of the multiple Grade 1 winner McKinzie (15% with juvenile debut runners) who has trained steadily for his unveiling. 6-Fumano’s Fire is by Straight Fire, who is a strong 22% with his juvenile debuting prodigy. This colt has been training steadily since the end of March and would be no surprise if he came out running.
Race #5: Selections: 4-1-5
The 12th time was the charm for recent maiden winner 4-Soi Ngern, who scampered away to an impressive 7 ½-length romp on April 17. He stretches back out for conditioner Val Brinkerhoff for his first crack against winners, and perhaps the light bulb went on with that recent sharp score. Second off the bench, 1-Hornsby didn’t show much in his last pair of turf tries, but gets back to dirt this afternoon for Baltas, and was a maiden winner three back over the Santa Anita main track. Improvement likely with the class drop, switching to Jaramillo. 5-Millbo Baggins is another returning to dirt for conditioner Aggie Ordonez, and both of this gelding’s best efforts came over the main track. Veteran rider Kent Desormeaux is 11-for-29 (38%) the past three years riding for this outfit.
Race #6: Selections: 4-5-2
A winner of two of his last three turf routes for Mullins, 4-Centrodelantero just missed in a blanket finish on March 14 when facing a trio of today’s returning rivals. The hard-hitting 6-year-old gelding makes his third try of the current form cycle, has consistently run the quickest Beyers in this field, and should be tough once again this afternoon. The Grade 2-placed 5-Tempus Volat is a lot better than his recent disappointing eighth-place finish when not cornering well going into the first turn and then stuck behind traffic in the later portions of the stretch drive in the aforementioned March 14 event. The Not This Time colt makes his second start of the bench today for Leonard Powell and will improve substantially. Two sprints to a route 2-Charlie’s to Blame should be able to clear this field on the stretch out for Eurton, while making his third start of the form cycle. The 4-year-old son of Blame adds Lasix today and will be the run to run down late.
Race #7: Selections: 4-1-2
The Andy Harris-trained 4-Leyas Candy is the deserving favorite off his recent second against slightly better on April 17 over this one-mile trip, posting a field’s best last-out (70) dirt Beyer. The 7-year-old gelding is reunited with winning pilot, Armando Ayuso. 1-Jeweled Shillelagh has been trounced in recent grass tries but returns to dirt, drops to the bottom career-low $5k claiming tag, and adds blinkers today for trainer Ryan Hanson. He’ll likely try to bottom out this field, breaking from the rail. 2-Upstart Yankee is winless since November 2024 and hasn’t been that competitive in recent tries, but makes his second start off the six-month layoff today and should get a live race flow to close into.
Race #8: Selections: 5-8-1
The six-time winning 5-Donic has fired back-to-back (88) turf Beyers (par for this level) in both of his most recent turf sprint tries and now goes first off the Mullins claim. The veteran 8-year-old gelding has had plenty of recovery time coming off that last nose score on Feb. 21 (against a trio of today’s returning rivals), and is likely to fire again for the top barn. Berrio replaces Hernandez, who has shipped out to Kentucky. 8-The Old Nine (Ire) was a sharp 3 ¾ length winner off the claim for conditioner Jorge Periban and has worked four times since that sharp victory for his new connections. 1-Mubtadaa ran very well, considering he was returning from a 457-day layoff on March 20 and has back figures that are better than most of these, if he can get back to his 2024 form. Trainer Vladimir Cerin has had a fabulous year, and this gelding loves the Santa Anita lawn (8-3-2-2).
KENTUCKY OAKS Race #13: (10-2-9-1)
10-Prom Queen
2-Zany
9-Always a Runner
1-Explora
