Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 6-Queen Maxima (Race 9)
Race #1: Selections: 8-3-1-5
8-Monumental carved out some snappy early splits before tiring to fourth at 38-1 in an encouraging debut try for conditioner Richard Baltas. The Tacitus 3-year-old gets a cozy outside draw for start number two and is dangerous with any normal second-out progression. 3-Legal Heir makes career try number seven after flashing solid early speed and tiring in his last four grass route tries. The Nyquist colt shortens up to a sprint this afternoon, having run close to par in his last several efforts, and is a logical fit once again. 1-Bako Country finished an even fifth on debut when dismissed at 29-1 for trainer Carla Gaines, but is eligible to move forward off that effort for a barn that has above-average stats with second-time turf sprint starters. Jaramillo sticks. 5-My Eyes On You (by Yaupon) debuts for the red-hot Glatt barn off a solid worktab, including a “best of 83” four-furlong bullet in :46.3 on May 10. This jockey-trainer combo scored with turf firster Tap the Gin at 6-1 back on March 15.
Race #2: Selections: 3-5-4
In keeping with his good-race, bad-race pattern, 3-Ghazaaly should run well this afternoon for Team O’Neill, and this group could be running for the underneath shares if he repeats that (94) Beyer earned two-back at this same trip. 5-Whiskyginandbrandy stretches back out to a mile, where he was a 9-1 winner two back for the Knapp barn. The 4-year-old gelding figures to get a favorable, upfront-pressing journey with Fresu back aboard. The 8-time winning 4-Clouseau returns from a five-month freshening for the Papaprodromou barn off a spirited and steady worktab, and has proven he can fire fresh. The question is, however, whether he’ll get an adequate pace to run into.
Race #3: Selections: 7-2-5
A popular commodity at the claiming box, 7-Shangrilama (Ire) goes out for the Peter Miller barn this afternoon off the April 17 purchase, and this ultra-consistent mare has traded punches with several of these in recent tries. This 6-for-17 mare figures to get a favorable stalking trip with the outside draw. 2-Blessed Angel is an interesting shipper from Turf Paradise moving to turf today. The 6-year-old mare has never tried grass, doesn’t have much turf breeding to speak of, but does have good gate speed and lures Hernandez for conditioner Vann Belvoir. The Steve Kanpp-trained 5-Invincible Molly (GB) parlayed a perfect trip to get the best of the top choice in her most recent win, but finished behind her two and three back.
Race #4: Selections: 1-3-4
Back in the barn of Isidro Tamayo, 1-Grandisimo holds a double Beyer advantage over the rest of this field and exits a recent second and win two back, facing similar. The 4-year-old gelding should prove tough to overhaul with today’s advantageous rail draw at short odds. 3-Ballyhooligan pressed the pace before weakening to fourth when dropped to this level against a trio of today’s returning rivals, and deserves another look switching to 7 lb. bug boy. 4-Tee N Off was well-beaten by the top choice in the last, but goes second off the Knapp claim, who is 4-for-18, 22% with a positive ROI with dirt routes at Santa Anita.
Race #5: Selections: 8-5-3
A multiple winner over the track and distance, 8-Grazed overcame a troubled trip to win on April 17 versus similar and sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (82). A repeat is well within reach for the Miller barn. 5-Miles Finch makes his second try off the nine-month layoff, exiting a tiring fourth on April 17. The 4-year-old son of Vronsky came back to fire a bullet four furlongs over the synthetic track on May 8 and is likely to move forward this afternoon, second off the bench, for trainer John Sadler. The speedy 3-Hothead returns after more than a year’s layoff for the Glatt barn and has been training sharply for his return to action. This jockey-trainer combo scored with a 300-plus day returnee, Money Makes Money, on April 30.
Race #6: Selections: 1-2-5
A beaten favorite in the last three, 1-Twisted Humor goes first off the claim for trainer Jesus Uranga, having hit the board in four of five lifetime tries. This filly has speed from the fence and is a logical threat once again. Blinkers on 2-Play for Me rallied well for the place spot, when facing a trio of today’s returning rivals, earning the field’s best last out main track Beyer (57). 5-Conquest Sue drops another notch for conditioner Peter Eurton after flattening out as the 2-1 tepid betting choice on April 26. Jaramillo sticks.
Race #7: Selections: 8-6-1
8-Packs a Wahlop was a solid gate-to-wire winner on April 2 at this one-mile trip for trainer John Sadler and looks primed for the repeat on the class hike. The 6-year-old gelding returned to fire a bullet five furlongs over the synthetic course in :59.4 on May 10. A runner-up in last, 6-City Exile (GB) co-tops the field’s best last turf Beyer for the Papaprodromou barn, when facing several of these, and now shortens up to a mile. 1-Re Armed Jon goes two sprints to a route for trainer Victor Garcia with competitive grass sprint speed figures, and this gelding’s dam side breeding suggests he might actually prefer going longer. He figures to trip out nicely from the fence.
Race #8: Selections: 7-8-4
7-Tate Batz has been beaten by double digits in her last pair of tries against Maiden Special Weight types, but moves back to sprinting over the main track on the class plunge and should prove tough to reel in with an alert break. This barn has been struggling as of late, but is 7 for 25 (28%) with a $2.42 ROI with MDSW to MDCLM dirt sprint starters at Santa Anita the past five years. Well-backed on debut, 8-Lively Girl should appreciate getting off the rail today and moving to the far outside after breaking a step slow, rushing up into contention, and then fading late while tiring. The sophomore filly drops from $32k maiden claimers down to today’s bottom $12,500 level. 4-Dame It Dani was a sharp second in her Turf Paradise MDSW April 1 grass route debut and now switches barns, moves to dirt, and is drops in for today’s tag.
Race #9: Selections: 6-3-9
Downhill course specialist 6-Queen Maxima drops out of three consecutive graded stakes into this softer spot today for trainer Jeff Mullins and looks primed to get back on the winning track, third start off the bench. The 8-time winning 5-year-old mare has never been off the board on the Santa Anita turf (7-5-1-1) and figures to get a favorable stalking journey with regular rider Juan Hernandez. 3-Amorita was a solid runner-up in the Grade 3 Monrovia against a trio of today’s returning rivals, with a career-best turf Beyer (91), and could have another forward move forthcoming, third try of the form cycle. 9-Certitude (Fr) is ultra-consistent for conditioner John Sadler, having hit the board in 11 of her last 12 starts, and figures to be hustled along from today’s outside draw by Rosario for optimum position.
Race #10: Selections: 10-8-2
10-Tis Sunrise was runner-up at 20-1 when last seen back on March 6, a “key” race that’s produced three next-out winners. The 4-year-old daughter of English Channel sports the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (67) and has worked five times since that good finish. Her outside draw should not hinder her late-closing running style for trainer Mike Puype. 8-All in the Game is an eight-start maiden but lost all chance in her most recent main track try when fractious in the gate, breaking slowly, and outrun. The Grazen filly moves back to turf this afternoon, where she was a solid third behind next-out winner Jennys Wine Girl and is reunited with jockey Juan Hernandez. 2-Judy Lynn Starr showed improved speed on the surface switch and stretch-out in career start number two and should be all set for a top try today while making all-important third start. The 4-year-old filly continues to work swiftly over the Santa Anita synthetic course.
