Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Just Deal (Race 4)
Happy Kentucky Derby Day! Special Derby selections located below the Santa Anita analysis.
Race #1: Selections: 2-4-6
2-Bad Manners improved 15 Beyer points with Lasix added in start number two when battling gamely on the lead, before surrendering grudgingly late to third off a seven-month layoff. The $700k daughter of Into Mischief adds blinkers today for the all-important third career try and should be ready for a top effort. 4-All in the Game goes turf to dirt with the addition of blinkers on the turnback this afternoon, having hit the board in four of six career tries. The Grazen filly should fall into a favorable stalking trip today, looking to break through in start number seven. 6-Mizumi (by Justify) debuts for team Baffert off the barn’s typical flashy a.m. drills, and this outfit continues to click at a strong 35% with dirt sprint firsters at Santa Anita the past five years.
Race #2: Selections: 1-4-3
A multiple winner over the track and distance, 1-Yacowlef (Ire) was second behind Irish Royalty in his most recent effort on March 28 and will look to turn the tables on that rival today, going first off the claim for conditioner Hector Palma. This barn is a strong 5-for-14 (36%) with a lofty $4.60 ROI with turf new acquisitions the past five years. 4-Irish Royalty has won two of his last three turf sprints for trainer Doug O’Neill and figures to get another favorable upfront-pressing trip today on the class rise. A beaten favorite in the last pair, 3-Anmer Hall rallied for the place spot behind the top choice when last seen over the downhill course back in February.
Race #3: Selections: 4-5-3
First off the claim 4-Duran lost all realistic chance when breaking a step slow and running up on the heels of a rival on April 3, when much further back in the early stages than he prefers to be. A better break this afternoon should put this 6-year-old gelding on or close to the lead for the new barn. 5-Mighty Kai steps up off the Doug O’Neill claim after a solid 3 ½-length win on April 17, for a barn that’s above average with dirt route new acquisitions. This jockey-trainer combo teamed up to win with first off the claim Resemblance back in February. 3-Kingmeister returns off a 10-month layoff for trainer Bill McLean and had won two of three before hitting the sidelines, including a very competitive (78) dirt Beyer last June.
Race #4: Selections: 1-7-6
The O’Neill-trained 1-Just Deal returns to Southern California off a recent third at Keeneland on April 8, when off a step slow. The 4-year-old gelding adds blinkers today, slashes his claiming tag in half, and should prove tough to beat, making his third try of the form cycle. Recent maiden winner 7-Next Trick looks well-placed for his first crack against winners and is eligible to improve further, making his third start of the form cycle off an extensive layoff. 6-Stagger Lee hasn’t been out since March 2024 and has never tried dirt, but returns for a drastically reduced $10k claiming tag as a first-time gelding and has worked steadily for today’s return to action.
Race #5: Selections: 7-5-6
7-Miss Practical was declared a non-starter in the Irish O’Brien stakes and should rebound today on the stretch out while posting the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (75). The Practical Joke filly has drilled four solid a.m. drills since then and should be forwardly placed today. The graded stakes-placed 5-Miso Phansy gets some class relief returning off the eight-month freshening for conditioner Leonard Powell, and the 4-year-old has proven she can fire fresh. 6-Headed for Om goes first off the claim for trainer Tim Yakteen off a non-threatening, disappointing eighth on March 13. This 5-year-old mare has run well sprinting over this course in the past and can move forward today for a barn that’s
Race #6: Selections: 3-7-5
The top pair are hard to separate, running very similar last-out main track Beyers. 3-La Silenciosa scampered away to a 7 ½-length maiden win on April 5 in career start number two and looks well-placed for her first crack against winners. Jaramillo sticks with this filly and should be quick enough to clear this field. 7-Redheaded Reba is another recent maiden winner. The daughter of Om is nicely drawn outside today, exiting a sharp 5-1 debut win over a next-out winner. 5-Donttellmewhattodo gets some class relief this afternoon, dropping out of a recent second in the April 4 Evening Jewel S. This filly has hit the board in three straight for the Papaprodromou barn.
Race #7: Selections: 1-7-2
1-Seal Team (GB) ranged up on the outside, looking like he was going to blow past the field in the American (G3), only to flatten out late. The 6-year-old makes his third start of the form cycle today for Mandella and should be fit enough for his best try. Whether that’s good enough remains a question mark, given that he hasn’t found the winner’s circle since November 2023. 7-Never worse than first or second in five lifetime tries, the lightly raced 7-The Padre (Ire) had a nice prep for this with his first start off an eight-month layoff on April 3, when finishing second for D’Amato. A proven graded stakes winner, but will need to improve by a few lengths to compete with the top choice. 2-Flashiest rarely wins but is usually close, and is fully capable of grabbing another’s share of this with another inside draw.
Race #8: Selections: 1-7-6
1-Vegas Nightclub (by Clubhouse Ride) must negotiate the tricky rail draw but has trained sharply for her long-awaited 5-year-old debut for Baltas and lures Ayuso at first-asking, who had a fabulous stand last week. 7-Susan Yvonne flashed speed and tired at 64-1 in her March 8 unveiling and now drops in for a tag in start number two. Improvement likely. 6-Surfin the Coast debuts for the red-hot Mullins barn off a steady worktab, but is by West Coast, who is only 2-for-66 (3%) with 3-year-old & up debut runners.
Race #9: Selections: 4-9-5
A competitive group of improving 3-year-old fillies tackle the turf in this one-mile Maiden Special Weight event to kick off the growing popular $3 Late Pick 3. 4-Lookin At Diamond rallied belatedly at 48-1 in a decent unveiling April 4 for conditioner Leonard Powell and now stretches out for start number two. The 3-year-old daughter of Lookin At Lucky deserves a long look this afternoon with any normal second-out progression, for a barn that’s 8-for-34 (24%) with a lofty $4.81 ROI with second-time turf starters. Her stablemate 9-Nerida (Fr) makes the all-important third U.S. try off an improving Beyer pattern and recent runner-up finish on March 21. She’s worked four times over the synthetic track since that last encouraging run and is by the French-bred G1 winner Zelzal. 5-Soul Sister is a logical threat off her recent runner-up try and (71) turf Beyer back on Feb. 28. The filly has been training steadily in the interim.
Race #10: Selections: 7-2-1
The seven-time winning 7-Big City Lights was disappointing in his last two tries–the Stormy Liberal five-furlong turf sprint and Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). He returns off the mini-freshening for Mandella and is training with a purpose, firing off back-to-back snappy bullet a.m. drills. The Grade 2 placed 2-Extensive is back off a year hiatus for the McCarthy barn, having hit the board in all five career starts. Today’s seven-furlong trip looks like a good spot to kick off his 2026 campaign. 1-Momad also returns from a year’s layoff for conditioner Leonard Powell on the class rise and was a sharp winner with a lofty career-best (96) Beyer before hitting the sidelines. He’s trained smartly for his return to action.
Race #11: Selections: 8-3-6
8-Koekkoek (GB) has run well in both U.S. tries, posting back-to-back second-place finishes in solid time for the D’Amato barn. An improving Byer pattern and field’s best last-out grass Beyer (81) make him the gelding to beat in the nightcap. His stablemate 3-Melismatic (Ire) rallied for third after hopping at the start in his first Stateside try when well-backed on March 15. The sophomore colt by multiple G1 winner Space Blues should move forward on the stretch out, making his second try off the eight-month layoff. 6-Post Game makes career try number 10 this afternoon, but has good gate speed, while finishing third in four consecutive efforts since switching to turf. He makes his second try off the bench today and finished behind repeat winner Cal Me Cory in last.
Race #12: KENTUCKY DERBY 18-15-7-12
18-Further Ado
15-Emerging Market
7-Danon Bourbon
12-Chief Wallabee
